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Prediction markets for Investment Management

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.15%chance

8314198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6271

1868

Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029?

Aug 1, 2:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.53%chance

264180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2097

477

Will I retire this year? And how will that affect my well-being?

Feb 8, 9:44 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

264008

OptionProbability

Retire, well-being [0.6, 0.7)

Retire, well-being [0.7, 0.8)

Retire, well-being [0.5, 0.6)

Does not retire, well-being [0.5, 0.6)

Does not retire, well-being [0.6, 0.7)

Retire, well-being [0.8, 1)

Does not retire, well-being [0.4, 0.5)

Does not retire, well-being [0.7, 0.8)

Retire, well-being [0.4, 0.5)

Retire, well-being [0, 0.4)

Does not retire, well-being [0, 0.4)

Does not retire, well-being [0.8, 1)

29

17

16

8

8

5

4

4

3

2

2

2

Will Roy Lee become a billionaire before 2029?

Jun 25, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.8%chance

162780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2099

1104

Significant legal restrictions on AI in the USA by June 2027

Jan 24, 10:25 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

81.17%chance

30983

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1285

907

Will Fred Ehrsam (crypto investor, co-founder at Coinbase exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 18, 12:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.08%chance

11497

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1317

933

Will SpaceX reach a valuation of $5 Trillion by 2030?

Feb 2, 6:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56%chance

17343

OptionVotes

NO

YES

230

173

Will Malik Samara found or lead a company with a valuation of at least $100 million by December 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 6:31 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

1269

OptionProbability

Yes, $100M+ valuation achieved by December 31, 2026

No, $100M+ valuation not achieved by December 31, 2026

Unresolvable / Ambiguous

Other

42

36

22

1

The Ministry for the Future Predictions: will there be a cryptocurrency tied to CO2 capture and storage by 2040?

Feb 8, 12:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.73%chance

11204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

980

Will any tokenized basket or index investment product exceed $1 billion in AUM by the end of 2027?

May 11, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.51%chance

3170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1072

933

Will Democrats (2028 Election) pivot to pro-growth Abundance Policies (Ezra Klein + Derek Thompson) 🇺🇸🦾🤑🦅🏗️🏛️

Mar 6, 3:41 AMNov 30, 12:59 PM

47.29%chance

9169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

95

When will I create a PR to allow resolving options in multiple-choice markets to NO?

Sep 16, 5:22 PMJan 2, 6:06 PM

493

OptionProbability

Before 2050

Before 2032

Before 2031

Before 2030

Before January 2027

Before June 2027

Before January 2028

Before June 2028

Before January 2029

Before January 2026

Before June 2026

57

53

52

51

50

50

50

50

50

0

0

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