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Prediction markets for IQ

What's the average IQ of active manifold users? (PERMANENT)

Apr 27, 8:33 PMDec 27, 10:59 PM

54.98%chance

142102144

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1398

1270

Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]

Jan 15, 8:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

50.51%chance

9687078

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1289

367

What is Elon Musk's IQ?

Sep 18, 7:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

61.02%chance

7915392

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1122

904

Will GPT-5 score at least 100 in an IQ test?

Feb 27, 9:20 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

93.16%chance

10011540

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4229

442

What's my IQ?

Jan 29, 7:26 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

61%chance

745743

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1345

1121

Will it be revealed that at least 3 people with Wikipedia articles have done IQ selection on their children before 2028?

Jun 27, 4:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

73.16%chance

544092

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1398

710

What's my IQ? [Ṁ500 subsidy]

Jun 1, 2:20 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

57.45%chance

393870

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1402

1037

Will there be an academic paper written on the total effect of microplastics on human IQ loss by 2026? (in the same way there are papers written on organophosphate pesticides and air pollution on human IQ loss)?

Jan 7, 7:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.16%chance

141222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1979

153

By the end of 2050, will it be possible to quickly increase an adult human’s IQ by at least two standard deviations?

Mar 27, 1:00 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

28.01%chance

25604

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

892

Will most of the first 100 IQ-selected "designer babies" be born in China?

Jun 23, 1:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.64%chance

25507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1132

907

Are we getting less intelligent? Will our IQ scores get lower from now onwards? Are we headed for idiocracy?

Sep 3, 8:52 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.01%chance

25506

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1092

897

Will a European Union member state be one of the first 10 countries to select 10% of its population for IQ?

Jun 30, 1:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46%chance

16284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1036

965

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