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Prediction markets for International Developed Markets

US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?

Feb 3, 3:21 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

1.79%chance

318223776

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7414

135

Will "Mythos-class" model be called Mythos?

Apr 11, 11:35 PMDec 31, 2:59 PM

15.27%chance

4229826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1834

771

Will Africa be a global power house in the nest few months

Mar 14, 4:20 PMJun 30, 2:01 PM

13.98%chance

4410604

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2481

403

U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?

Jun 9, 2:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.68%chance

2910483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108524

104615

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?

Mar 24, 2:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.6%chance

154159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13624

8759

If the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran falls by 2030, will Reza Pahlavi lead the new government a year later?

Jan 8, 12:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.48%chance

241978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1324

871

Long Thanh airport becomes a national embarrassment for Vietnam?

Apr 25, 6:51 AMMay 2, 6:48 AM

27.79%chance

111598

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1612

620

Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?

Jun 10, 7:27 PMJun 11, 3:59 AM

40.38%chance

131556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

823

Will an autonomous robot beat an Olympic champion at table tennis before 2028?

Apr 22, 7:20 PMDec 31, 8:08 PM

21.57%chance

121502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1907

524

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

Will the Don't Build It March happen by EOY 2026?

Nov 18, 4:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.16%chance

10675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1522

657

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