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Prediction markets for IPO

When will Anthropic IPO?

Jul 29, 5:37 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM

188442022

OptionProbability

2026 Q4

2027 Q1

2027 Q2

2029 or later or not at all

2027 Q3

2028

2025 Q3

2025 Q4

2026 Q1

2026 Q2

2026 Q3

2027 Q4

87

6

2

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?

Sep 5, 3:34 AMNov 30, 6:47 AM

3.75%chance

349438939

OptionVotes

YES

NO

53897

4382

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Jun 5, 2:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

130246646

OptionProbability

SpaceX

Anthropic

OpenAi

Discord

Other

92

8

0

0

0

Will Anthropic have the largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Jul 18, 5:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11789783

OptionProbability

No [Anthropic < SpaceX]

No [Anthropic does not IPO in 2026]

Yes

No [SpaceX < Anthropic < Other company]

74

16

9

1

[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?

Jan 6, 11:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.63%chance

10975946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23112

2751

Will Polymarket IPO before 2028?

Jul 22, 10:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.34%chance

5746853

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12682

7885

Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?

Jan 31, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.05%chance

13446712

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13288

7276

Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than SpaceX after both IPO?

Apr 20, 9:30 PMApr 20, 9:29 PM

36.51%chance

4019736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2027

1887

Will Manifold IPO by 2030?

Aug 4, 2:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.57%chance

3812937

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3721

490

OpenAI completes an IPO in 2027 and has a market cap of $1.5trillion+?

Oct 1, 8:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.77%chance

3512048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

976

When will Anduril Industries IPO?

May 29, 11:56 AMDec 31, 12:55 PM

216583

OptionProbability

Q2 2027

Q3 2027

Q4 2027

2028 or later

Q1 2027

Anduril will not IPO

Q4 2026

Q3 2025

Q4 2025

Q1 2026

Q2 2026

Q3 2026

26

22

12

12

11

8

5

1

1

1

1

1

Will SpaceX market cap be higher 1 year after IPO?

May 16, 3:13 AMMay 16, 3:12 AM

44.89%chance

212173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1314

628

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