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Top stories

Brazil and Canada Resume Mercosur Trade Talks Ahead of Maninder Sidhu Visit; U.S. 50% Tariff and Bolsonaro Lobbying Strain Brazil-U.S. Relations

Brazil and Canada Resume Mercosur Trade Talks Ahead of Maninder Sidhu Visit; U.S. 50% Tariff and Bolsonaro Lobbying Strain Brazil-U.S. Relations

Authors

8

1 year ago

Prediction markets for International Trade

Hantavirus Pandemic 2026-2027?

May 7, 1:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.51%chance

2495598

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10714

4099

U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?

Jun 9, 2:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.9%chance

4039927

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132578

102314

OPQA (OpenAI-proof QA) hits 20% before 2027

May 30, 7:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.61%chance

1723452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10891

3200

Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030?

Jul 4, 10:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.68%chance

613182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1595

589

Will legal international trade in recreational cannabis happen before 2034?

Jan 2, 2:13 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

76.83%chance

202334

OptionVotes

NO

YES

731

97

Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.4% in 2026?

May 1, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.84%chance

141714

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1377

507

Will any currency overtake the US dollar in international trade by 2050?

Apr 21, 5:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.5%chance

491671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1287

656

Will AI customer phone lines be normal by 2027?

Jun 14, 8:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.13%chance

371404

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1130

931

Will North and South Korea be reunified any time through 2043

Sep 15, 11:31 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

30.44%chance

15681

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1014

940

Will Donald Trump get more judges appointed in his second term than his first?

Nov 7, 2:42 AMJan 16, 7:59 AM

59.42%chance

5410

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1210

826

Will Aughinish announce production curtailment or major layoffs by end-2026?

Aug 8, 1:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.38%chance

2351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1351

740

Will the BRICS nations officially launch a common digital settlement currency for international trade by the end of 2026

Feb 2, 11:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.14%chance

9159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

212

47

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