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Prediction markets for iPhone

5 years from now, will ChatGPT be seen as an "iPhone moment?"

Mar 27, 5:41 AMMar 28, 4:59 AM

90.45%chance

39353654

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2967

1417

Will Apple launch an iPhone with user-replaceable battery by the end of 2026?

Aug 13, 3:26 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

5.84%chance

16913455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

730

Will the iPhone be sold in the EU with a user-replaceable battery by 2027?

Jun 16, 7:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14%chance

717573

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2018

117

Will Apple release an accessory that converts the iPhone into a VR/AR headset (VisionPro) by end of 2028? (~5 years)

Apr 13, 7:11 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.09%chance

231501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1300

874

Will the iPhone market share drop below 50% in the United States in the next 10 years?

Jan 17, 10:24 AMJan 17, 10:59 PM

54.39%chance

281266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

824

iPhone (iOS) vs. Android

Aug 24, 9:20 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

52.83%chance

91247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

945

Will Apple announce an iPhone model with no external ports for wires or connections before the end of 2027?

May 3, 1:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.61%chance

261132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1472

860

Will Apple skip sequential numbering and not name its next flagship iPhone released in 2026 “iPhone 18”?

Jan 9, 5:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.89%chance

12930

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1407

256

Iphone is no longer apples dominant product line in terms of revenue by the end of this decade?

Sep 6, 10:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

39.93%chance

15702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

838

At the end of 2028, how many times the price of a basic plumbing job will it cost to develop a simple iPhone app?

Feb 16, 1:17 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

27.91%chance

11411

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1149

928

Will the iPhone market share drop below 20% worldwide in the next 10 years?

Jan 17, 10:25 AMJan 17, 10:59 PM

27.37%chance

13382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1092

957

iPhone stock

Aug 24, 9:26 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

55.05%chance

1110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1107

904

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