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Prediction markets for Investment Management

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.94%chance

566949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3447

2467

Will I retire this year? And how will that affect my well-being?

Feb 8, 9:44 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

263965

OptionProbability

Retire, well-being [0.6, 0.7)

Retire, well-being [0.7, 0.8)

Retire, well-being [0.5, 0.6)

Does not retire, well-being [0.5, 0.6)

Does not retire, well-being [0.6, 0.7)

Retire, well-being [0.8, 1)

Does not retire, well-being [0.4, 0.5)

Does not retire, well-being [0.7, 0.8)

Retire, well-being [0.4, 0.5)

Retire, well-being [0, 0.4)

Does not retire, well-being [0, 0.4)

Does not retire, well-being [0.8, 1)

27

18

17

8

8

5

4

4

3

2

2

2

Will Roy Lee become a billionaire before 2029?

Jun 25, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.63%chance

132448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1979

1145

US Treasury announces new capital controls before May 22, 2026

Apr 22, 11:17 PMMay 22, 11:59 PM

23.39%chance

101448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1810

552

Significant legal restrictions on AI in the USA by June 2027

Jan 24, 10:25 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

81.35%chance

26906

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1296

905

When will the ability to allow resolving options in multiple-choice markets to NO be added?

Sep 20, 4:40 PMDec 31, 5:31 PM

11506

OptionProbability

Before 2050

Before 2032

Before 2031

Before 2030

Before January 2029

Before January 2028

Before June 2028

Before June 2027

Before January 2027

Before June 2026

Before January 2026

60

59

58

57

56

55

55

54

53

35

0

Will Fred Ehrsam (crypto investor, co-founder at Coinbase exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 18, 12:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.45%chance

10447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1267

939

Will Malik Samara found or lead a company with a valuation of at least $100 million by December 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 6:31 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

1269

OptionProbability

Yes, $100M+ valuation achieved by December 31, 2026

No, $100M+ valuation not achieved by December 31, 2026

Unresolvable / Ambiguous

Other

42

36

22

1

The Ministry for the Future Predictions: will there be a cryptocurrency tied to CO2 capture and storage by 2040?

Feb 8, 12:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.73%chance

11204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

980

Will SpaceX reach a valuation of $5 Trillion by 2030?

Feb 2, 6:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.18%chance

10192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

Will Democrats (2028 Election) pivot to pro-growth Abundance Policies (Ezra Klein + Derek Thompson) 🇺🇸🦾🤑🦅🏗️🏛️

Mar 6, 3:41 AMNov 30, 12:59 PM

47.29%chance

9169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

95

Will investment banks be impacted significantly due to the ease of creating custom software tools using AI?

Jun 25, 12:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3105

OptionProbability

Yes, between 2026 to end of 2030

Yes, between 2031 to end of 2035

Yes, before end of 2025

Not before end of 2035

40

29

23

8

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