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Prediction markets for Internet Computer

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

53%chance

818907

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

830

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

Jul 4, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.44%chance

555211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1461

556

Will computers and internet still be a widespread and accessible technology in 2038?

Nov 22, 8:46 PMJan 29, 10:59 PM

96.57%chance

324145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2068

859

AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:09 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

81.68%chance

242886

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2112

474

Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?

Jul 31, 1:09 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

41.94%chance

172227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1176

850

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2030

Jul 4, 3:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

73.79%chance

321826

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1595

604

Will there be a new revolutionary technology by 2030?

Aug 18, 3:00 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

83.69%chance

481456

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1194

934

Will we see an increase in online/computer addiction by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:18 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

89.48%chance

571319

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1591

900

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

When will Basic Post Scarcity Economy be achieved by a nation state?

Jun 12, 2:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17412

OptionProbability

2070

2080

2060

Other

AFTER widespread Bitcoin adoption

2050

Lmao

2090

2040

2100

2110

2120

2130

2140

2150

2160

2170

2180

2190

2200

15

14

14

12

9

8

7

7

7

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Russia ban personal computers and public internet access by 2040?

Jul 25, 9:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.53%chance

9345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

365

151

How much AI extinction risk would you accept?

Aug 30, 4:13 PMDec 7, 4:59 AM

13.95%chance

9181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

140

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