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Top stories

US Foreign Policy

Trump Says US Nears ‘Very Fair’ Trade Deal With China

Authors

11

3 days ago

Prediction markets for International Trade

Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?

Jan 13, 7:06 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

15.68%chance

7147255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22945

4656

Will either the courts or congress significantly limit trumps ability to impose or negotiate tariffs by the end of 2025

Apr 7, 10:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.13%chance

15536568

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

866

Will Trump reduce the trade deficit in his first year?

Nov 26, 10:08 PMFeb 6, 4:59 AM

20.67%chance

8121828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1959

510

Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" found unlawful by courts and effectively ceased by EOY 2025?

Apr 6, 7:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.01%chance

365853

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

702

Supreme Court upholds unconstitutionality of broad tariffs?

May 29, 12:35 AMJan 1, 1:23 AM

68.88%chance

384517

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1488

672

Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030?

Jul 4, 10:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60%chance

602925

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1337

880

Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" found unlawful by courts and effectively ceased by EOY 2026?

Apr 21, 7:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.36%chance

132605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1167

857

Will legal international trade in recreational cannabis happen before 2034?

Jan 2, 2:13 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

76.02%chance

192324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

721

100

Will any currency overtake the US dollar in international trade by 2050?

Apr 21, 5:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.24%chance

481579

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1411

568

Will AI customer phone lines be normal by 2027?

Jun 14, 8:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.42%chance

351342

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

928

Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?

Jun 13, 7:28 PMJun 3, 4:41 PM

46.74%chance

14929

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1068

937

Will North and South Korea be reunified any time through 2043

Sep 15, 11:31 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

30.44%chance

15681

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1014

940

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