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Top stories

Brazil and Canada Resume Mercosur Trade Talks Ahead of Maninder Sidhu Visit; U.S. 50% Tariff and Bolsonaro Lobbying Strain Brazil-U.S. Relations

Brazil and Canada Resume Mercosur Trade Talks Ahead of Maninder Sidhu Visit; U.S. 50% Tariff and Bolsonaro Lobbying Strain Brazil-U.S. Relations

Authors

8

10 months ago

Prediction markets for International Trade

Hantavirus Pandemic 2026-2027?

May 7, 1:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6%chance

2127080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8197

4237

U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?

Jun 9, 2:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.68%chance

2910463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108504

104617

OPQA (OpenAI-proof QA) hits 20% before 2027

May 30, 7:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.03%chance

164138

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7045

5144

Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030?

Jul 4, 10:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60%chance

602925

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1337

880

Will legal international trade in recreational cannabis happen before 2034?

Jan 2, 2:13 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

76.83%chance

202334

OptionVotes

NO

YES

731

97

Will any currency overtake the US dollar in international trade by 2050?

Apr 21, 5:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.24%chance

481579

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1411

568

Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.4% in 2026?

May 1, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.5%chance

91406

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1618

365

Will AI customer phone lines be normal by 2027?

Jun 14, 8:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.13%chance

371404

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1130

931

Will North and South Korea be reunified any time through 2043

Sep 15, 11:31 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

30.44%chance

15681

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1014

940

Will Donald Trump get more judges appointed in his second term than his first?

Nov 7, 2:42 AMJan 16, 7:59 AM

59.42%chance

5410

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1210

826

Will the BRICS nations officially launch a common digital settlement currency for international trade by the end of 2026

Feb 2, 11:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19%chance

8151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

48

Will the USITC issue a final affirmative injury determination on unwrought palladium from Russia by Sep 30, 2026?

Feb 16, 5:48 PMSep 29, 5:48 PM

73.48%chance

3128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

950

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