International Paper News

10 months ago

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.66%chance

834517250

OptionVotes

YES

59065

10415

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.06%chance

109171214

OptionVotes

YES

81796

26531

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Jun 10, 7:37 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

57.5%chance

264136061

OptionVotes

YES

1164

860

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19745815

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

3477

288

Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)

Jun 26, 6:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

93795

OptionProbability

< 2 years

< 1 year

< 4 years

< 10 years

< 1 month

< 25 years

< 4 months

>= 25 years

< 1 week

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

16%chance

132054

OptionVotes

YES

2291

436

When will Chuck Schumer cease to be Leader of the Senate Democrats?

Dec 28, 5:47 PMJan 30, 11:59 PM

31325

OptionProbability

Before Nov 2028

Before Jul 2028

Before Jul 2027

Before Jan 2028

Before Jan 2027

Before Jul 2026

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

Jan 27, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.34%chance

9260

OptionVotes

YES

294

Will the US Supreme Court issue a preliminary or permanent injunction halting Tariffs on China?

Apr 6, 8:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.76%chance

14236

OptionVotes

YES

215

Will the COMAC C949 be supersonic?

Mar 31, 2:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.09%chance

347

OptionVotes

YES

143

Will at least one major LLM publicly document graph-based RAG as a core part of its production architecture in 2026?

Jan 20, 10:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

110

International Paper News

Top stories

Prediction markets for International Paper

Prediction markets for International Paper

Prediction markets for International Paper

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

When will Chuck Schumer cease to be Leader of the Senate Democrats?

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

Will the US Supreme Court issue a preliminary or permanent injunction halting Tariffs on China?

Will the COMAC C949 be supersonic?

Will at least one major LLM publicly document graph-based RAG as a core part of its production architecture in 2026?

Latest stories