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Prediction markets for IPO

When will Anthropic IPO?

Jul 29, 5:37 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM

73170185

OptionProbability

2026 Q4

2026 Q3

2027 Q1

2026 Q2

2027 Q2

2029 or later or not at all

2027 Q3

2028

2026 Q1

2027 Q4

2025 Q4

2025 Q3

22

19

16

9

8

7

5

5

4

4

1

0

Will Polymarket IPO before 2028?

Jul 22, 10:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.91%chance

3038499

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12483

8011

Which of xAI, Anthropic, and OpenAI will IPO first?

Dec 3, 12:54 AMDec 3, 12:54 AM

13327149

OptionProbability

xAI

Anthropic

OpenAI

69

16

15

Will SpaceX IPO before the end of 2026?

May 2, 6:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74.64%chance

5017256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12598

8332

OpenAI IPO before 2027?

Nov 2, 12:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.55%chance

5614533

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1096

913

Will Manifold IPO by 2030?

Aug 4, 2:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10%chance

3712837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3621

500

[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?

Jan 6, 11:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.76%chance

487893

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7320

2094

Will OpenAI IPO by 2030?

Dec 19, 10:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

86.02%chance

534376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2271

176

Will Starlink IPO by the end 2027?

Jan 14, 3:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.39%chance

203819

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1796

235

Will Anthropic IPO before 2030?

Mar 6, 12:24 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

86.44%chance

302831

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2383

214

Will SpaceX IPO before the end of 2027?

May 7, 3:10 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

88.27%chance

182160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5133

4474

Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?

Jan 31, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.92%chance

162001

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11684

8683

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