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Prediction markets for Inven

Has Taj Quantum invented a room-temperature, ambient-pressure superconductor?

Jul 30, 9:42 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

2.47%chance

13786084

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6605

1742

Will Vitalik Buterin (co-founder and inventor of Ethereum) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Nov 29, 3:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.61%chance

307573

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

947

Will Humans invent immortality by 2100

Jan 11, 11:43 PMJan 18, 11:59 PM

43.42%chance

212542

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1152

744

Will a vacuum lift technology be discovered or invented before 2040?

Jun 28, 12:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.25%chance

281570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1526

837

By 2030, will an AI be officially designated as the patent holder for an invention?

May 19, 6:49 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

24.14%chance

551295

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

985

Will anyone die from a weaponized pathogen invented by AI by 2029?

Sep 22, 6:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.93%chance

291255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

926

Will we invent telepathic like communication by the year 2100

Jan 20, 6:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.01%chance

30799

OptionVotes

NO

YES

772

457

Will Robin Hanson (professor, blogger, and inventor of prediction markets) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 5, 6:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.51%chance

10398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

432

148

Will "Somebody invented a better bookmark" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 9:24 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.15%chance

5344

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1251

964

Will "Ada Palmer: Inventing the Renaissance" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 27, 8:31 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

26.41%chance

2117

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1117

507

First year in which Merriam Webster adds a new English word which was known to have been invented by an AI

Oct 28, 4:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

578

OptionProbability

2033 or later or never

2030

2029

2026

2031

2032

2027

2028

2025

22

16

14

13

10

10

5

5

3

When will a neuroscientist say that artificial consciousness has been invented?

Feb 10, 8:21 PMFeb 11, 7:59 AM

378

OptionProbability

Before 2100

Before 2075

Before 2050

Before 2035

Before 2040

Before 2030

80

72

62

50

50

34

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