OptionProbability
Significant protests are reported in February and March
The US launches airstrikes
Israel and Iran go to war again
Iran strikes Israel with missiles
The rial loses 1/3 the value it had on January 1, 2026 (unofficially / on the black market)
Iran strikes US bases
The US launches airstrikes on three different days
Iran strikes US bases and kills at least one American
Ayatollah Khamenei is removed from power
The Strait of Hormuz is mined or otherwise closed
US ground troops enter Iran
75
61
52
51
50
48
25
23
11
10
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1880
532
1194
934
The AI bubble will NOT pop.
China will dominate the global economy.
The trade war will broaden.
More and more governments will hit a debt limit.
China will blockade Taiwan.
80
72
66
44
3
