Into The Block News

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)

[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)

[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)

[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)

[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)

[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)

[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)

[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)

[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)

[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)

[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)

[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)

[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)

[Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)

[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)

[Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)

[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)

[Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)

[Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)

[Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)

[Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)

[Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)

[Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)

[Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)

[Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)

[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)

[Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)

[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)

[Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)

[Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)

[Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)

[Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)

[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)

[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)

[Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)

[Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)

Any American receives it by end 2025

Any American receives it by end 2026

Limit set at or below 99th percentile wealth or income

≥$200

Limit set at or below 90th percentile wealth or income

A physical check (at least optionally)

Multiple disparate "tariff dividends" (different sources or destinations)

Only given out to military

All for same amount

≥$2000

Blocked by a federal judge

Limit set at or below 70th percentile wealth or income

Significant number sent to non-citizens and/or non-existent people

Passed by Congress

$ value explicitly tied to performance of tariffs

~50% or more of Americans receive it by end 2026

Some checks bounce

Teams are a rematch of a previous super bowl

Tom Brady is at the game

Team will be scoreless for a quarter

Winning team has more total yards

First play from scrimmage is a rush

Holding call in 4th quarter

Super Bowl MVP is a quarterback

Player goes into the blue tent

Failed 4th down attempt

Any player scores 7+ points individually

Player spikes ball during a touchdown celebration

Head coach throws a challenge flag

Super Bowl is won by a bird team

Last play is 'victory formation'

Both teams make 33 yard or longer field goal

Ruling on the field gets overturned by review

Player crying during national anthem

National anthem is over 2 minutes

Broadcast uses video from pylon camera

Winning team has more passing yards

Player with prime jersey number scores a touchdown

Player gets carted off the field

Team that scores last wins the game

Score is tied again after 0-0

First turnover is an interception

Any player scores 2+ touchdowns

A player catches the ball with one hand

An administrative timeout is taken

First score is a touchdown

Both teams complete their first pass attempt

All quarters have points scored (no 0-0 quarters)

WM Phoenix Open winning score under par is higher than Super Bowl kicking points

Injury timeout is taken

50+ yard field goal is made

Team scores in last 30 seconds of either half

2 point conversion attempted

Super Bowl MVP threw an interception or fumbled during the game

Coin toss is 'heads'

Coin toss is 'tails'

Trick play results in positive yardage

Final combined total of QB pass completions is odd

Either quarterback has 2+ interceptions

Successful 2-point conversion

Jersey number of last touchdown scorer is even

Announcer says "goat"

Play with one or more attempted laterals occurs

Kick is missed

Onside kick attempt

Team scores in all 4 quarters (same team)

Player knocks non-player over on the sideline

Both teams have a 4th quarter lead

First score is a field goal

Head coach or player throws something on sideline in frustration

Illegal use of hands to the face penalty given

Any player has a 60+ yard reception

Player flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct

Quarterback runs in for a touchdown

Team scores in the last 30 seconds of the game

Both teams score in 1st quarter

[1st half total score] > [2nd half total score]

[Total score] > [Longest field goal made]

Announcer says "tush push"

Player retires immediately after game

Winning margin is 10+ points

No penalty called in last 5 minutes of the game

Team leading at halftime loses

Team has 5+ sacks

First drive of game is a '3 and out'

Winning team has more turnovers

Announcer says "stud"

50+ yard return

Unauthorized person gets on the field of play

Player shown eating a snack on the sideline

Kicker is iced

No penalties in the 4th quarter

Backup QB gets put in the game

Rules analyst disagrees with a decision a ref made

Penalty for 'roughing the passer' is given

Any current or former US president is directly referenced by announcer

Opening kickoff result is a touchback

Taylor Swift is at the game

Final score is the same as the final score of a previous Super Bowl

Gatorade shower color is yellow/green

A player's jersey gets torn

Unauthorized person touches midfield logo

First touchdown celebration includes acrobatics

Tush Push touchdown is made

Score is tied at half-time

Player gets ejected from the game

Current or former US President in attendance

Any player successfully hurdles a defender

Streaker (fully or partially nude on field)

Chains used to measure first down 1+ times

Altercation occurs between a player and a coach

Live animal enters the field of play

Special teams touchdown

Pick 6 occurs

Kick is successfully blocked

Points scored in the first 90 seconds

A player listed over 260 lbs scores a touchdown

No rushing touchdowns scored

There is a doink

Team wins by exactly one point

[LX total score] > [LIX total score]

Puppy Bowl 2026 MVP shares a first or last name with the SB MVP

At least one team has 0 points at halftime

Successful 'hail mary' pass is made

A safety is scored

QB catches a pass from any player

Final score is scorigami

Game goes to OT

Any QB throws for 400 or more yards in the game

Any player to score an octopus

Stadium blackout occurs

Super Bowl MVP not from winning team

Announcer says “hawk-eye”

Team is a first time super bowl winner

Wild Card team makes the Super Bowl

Magic: The Gathering

Cult of the Lamb

Death's Door

Shift Happens

Baba is You

Understand

The Witness

Hollow Knight

It Takes Two

Unravel Two

Portal 2

Braid

Portal

Superliminal

The Talos Principle

The Talos Principle 2

Antichamber

Perspective

Portal Reloaded

Portal Stories: Mel

Thinking with Time Machine

Cell Machine

Bokura

Hades

Hades 2

Keep Talking and Nobody Explodes

Superhot

Slay the Princess

Mind over Magnet

Escape Academy

Pico Park 2

Viewfinder

Silksong

Baba Is You XTREME

blue prince

The Room

Pico Park

Wargroove

Patrick's Parabox

Q.U.B.E. 2

Q.U.B.E.

The Stanley Parable

Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A

Stardew Valley

Splendor (tabletop game)

We Were Here Too

Advance Wars

Mini Motorways

Human: Fall Flat

Outer Wilds

Don't Starve

Doki Doki Literature Club!

We Were Here

Castle Crashers

Spiritfarer

scarlet hollow

Terraria

Chants of Sennaar

Patch Quest

Minecraft

999

Detroit: Become Human

Wild Woods

Manifold Garden

We Were Here Forever

Goragoa

Subnauticta

We Were Here Expeditions: The FriendShip

Tokimeki Memorial

Baldur's Gate 3

Beyond: Two Souls

Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc

What Remains of Edith Finch

Clandestine

Nobody Saves the World

Lovers in Dangerous Spacetime

Glider (1988)

Split Fiction

Rayman Legends

LittleBigPlanet 3

Lara Croft and the Guardian of Light

Bean and nothingness

Space Station 13

Nomifactory

Monifactory

Rebirth of the Night

Induction

Akane

Zero Time Dilemma

Morrowind

going under: internships are heck

Animal Well

English Country Tune

English Country Tune

Satisfactory

Expedition 33

Quantum Conundrum

Stoneshard

Final Fantasy Tactics (original)

Final Fantasy Tactics Advanced

Final Fantasy Tactics Advanced 2

Octopath Travel

Project Triangle Strategy

Sokosoko

Physics-Breaking Boxes

Inbox Unbox

Linelith

Boxing Up Bamboo

Frog Wizard Gem Quest

The Vacuum Cleaner in the Room

Clockwork Cat

salt and sactuary

From Muddled to Clean

Path to Nowhere

Arknights

Defender's Quest: Valley of the Forgotten

Lorelei and the Laser Eyes

A Monster's Expedition

Lingo

Solas 128

Gentoo Rescue

Ugly

Toki Tori 2+

Veggie Quest: The Puzzle Game

Isles of Sea and Sky

Chroma Zero

Paquerette

Riven

Baba Files Taxes

Baba Is Quiz

A Solitaire Mystery

IT'S A BLOCK-PUSHING GAME

Leaf's Odyssey

Submachine

LOK Digital

Leap Year

Recursed

Fever Meme

Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward

Moonlighter

Myst

We Were Here Together

Hyperrogue

Void Stranger

PEAK

Sackboy: A Big Adventure

Arc Raiders

Unstable Unicorns 🦄

Mario Party

Magicka

Exploding kittens

Yume Nikki

The House of DaVinci

Tunic

Moving Out

Moving Out

Timberborn

Trine 2

A Couple Of Cubes

Root (tabletop or digital version)

Children of Morta

Rainworld

Deadly Rooms of Death

Fez

CrossCode

Cocoon

Islands of Insight

Monopoly

USSR Simulator (https://flowlab.io/game/play/1151923) (trash but still)

SteamWorld Dig

Snakebird

Chess

Slay the Spire

Among Us

Stephen's Sausage Roll

Amazing Chicken Adventures

Wingspan

Can of Wormholes

Disco Elysium

Overcooked

Return of the Obra Dinn

Inscryption

Slice and Dice

Teardown

Proposal: representative security council! Add at least one member with <20k net worth

Proposal: Donate it all to MSF / Doctors without Borders

ACCEPTED: Don't use the bomb before it reaches 10K (minimum)

Donate to Mriya https://manifold.markets/ArtemAvramenko/will-the-mriya-fund-raise-2-million?r=TG9yZWxhaQ

ACCEPTED: Donate 50% to GiveWell, 50% to Internet Archive

Donate 34% to give well, 33 % to internet archive, 33% to mriya

Proposal: add @Stralor to the security council

Proposal: don't use the bomb until it reaches 20k mana kilotons

Proposal: Loan Tumbles 1000 mana to add to the bounty, then add Tumbles to the security council

Proposal: Add @SanghyeonSeo to the security council

Proposal: add @Joshua as a member of the security council

Proposal: Bet it on YES for Michelle Obama winning the 2024 presidential election

Proposal: add @odoacre to the security council

Proposal: Bet YES on the first Yes or No market posted after 1 AM EST on March 9th

Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on whalebait markets

Proposal: EMERGENCY BACKUP BOMB - donate it all to internet archive in case of pivot backfire

Proposal: Loan it all to @retr0id for 1 month, at 10% monthly interest

Proposal: Donate it all to Givewell (PASSED AWAITING APPROVAL)

Proposal: Bet it all on coinflip markets (51% YES) and see how many times it ~doubles

Proposal: the security council must have at least 3 members to arm the bomb

Drop a 1 kiloton "shot across the bow" spirit bomb directly on the new manifold government https://manifold.markets/bens/will-i-receive-the-mandate-of-the-p

Proposal: Boost Bomb, spend the mana boosting question(s) to be determined

Proposal: Whale Bomb: Use the bomb on a whalebait market

Proposal: a member of the security counsel can be voted off with a supermajority of its members >66%

Proposal: True Love Bomb, spread the mana by making large bets on markets with <3 traders or markets created by new users

Proposal: Create a ticking mechanism with a mana goal and a deadline, such that either: 1) the deadline is reached and the bomb is detonated, or 2) the mana goal is reached and the deadline is extended

Proposal: Give 10% to @geuber_

Proposal: add @AmmonLam to the security council

Proposal: Use it to develop a rival “Coolfold Partner Program,” award it as bounties to promising new/cool market creators

Proposal: Add @Tumbles to the security council

Proposal: Donate it all to Poker Night on Manifund

Proposal: Use the mana to buy tickets for Manifest for spirit bomb contributors who are able to make it

Proposal: Bet it on LK-99 superconductor market (YES or NO to be decided).

add @AbhinavSrinivas to the security council

Proposal: add @KongoLandwalker to the security counsil

Proposal: Cursed Boost Bomb, use it to boost the most cursed/annoying market to impact the feed of every user for days to come

Proposal: Subsidy Bomb, put the mana into one specific market, target to be determined

ACCEPTED: don't use the bomb before it reaches 5K (minimum)

ACCEPTED: require a contribution of at least 1000M for any future member to be considered for the security council

DUPLICATE - NA

ACCEPTED: security council candidates must have 20 YES positions for them to be considered

ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 100% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions.

ACCEPTED: Proposals need at least 10 more Yes positions than NO positions to be considered (YES positions minus NO positions must be 10 or more)

ACCEPTED: All proposals must have at least 80% to be considered

ACCEPTED: proposals can be cancelled if there are 10 more NO positions than YES positions (they can be resubmitted though)

ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 95% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions. (amending previous 100%)

ACCEPTED: change approval for resolutions to 95%, and a difference of 20 Y to N for sec council member proposals

Proposal: Poker bomb - use it to fund a massive prize pool for a coolfold poker event

Proposal: Max out a specific Manifund project (TBD)

Proposal: add @stefanie as a member of the security council

Proposal: Distribute among active players in Bronze

Proposal: Poll bomb - give chris enough mana to finish hogwarts/trump polls :)

Proposal: Stochastic Bomb: use it to make as many markets about Jose Luis Ricon and StochasticParrot as possible

Proposal: use the bomb to disrupt manifold politics conditional markets.

Proposal: Use the bomb to create a multiple choice market with 100 answers, and pour the rest into boosting it

Proposal: repeal the ban on using the bomb before it reaches 5K mana

Proposal: add a random number generator to the security council

Proposal: Disarm the bomb until April 2nd 2024

Proposal: Immolation Bomb to protest the pivot

Proposal: Disarmament & Peace, permanently deactivate the bomb

Proposal: Love Bomb, spread the mana from the bomb as subsidy among the top 100 markets on browse

Proposal: block another user's limit order on a specific market, target TBD (ie: set up a new large Limit Order that is slightly below/above theirs)

Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on any small creators or their markets, without their permission (<1000 traders)

Proposal: Found a Republican PAC to make election predictions on Manifold more accurate

Proposal: Distribute it to all the users that contributed to it evenly

Proposal: the greed ending, split the bomb evenly among members of the security council

First episode drops before 2028

A Faraday cage is mentioned or shown as a way to block hivemind communication

An assimilated disconnect from the hivemind for a minute or more (not including seizures)

At least two more people join the hivemind

An assimilated disconnect from the hivemind for a day or more

Carol causes a seizure

The dog or the goat reappears

Abdul (the muezzin) is shown leading a call to prayer

Any non-assimilated dies

AI will be so embedded in viewers' lives that the "pre-joining" scenes will feel dated

Koumba’s sperm is used to assimilate him (like Carol’s eggs)

Explicit mention of Los Alamos, Manhattan Project or Oppenheimer

Bryan Cranston appears in any episode

We see Rhea Seehorn‘s butt

Carol explicitly threatens the hivemind with atom bomb

Zosia dies

A character from the BB/BCS universe appears

Carol, Zosia, Koumba, Manousos, Helen or Laxmi is recasted

Manousos’ infection gets worse

Hamas

Israel

PLO

International Peacekeeping Force (Western at least one other block)

Arab-Only Peacekeeping Force

United States of America

Other

Other

They settle and it's considered a win for Chloe

Block wins

Chloe Happe wins

They settle and it's not considered a win for either

Court Rules Tariffs under IEEPA are unconstitutional (strikes down), AND allows at least SOME repayments for companies who have paid tariffs under the IEEPA justification

Court rules that tariffs are constitutional (because Congress didn’t exercise objection right to state of emergency…or other reason).

Court Rules Tariffs under IEEPA are unconstitutional (strikes down), but blocks repayments for companies who have paid tariffs under the IEEPA justification.

Court somehow fudges, or refuses to finalise clear opinion

#1,000,000 block

Other

A portion of Fediverse nodes block Threads, either a portion of a particular type of platform such as Mastodon, or certain types of platforms become open to Threads, just on their own, with little intervention from Threads, it just happens

Meta starts funding Fediverse nodes and maintainers via grants, pays to maintain servers in exchange for not blocking Threads/Meta.

Complete, all-out pitch battle in which large portion of Fediverse protocols and nodes absolutely unify against blocking Threads and anything that smells of Meta.

Threads users complain about unsavory Fediverse content leaking in. Non-Threads content is ultimately blocked for most practical purposes, and the integration feature atrophies.

There’s more of a virtue signaling about blocking Threads across the Fediverse, but little actual action. The actual cost of Fediverse users actually preventing Threads from engaging in nodes just far outweighs the perceived threat.

Meta does like spoofing users which are actually just straight up Meta bots that crawl nodes and hoovering up user data. They use their high end programming resources to just crush any resistance through subterfuge.

Meta Entryism, they pay users, influencers, prominent individuals, either above board or below or both, to constantly post propaganda bout how Meta is a changed man and anyone who is against them is against the Fediverse and anything it sta