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Prediction markets for Investment Management

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.09%chance

7713190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5918

1919

Will I retire this year? And how will that affect my well-being?

Feb 8, 9:44 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

264008

OptionProbability

Retire, well-being [0.6, 0.7)

Retire, well-being [0.7, 0.8)

Retire, well-being [0.5, 0.6)

Does not retire, well-being [0.5, 0.6)

Does not retire, well-being [0.6, 0.7)

Retire, well-being [0.8, 1)

Does not retire, well-being [0.4, 0.5)

Does not retire, well-being [0.7, 0.8)

Retire, well-being [0.4, 0.5)

Retire, well-being [0, 0.4)

Does not retire, well-being [0, 0.4)

Does not retire, well-being [0.8, 1)

29

17

16

8

8

5

4

4

3

2

2

2

Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029?

Aug 1, 2:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.42%chance

253670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1587

630

Will James Fishback win the Florida Republican Primary?

Mar 23, 12:27 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

1%chance

193364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Will Roy Lee become a billionaire before 2029?

Jun 25, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.63%chance

132448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1979

1145

Significant legal restrictions on AI in the USA by June 2027

Jan 24, 10:25 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

81.01%chance

29973

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1275

910

Will Fred Ehrsam (crypto investor, co-founder at Coinbase exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 18, 12:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.45%chance

10447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1267

939

AUM of all prediction market ETFs by end of August 2026

Apr 29, 1:07 AMApr 29, 3:59 AM

4400

OptionProbability

500M - 999.9M

100M - 499.9M

0 - 99.9M

1B - 4.99B

5B - 10B

Above 10B

38

27

17

6

6

6

Will SpaceX reach a valuation of $5 Trillion by 2030?

Feb 2, 6:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.68%chance

16293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

223

180

The Ministry for the Future Predictions: will there be a cryptocurrency tied to CO2 capture and storage by 2040?

Feb 8, 12:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.73%chance

11204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

980

Will any tokenized basket or index investment product exceed $1 billion in AUM by the end of 2027?

May 11, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.51%chance

3170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1072

933

Will Democrats (2028 Election) pivot to pro-growth Abundance Policies (Ezra Klein + Derek Thompson) 🇺🇸🦾🤑🦅🏗️🏛️

Mar 6, 3:41 AMNov 30, 12:59 PM

47.29%chance

9169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

95

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