Interim News

NO

YES

NO

Delcy Rodríguez remains as acting president of Venezuela through 15 February 2026

Will María Machado return to Venezuela before 2026 June 1?

Nicolás Maduro is convicted and incarcerated in a US prison

Despite all unlawful actions by the US, venezuelan economy prospers.

US deploys ground troops to Venezuela

Will the Venezuelan government officially announce early presidential elections before 1 June 2026?

UN Security Council passes a resolution condemning US actions in Venezuela

Either the US or Venezuela declares war on the other

Other

Alireza Arafi

Hashem Hosseini Bushehri

Ongoing “interim” arrangement / power-sharing structure.

No one (regime change, system change) = no Supreme Leader

Power struggle between 1 or more that sees rival Supreme Leaders both with actually realistic claims (based on authority/endorsements by senior clerics and religious figures etc).

Reza Pahlavi

Regular opposition broadcasts hacking Iran TV 3 more times. Like the State TV/IRIB satellite hack.

US/Israeli announce Iran navy annihilated. All surface ships bigger than 10 tons. Small subs also not counted

A brigade or base commander in any city switches sides

One or more Town(s), city(s), declare as free of iran regime control for over 2 days

Interim council fractures, or all current dead or one member defects publicly

YES

Other

Mark Peller (current COO)

John Elbon (interim CEO)

NO

YES

Below 90

90 - 99

100 - 109

110 - 119

120 - 130

Below 0.6

0.6 - 0.7

0.7 - 0.8

0.80 - 0.9

0.90 - 1.0