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Prediction markets for Investment Management

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

7210411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4186

2254

Will Roy Lee become a billionaire before 2029?

Jun 25, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.63%chance

132448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1979

1145

Significant legal restrictions on AI in the USA by June 2027

Jan 24, 10:25 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

80.18%chance

28923

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

922

When will the ability to allow resolving options in multiple-choice markets to NO be added?

Sep 20, 4:40 PMDec 31, 5:31 PM

11723

OptionProbability

Before 2050

Before 2032

Before 2031

Before 2030

Before January 2029

Before January 2028

Before June 2028

Before June 2027

Before January 2027

Before June 2026

Before January 2026

60

59

58

57

56

55

55

54

49

1

0

Will Fred Ehrsam (crypto investor, co-founder at Coinbase exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 18, 12:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.45%chance

10447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1267

939

AUM of all prediction market ETFs by end of August 2026

Apr 29, 1:07 AMApr 29, 3:59 AM

4400

OptionProbability

500M - 999.9M

100M - 499.9M

0 - 99.9M

1B - 4.99B

5B - 10B

Above 10B

38

27

17

6

6

6

Will SpaceX reach a valuation of $5 Trillion by 2030?

Feb 2, 6:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.26%chance

16282

OptionVotes

YES

NO

234

172

Will Malik Samara found or lead a company with a valuation of at least $100 million by December 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 6:31 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

1269

OptionProbability

Yes, $100M+ valuation achieved by December 31, 2026

No, $100M+ valuation not achieved by December 31, 2026

Unresolvable / Ambiguous

Other

42

36

22

1

The Ministry for the Future Predictions: will there be a cryptocurrency tied to CO2 capture and storage by 2040?

Feb 8, 12:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.73%chance

11204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

980

Will any tokenized basket or index investment product exceed $1 billion in AUM by the end of 2027?

May 11, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.51%chance

3170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1072

933

Will Democrats (2028 Election) pivot to pro-growth Abundance Policies (Ezra Klein + Derek Thompson) 🇺🇸🦾🤑🦅🏗️🏛️

Mar 6, 3:41 AMNov 30, 12:59 PM

47.29%chance

9169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

95

Will investment banks be impacted significantly due to the ease of creating custom software tools using AI?

Jun 25, 12:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3105

OptionProbability

Yes, between 2026 to end of 2030

Yes, between 2031 to end of 2035

Yes, before end of 2025

Not before end of 2035

40

29

23

8

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