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Top stories

Brazil and Canada Resume Mercosur Trade Talks Ahead of Maninder Sidhu Visit; U.S. 50% Tariff and Bolsonaro Lobbying Strain Brazil-U.S. Relations

Brazil and Canada Resume Mercosur Trade Talks Ahead of Maninder Sidhu Visit; U.S. 50% Tariff and Bolsonaro Lobbying Strain Brazil-U.S. Relations

Authors

8

6 months ago

Prediction markets for International Trade

Will Trump reduce the trade deficit in his first year?

Nov 26, 10:08 PMFeb 6, 4:59 AM

12.51%chance

9426357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2644

378

Supreme Court upholds unconstitutionality of broad tariffs?

May 29, 12:35 AMJan 1, 1:23 AM

75.22%chance

9725458

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1744

575

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026

Jan 13, 11:54 PMJun 29, 11:59 PM

62.66%chance

466733

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1296

772

Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" found unlawful by courts and effectively ceased by EOY 2026?

Apr 21, 7:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.93%chance

235710

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

906

Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030?

Jul 4, 10:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60%chance

602925

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1337

880

Will legal international trade in recreational cannabis happen before 2034?

Jan 2, 2:13 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

76.02%chance

192324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

721

100

Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?

Jun 13, 7:28 PMJun 3, 4:41 PM

27.72%chance

151611

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1615

619

Will any currency overtake the US dollar in international trade by 2050?

Apr 21, 5:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.24%chance

481579

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1411

568

Will AI customer phone lines be normal by 2027?

Jun 14, 8:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.13%chance

371404

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1130

931

Will North and South Korea be reunified any time through 2043

Sep 15, 11:31 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

30.44%chance

15681

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1014

940

Will Donald Trump get more judges appointed in his second term than his first?

Nov 7, 2:42 AMJan 16, 7:59 AM

59.42%chance

5410

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1210

826

Will the BRICS nations officially launch a common digital settlement currency for international trade by the end of 2026

Feb 2, 11:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17%chance

6137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

221

45

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