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Prediction markets for Intelligent Infrastructure

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

Jun 1, 2:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

10.48%chance

7310686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6576

1130

Will a US presidential candidate make an anti data center remark during their campaign for 2028?

Aug 14, 5:38 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

95.11%chance

328829

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4409

227

Will we get Rouge AI before 2031?

Mar 10, 2:41 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

21.5%chance

427083

OptionVotes

NO

YES

977

921

Will we get Rouge AI before 2032?

Mar 12, 11:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

20.7%chance

295025

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1409

832

Will there be an AI loss of control incident that causes over $100 million in damages in 2026?

Apr 1, 7:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.89%chance

324286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1764

715

Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2030?

Jun 2, 9:14 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

21.5%chance

423688

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1911

523

Will the AI Data Center Moratorium Act (S.4214) pass Congress by end of the 119th Congress?

Mar 27, 3:22 AMFeb 1, 11:59 AM

6.81%chance

92795

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3699

270

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will AI technology and infrastructure and AI itself become extinct before 2100?

Sep 30, 8:09 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

1.42%chance

62294

OptionVotes

YES

NO

981

57

Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2035?

Jun 1, 12:28 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.81%chance

281645

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1256

796

Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba in 2026

Jan 13, 3:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.02%chance

131010

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1328

904

Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?

May 4, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

8940

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

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