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Prediction markets for IPO

When will Anthropic IPO?

Jul 29, 5:37 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM

81192818

OptionProbability

2026 Q4

2027 Q1

2027 Q2

2026 Q3

2027 Q3

2028

2029 or later or not at all

2027 Q4

2026 Q2

2025 Q4

2026 Q1

2025 Q3

21

21

14

13

8

7

7

5

3

1

1

0

Will Polymarket IPO before 2028?

Jul 22, 10:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.43%chance

3739731

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10929

9150

Which of xAI, Anthropic, and OpenAI will IPO first?

Dec 3, 12:54 AMDec 3, 12:54 AM

13828763

OptionProbability

xAI

Anthropic

OpenAI

71

17

12

Will SpaceX IPO before the end of 2026?

May 2, 6:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.4%chance

5625334

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14467

7761

Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?

Jan 31, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.69%chance

8616597

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12850

7975

OpenAI IPO before 2027?

Nov 2, 12:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.5%chance

6115485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1095

914

Will Manifold IPO by 2030?

Aug 4, 2:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10%chance

3712837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3621

500

[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?

Jan 6, 11:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.84%chance

528586

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6672

2629

Will Starlink IPO by the end 2027?

Jan 14, 3:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70%chance

224938

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

960

Will OpenAI IPO by 2030?

Dec 19, 10:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

86.02%chance

534376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2271

176

Will Anthropic IPO before 2030?

Mar 6, 12:24 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

86.44%chance

302831

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2383

214

Will SpaceX IPO before the end of 2027?

May 7, 3:10 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

88.35%chance

192230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5129

4504

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