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Prediction markets for International Space Station

Will the International Space Station be decommissioned by the end of 2025?

Nov 4, 7:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1%chance

305347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5431

873

Will the International Space Station be functional and crewed in 2025?

Jul 29, 1:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

97.4%chance

323376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3198

840

Will International Space Station be in orbit on January 1, 2030?

Mar 21, 2:02 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

77.96%chance

432203

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1109

980

Will there be fewer than 2 Russian cosmonauts in the International Space Station crew in December 2025?

Jul 26, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.47%chance

231512

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1033

894

Will NASA award a contract to a new commercial partner to develop a spacesuit by mid 2026?

Jun 25, 9:32 PMJun 1, 1:59 PM

75%chance

41305

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

58

SpaceX announces decommissioning of Dragon spacecraft before September 3, 2025

Jun 6, 5:11 AMSep 2, 11:59 PM

5.09%chance

6351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

432

23

Will the international space station be officially decommissioned before the end of 2030?

May 13, 3:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.46%chance

10292

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

During which decade will people establish a permanent presence on the moon?

Jan 17, 11:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8288

OptionProbability

2030s

2040s

2050s

None of the above

2020s

31

26

24

16

3

Will there be off-Earth habitable volume totalling one cubic kilometre by 2050?

Jan 31, 3:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

41.73%chance

4259

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1182

846

In 2030, will there be a mouse on the moon?

Dec 10, 8:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.83%chance

6230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

208

48

Which countries will join both the US's Artemis Accords and China/Russia's International Lunar Research Station?

Apr 16, 6:29 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

4185

OptionProbability

India

UAE

Kazakhstan

Turkey

Brazil

Egypt

Thailand

Saudi Arabia

82

59

50

44

44

44

44

44

Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?

Mar 16, 1:36 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

40.48%chance

6125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

82

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