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Prediction markets for Inventive AI

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.91%chance

811504802

OptionVotes

YES

NO

58014

10529

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Dec 20, 12:57 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

8.67%chance

8892568

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2412

734

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.08%chance

8138437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27819

3071

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Dec 24, 12:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

19.79%chance

6420156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1578

781

Will we get ASI before 2031?

Dec 22, 2:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

13.87%chance

7118862

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1797

790

Will we get ASI before 2033?

Dec 30, 1:14 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

25.45%chance

617404

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1333

850

Will we get ASI before 2034?

Jan 18, 9:01 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

28.78%chance

556603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1281

822

Will Humans invent immortality by 2100

Jan 11, 11:43 PMJan 18, 11:59 PM

53.26%chance

192252

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1313

571

By 2030, will an AI be officially designated as the patent holder for an invention?

May 19, 6:49 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

24.14%chance

551295

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

985

Will anyone die from a weaponized pathogen invented by AI by 2029?

Sep 22, 6:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.27%chance

281155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

826

First year in which Merriam Webster adds a new English word which was known to have been invented by an AI

Oct 28, 4:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

578

OptionProbability

2033 or later or never

2030

2029

2026

2031

2032

2027

2028

2025

22

16

14

13

10

10

5

5

3

Exit valuation of Inventive AI (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:36 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

130

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

59

14

14

14

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