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Prediction markets for Inventive AI

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

7.67%chance

836529327

OptionVotes

YES

NO

69114

9469

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Dec 20, 12:57 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

6.08%chance

105109530

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3227

670

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.67%chance

8149972

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28379

3002

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Dec 24, 12:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

27.42%chance

7521770

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1188

900

Will we get ASI before 2031?

Dec 22, 2:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

17%chance

8021031

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1506

843

Will we get ASI before 2033?

Dec 30, 1:14 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

30%chance

648021

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

920

Will we get ASI before 2034?

Jan 18, 9:01 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

36.58%chance

647343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

943

By 2030, will an AI be officially designated as the patent holder for an invention?

May 19, 6:49 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

24.14%chance

551295

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

985

Will anyone die from a weaponized pathogen invented by AI by 2029?

Sep 22, 6:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.93%chance

291255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

926

First year in which Merriam Webster adds a new English word which was known to have been invented by an AI

Oct 28, 4:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

578

OptionProbability

2033 or later or never

2030

2029

2026

2031

2032

2027

2028

2025

22

16

14

13

10

10

5

5

3

Exit valuation of Inventive AI (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:36 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

130

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

59

14

14

14

do ai tools make you overall >100% more productive today than you would have been had gpt not been invented?

Sep 16, 7:36 PM

130

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