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Prediction markets for IPCC

In which year will global warming reach 1.5 degrees Celsius?

Oct 14, 2:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

101653

OptionProbability

2031

2025

2032

2030

2029

2028

Not in this century

2026

2037

2027

2033

2034

2035

2036

2038

2039

2040

Later this century

Other

13

11

11

9

7

6

5

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

Will (global average) sea level rise by more than 1.1 meters (as predicted by the IPCC) by 2100 ?

Oct 16, 10:26 PMJan 1, 8:01 AM

9.49%chance

91134

OptionVotes

YES

NO

417

65

Will solar geoengineering techniques be deployed at any significant scale by 2030? [details in description]

Oct 30, 3:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

59.31%chance

20881

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

870

What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 7th Assessment Report?

Mar 6, 2:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6714

OptionProbability

Other

4

4.5

3.5

5

3.9

3.8

49

26

16

6

1

1

1

AI equivalent of IPCC before 2027?

Jan 12, 9:21 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

29%chance

597

OptionVotes

YES

NO

158

112

AI equivalent of IPCC before 2030?

Jan 12, 9:17 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

64.9%chance

690

OptionVotes

NO

YES

176

95

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