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Prediction markets for International Developed Markets

Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?

Sep 8, 10:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.14%chance

815736966

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8770

1182

U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?

Jun 9, 2:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.16%chance

4344500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128439

102675

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?

Mar 24, 2:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

185405

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10000

10000

Will I make 10k mana in profit on manifold market before 2027

Mar 4, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.14%chance

204775

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2571

389

Will something happen in AI every single week between now and Dec 31st?

Aug 6, 2:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.87%chance

152961

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2073

482

If the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran falls by 2030, will Reza Pahlavi lead the new government a year later?

Jan 8, 12:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.29%chance

252294

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1624

788

Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?

Jun 10, 7:27 PMJun 11, 3:59 AM

51.14%chance

141756

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

977

Long Thanh airport becomes a national embarrassment for Vietnam?

Apr 25, 6:51 AMMay 2, 6:48 AM

25.55%chance

111632

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1707

586

Will an autonomous robot beat an Olympic champion at table tennis before 2028?

Apr 22, 7:20 PMDec 31, 8:08 PM

21.57%chance

121502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1907

524

Will WW3 happen before GTA7?

Dec 1, 2:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.26%chance

231108

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

868

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.17%chance

16992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

977

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