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Prediction markets for IPO

When will Anthropic IPO?

Jul 29, 5:37 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM

95224837

OptionProbability

2026 Q4

2026 Q3

2027 Q1

2027 Q2

2029 or later or not at all

2026 Q2

2027 Q3

2028

2027 Q4

2026 Q1

2025 Q3

2025 Q4

58

16

7

4

4

3

3

3

2

1

0

0

Will Polymarket IPO before 2028?

Jul 22, 10:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.2%chance

4841946

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10243

9763

Will SpaceX IPO before the end of 2026?

May 2, 6:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

87.08%chance

8340187

OptionVotes

NO

YES

21771

6291

Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?

Jan 31, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

10633080

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12752

7602

Which of xAI, Anthropic, and OpenAI will IPO first?

Dec 3, 12:54 AMDec 3, 12:54 AM

14432699

OptionProbability

xAI

Anthropic

OpenAI

70

16

14

OpenAI IPO before 2027?

Nov 2, 12:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23%chance

6618826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1831

547

[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?

Jan 6, 11:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.55%chance

5914447

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5491

4239

Will Manifold IPO by 2030?

Aug 4, 2:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10%chance

3712837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3621

500

Will OpenAI IPO by 2030?

Dec 19, 10:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

79.63%chance

544661

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1961

240

Will Anthropic IPO before 2030?

Mar 6, 12:24 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

86.44%chance

302831

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2383

214

Will SpaceX IPO before the end of 2027?

May 7, 3:10 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

89.3%chance

262771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5079

4905

Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than SpaceX after both IPO?

Apr 20, 9:30 PMApr 20, 9:29 PM

30.87%chance

131830

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2370

1713

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