Interim News

Will Elon Musk be the world's wealthiest person on January 1, 2027?

Jan 4, 9:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.86%chance

4513295

OptionVotes

YES

3763

Next minister president of Saxony-Anhalt?

Sep 6, 7:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1710703

OptionProbability

Ulrich Siegmund

Other

Sven Schulze

Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

58.57%chance

69585

OptionVotes

YES

11889

8411

Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

68.3%chance

49579

OptionVotes

YES

14678

6813

Who will be the next (non-interim) leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia?

Sep 20, 11:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33927

OptionProbability

Lorne Doerkson

Caroline Elliott

Iain Black

Yuri Fulmer

Harman Bhangu

Trevor Halford

Other

James Moore

US–Venezuela conflict prop bets

Jan 5, 7:34 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

343341

OptionProbability

Delcy Rodríguez remains as acting president of Venezuela through 15 February 2026

Nicolás Maduro is convicted and incarcerated in a US prison

Despite all unlawful actions by the US, venezuelan economy prospers.

US deploys ground troops to Venezuela

Either the US or Venezuela declares war on the other

UN Security Council passes a resolution condemning US actions in Venezuela

María Corina Machado becomes interim president of Venezuela by 31 March 2026

Will María Machado return to Venezuela before 2026 June 1?

Will the Venezuelan government officially announce early presidential elections before 1 June 2026?

100

Specific Events in the Iran War

Mar 2, 11:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

202167

OptionProbability

US/Israeli announce Iran navy annihilated. All surface ships bigger than 10 tons. Small subs also not counted

Regular opposition broadcasts hacking Iran TV 3 more times. Like the State TV/IRIB satellite hack.

One or more Town(s), city(s), declare as free of iran regime control for over 2 days

Interim council fractures, or all current dead or one member defects publicly

A brigade or base commander in any city switches sides

High Profile flips - 2+ named officers go on video via Starlink calling on units to stand down or defect.

100

When Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader?

Mar 9, 4:17 PMMar 9, 4:14 PM

121773

OptionProbability

Other

Alireza Arafi

Hashem Hosseini Bushehri

Ongoing “interim” arrangement / power-sharing structure.

No one (regime change, system change) = no Supreme Leader

Power struggle between 1 or more that sees rival Supreme Leaders both with actually realistic claims (based on authority/endorsements by senior clerics and religious figures etc).

Reza Pahlavi

Ari Larijani

Who will be the next (non-interim) leader of the British Columbia New Democratic Party?

Oct 25, 6:18 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

185

OptionProbability

Other

Mike Farnworth

Josie Osborne

Niki Sharma

Brad West

Ravi Kahlon

Is Emmett Shear the interim ex-CEO of OpenAI?

Nov 24, 11:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.02%chance

377

OptionVotes

YES

147

Will Saudi Aramco Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:04 PMMar 8, 10:59 PM

OptionProbability

Below 90

90 - 99

100 - 109

110 - 119

120 - 130

Above 130

Will BMW Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:18 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

OptionProbability

Below 0.6

0.6 - 0.7

0.7 - 0.8

0.80 - 0.9

0.90 - 1.0

Above 1.0

Interim News

Prediction markets for Interim

Prediction markets for Interim

Prediction markets for Interim

Will Elon Musk be the world's wealthiest person on January 1, 2027?

Next minister president of Saxony-Anhalt?

Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?

Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?

Who will be the next (non-interim) leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia?

US–Venezuela conflict prop bets

Specific Events in the Iran War

When Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader?

Who will be the next (non-interim) leader of the British Columbia New Democratic Party?

Is Emmett Shear the interim ex-CEO of OpenAI?

Will Saudi Aramco Emissions end at?

Will BMW Emissions end at?

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