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Prediction markets for International Developed Markets

Will Chittagong Bangladesh be declared the most liveable city in the world by the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 5:17 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1.11%chance

24178356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

94290

1061

US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?

Feb 3, 3:21 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

18.04%chance

8434685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2131

469

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

xAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Sep 28, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.74%chance

122974

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1067

937

If the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran falls by 2030, will Reza Pahlavi lead the new government a year later?

Jan 8, 12:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.48%chance

241978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1324

871

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

15.88%chance

91724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2301

435

Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?

Jun 10, 7:27 PMJun 11, 3:59 AM

40.38%chance

131556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

823

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

Jan 18, 10:56 AMMay 31, 10:59 PM

45.88%chance

91293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

921

Will I make 10k mana in profit on manifold market before 2027

Mar 4, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.06%chance

131094

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1777

563

Will the Don't Build It March happen by EOY 2026?

Nov 18, 4:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.7%chance

9525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1372

729

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

819

Will the official Pokémon MMO release?

Jan 18, 9:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.66%chance

5177

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1113

898

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