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Prediction markets for International Strategy

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

57.81%chance

404135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1117

894

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.03%chance

302990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1105

905

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.17%chance

16992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

977

Will I get accepted by these colleges if i apply?

Oct 14, 10:00 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM

11388

OptionProbability

Any Ivy League (RD)

UChicago (EDI)

UChicago (EDII)

MIT (EA or RD)

64

28

28

24

Which happens first? [Ads in AI][OpenAI vs Anthropic]

Feb 9, 7:33 PMFeb 10, 5:59 AM

7302

OptionProbability

OpenAI significantly expands the scope of Ads in ChatGPT

OpenAI removes ads in ChatGPT

Anthropic adds Ads in one of their primary AI apps (currently Claude)

88

8

4

Will Glencore's Congo deal result in a 2% increase in global copper supply by July 2026?

Feb 17, 12:02 PMFeb 17, 12:02 PM

7.15%chance

4297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

360

28

Will Japan produce hydrogen with nuclear power before 2031?

May 9, 8:02 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

61.3%chance

4165

OptionVotes

NO

YES

126

79

Daily distribution ETF by end of 2026?

Oct 26, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.9%chance

4132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

230

43

When will Delta Airlines provide inflight wifi with less than 50ms of latency?

Mar 2, 4:08 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

140

OptionProbability

2036

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2026

2027

2028

20

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

7

7

7

Will Indonesia primary aluminum production exceed 1 Mt as of October 2027?

May 4, 5:16 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

68.86%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

92

Whom of his own (individuals belonging to group) will Trump get rid of related to Venezuela (during term)? (add)

Jan 4, 7:17 AMJan 20, 11:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

Combatant commanders/Joint Chiefs

Cabinet member

50

47

How iGaming SEO Helps Improve Search Rankings and Drive Organic Traffic

Oct 27, 9:49 AMDec 31, 9:49 AM

50%chance

12

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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