International Paper News

9 months ago

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.86%chance

831515860

OptionVotes

YES

58238

10505

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.58%chance

103162323

OptionVotes

YES

108745

17863

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Jun 10, 7:37 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

64%chance

262135244

OptionVotes

YES

1334

751

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19544914

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

3477

288

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

16%chance

132054

OptionVotes

YES

2291

436

When will Chuck Schumer cease to be Leader of the Senate Democrats?

Dec 28, 5:47 PMJan 30, 11:59 PM

31325

OptionProbability

Before Nov 2028

Before Jul 2028

Before Jul 2027

Before Jan 2028

Before Jan 2027

Before Jul 2026

Am I worthy of moral consideration [Convince the Machine #5]

May 4, 5:43 AMMay 18, 5:43 AM

44.43%chance

17237

OptionVotes

YES

635

553

Will the US Supreme Court issue a preliminary or permanent injunction halting Tariffs on China?

Apr 6, 8:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.76%chance

14236

OptionVotes

YES

215

Will I get at least one 7 on Paper 1, 2, or 3 of M26 IB Math A&A HL Exam?

Apr 13, 1:54 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

67%chance

1199

OptionVotes

YES

1199

886

Will the US Appeals Court issue a preliminary or permanent injunction halting Tariffs on China?

Apr 6, 8:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

8100

OptionVotes

YES

200

Will at least one major LLM publicly document graph-based RAG as a core part of its production architecture in 2026?

Jan 20, 10:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

110

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Prediction markets for International Paper

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

When will Chuck Schumer cease to be Leader of the Senate Democrats?

Am I worthy of moral consideration [Convince the Machine #5]

Will the US Supreme Court issue a preliminary or permanent injunction halting Tariffs on China?

Will I get at least one 7 on Paper 1, 2, or 3 of M26 IB Math A&A HL Exam?

Will the US Appeals Court issue a preliminary or permanent injunction halting Tariffs on China?

Will at least one major LLM publicly document graph-based RAG as a core part of its production architecture in 2026?

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