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Prediction markets for Internet Computer

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

58.03%chance

798738

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1132

746

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

Jul 4, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.44%chance

555211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1461

556

Will computers and internet still be a widespread and accessible technology in 2038?

Nov 22, 8:46 PMJan 29, 10:59 PM

96.57%chance

324145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2068

859

AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:09 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

77.81%chance

212603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1873

534

Will I be able to open TikTok.com from a computer located in the US on January 1st, 2026?

Mar 13, 7:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

92.39%chance

202162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3032

630

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2030

Jul 4, 3:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

73.79%chance

321826

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1595

604

Will there be a new revolutionary technology by 2030?

Aug 18, 3:00 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

83.69%chance

481456

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1194

934

Will we see an increase in online/computer addiction by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:18 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

88%chance

531090

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1407

923

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Will the marketcap of Internet Computer Protocol (ICP) exceed that of XRP by EOY 2025?

Mar 24, 7:37 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.8%chance

3500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

639

38

Will Russia ban personal computers and public internet access by 2040?

Jul 25, 9:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.53%chance

9345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

365

151

When will a language model be fine-tuned via self-play or expert iteration and achieve significant performance increase?

Dec 17, 4:47 PMJan 1, 4:47 PM

12.92%chance

14272

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1001

976

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