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Prediction markets for Intelligent Infrastructure

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

Jun 1, 2:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

16.75%chance

708876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4766

1407

Will a US presidential candidate make an anti data center remark during their campaign for 2028?

Aug 14, 5:38 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

95.11%chance

328829

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4409

227

Will we get Rouge AI before 2031?

Mar 10, 2:41 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

21.5%chance

427083

OptionVotes

NO

YES

977

921

Will we get Rouge AI before 2032?

Mar 12, 11:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

20.7%chance

295025

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1409

832

Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2030?

Jun 2, 9:14 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.76%chance

413580

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2081

481

Will there be an AI loss of control incident that causes over $100 million in damages in 2026?

Apr 1, 7:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.4%chance

273083

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1630

758

Will the AI Data Center Moratorium Act (S.4214) pass Congress by end of the 119th Congress?

Mar 27, 3:22 AMFeb 1, 11:59 AM

6.81%chance

92795

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3699

270

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will Kyiv remain in the 10 least livable cities in 2026?

Jan 1, 4:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

86.7%chance

152121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2553

392

Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2035?

Jun 1, 12:28 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.81%chance

281645

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1256

796

Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba in 2026

Jan 13, 3:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.02%chance

131010

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1328

904

Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?

May 4, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

8940

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

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