Inven News

Has Taj Quantum invented a room-temperature, ambient-pressure superconductor?

Jul 30, 9:42 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

2.44%chance

13686082

OptionVotes

YES

6685

1740

Will Vitalik Buterin (co-founder and inventor of Ethereum) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Nov 29, 3:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.24%chance

287553

OptionVotes

YES

1580

927

Will Humans invent immortality by 2100

Jan 11, 11:43 PMJan 18, 11:59 PM

77.66%chance

181832

OptionVotes

YES

1901

271

Greatest Inventor of All-Time

May 14, 6:00 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

211692

OptionProbability

Leonardo DaVinci

Alan Turing

Tuk Tuk (first person to make & use fire)

Ann Tsukamoto (stem cell isolation)

Awa (first upper-paleolithic human to record animal birth cycle months with tally dots on cave paintings aka the first proto-writing, ~42kya)

Louis Pasteur

Nikola Tesla

Oowoo (first Australopithecus to create Lomekwian stone tools, ~3.3Mya)

Fritz Haber

Thomas Edison

Johannes Gutenberg

Marie Curie

Steve Jobs

Charles Babbage

Alfred Nobel

Charles Goodyear

Hedy Lamarr

Ernst Gräfenberg

John S. Pemberton

Will a vacuum lift technology be discovered or invented before 2040?

Jun 28, 12:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.25%chance

281570

OptionVotes

YES

1526

837

By 2030, will an AI be officially designated as the patent holder for an invention?

May 19, 6:49 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

24.14%chance

551295

OptionVotes

YES

999

985

Will anyone die from a weaponized pathogen invented by AI by 2029?

Sep 22, 6:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.27%chance

281155

OptionVotes

YES

1026

826

Will we invent telepathic like communication by the year 2100

Jan 20, 6:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.36%chance

30789

OptionVotes

YES

783

454

Will "Somebody invented a better bookmark" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 9:24 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.43%chance

4334

OptionVotes

YES

1334

954

Will Apple Vision Pro win Time invention of the year within two years of launch?

Jun 6, 3:00 PMJun 7, 3:59 AM

29%chance

9136

OptionVotes

YES

206

117

First year in which Merriam Webster adds a new English word which was known to have been invented by an AI

Oct 28, 4:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

456

OptionProbability

2033 or later or never

2030

2029

2031

2032

2026

2027

2028

2025

Before 2043, will a leading-edge process node feature a new transistor design fewer than 10 years after its invention?

Jun 5, 10:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.97%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

106

Inven News

Prediction markets for Inven

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Has Taj Quantum invented a room-temperature, ambient-pressure superconductor?

Will Vitalik Buterin (co-founder and inventor of Ethereum) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Will Humans invent immortality by 2100

Greatest Inventor of All-Time

Will a vacuum lift technology be discovered or invented before 2040?

By 2030, will an AI be officially designated as the patent holder for an invention?

Will anyone die from a weaponized pathogen invented by AI by 2029?

Will we invent telepathic like communication by the year 2100

Will "Somebody invented a better bookmark" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will Apple Vision Pro win Time invention of the year within two years of launch?

First year in which Merriam Webster adds a new English word which was known to have been invented by an AI

Before 2043, will a leading-edge process node feature a new transistor design fewer than 10 years after its invention?

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