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Prediction markets for Interface

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.07%chance

347402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1458

688

Will humans send AND receive a message telepathically via brain machine interface before 2026?

Jan 10, 8:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.33%chance

653808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1561

807

Will a fully functional brain-computer interface be commercially available by 2030?

Jan 14, 8:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.83%chance

391989

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

876

In 2030, will most human-computer interactions happen through a LLM-interface?

Feb 4, 7:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.36%chance

611791

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

1017

Will we see non-invasive holographic brain-computer interfaces with <100 neuron precision by 2030 ?

May 19, 6:48 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.04%chance

171095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1686

593

Will Brain-Computer interfaces be widespread by 2035?

Mar 3, 9:48 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

62.85%chance

27900

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1442

548

Will we see non-invasive holographic brain-computer interfaces with <10 000 neuron precision by 2030 ?

May 19, 7:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.04%chance

4885

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1881

532

Will a $1k non-invasive brain interface handle 100 commands before 2027?

Feb 9, 2:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.75%chance

15834

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1596

794

Will Coefficient Giving set up LLM agents with org accounts and a remote worker-like interface by 5/18/27?

May 20, 1:17 AMMay 18, 12:00 AM

63.18%chance

4511

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1310

763

Will smartphones be substantially replaced with voice LLM interfaces by 2030?

Feb 17, 8:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.57%chance

14346

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

982

Will we develop a commercial computer to brain interface by 2028?

Aug 1, 7:24 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

48.67%chance

13292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1067

927

Will we see non-invasive holographic brain-computer interfaces with <1000 neuron precision by 2030 ?

May 19, 7:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

48.13%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1038

963

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