OptionProbability
Israel and Iran go to war again
Iran strikes Israel with missiles
Iran strikes US bases
Iran strikes US bases and kills at least one American
The US launches airstrikes on three different days
Ayatollah Khamenei is removed from power
The Strait of Hormuz is mined or otherwise closed
The US launches airstrikes
Oil futures exceed 80.00 according to https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil
The US launches airstrikes on March 7 (UTC)
The Strait of Hormuz is mined
Any state bordering the Persian Gulf launches an attack on Iran
Oil futures exceed 100.00 according to https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil
Significant protests are reported in February and March
The rial loses 1/3 the value it had on January 1, 2026 (unofficially / on the black market)
US ground troops enter Iran
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is killed
There is a full week without airstrikes or other notable combat in March
100
51
21
15
12
2
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2085
480
Regular opposition broadcasts hacking Iran TV 3 more times. Like the State TV/IRIB satellite hack.
US/Israeli announce Iran navy annihilated. All surface ships bigger than 10 tons. Small subs also not counted
A brigade or base commander in any city switches sides
One or more Town(s), city(s), declare as free of iran regime control for over 2 days
Interim council fractures, or all current dead or one member defects publicly
High Profile flips - 2+ named officers go on video via Starlink calling on units to stand down or defect.
70
59
56
53
48
32
1194
934
The AI bubble will NOT pop.
China will dominate the global economy.
The trade war will broaden.
More and more governments will hit a debt limit.
China will blockade Taiwan.
80
72
66
44
3
2036
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2026
2027
2028
20
8
7