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Prediction markets for Intelligent Infrastructure

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

Jun 1, 2:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

26.5%chance

617440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3369

1782

Will we get Rouge AI before 2032?

Mar 12, 11:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

9.23%chance

264684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2710

623

Will we get Rouge AI before 2031?

Mar 10, 2:41 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

9.94%chance

263666

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1896

811

Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2030?

Jun 2, 9:14 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.76%chance

413580

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2081

481

Will there be an AI loss of control incident that causes over $100 million in damages in 2026?

Apr 1, 7:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.7%chance

262978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1666

746

Will the AI Data Center Moratorium Act (S.4214) pass Congress by end of the 119th Congress?

Mar 27, 3:22 AMFeb 1, 11:59 AM

7.77%chance

82748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3445

290

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Which Chinese tech companies announce a formal AI partnership with a Russian entity before 2027?

Oct 29, 2:22 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

41525

OptionProbability

Huawei

Alibaba

ByteDance

Xiaomi

Lenovo

Cambricon

Tencent

Baidu

SenseTime

Zhipu AI

Moonshot AI

iFlyTek

Deepseek

MiniMax

41

41

26

19

19

19

18

18

18

18

18

18

17

17

Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2035?

Jun 1, 12:28 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

31.53%chance

251478

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1474

679

Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba in 2026

Jan 13, 3:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.72%chance

13910

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1228

923

Will Kyiv remain in the 10 least livable cities in 2026?

Jan 1, 4:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

62.93%chance

4319

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1303

768

Will Rystad's Gulf energy infrastructure repair estimate exceed 35 billion on June 30, 2026?

Mar 30, 10:30 PMJun 30, 4:00 AM

91.89%chance

2285

OptionVotes

NO

YES

291

14

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