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Prediction markets for IQ

What's the average IQ of active manifold users? (PERMANENT)

Apr 27, 8:33 PMDec 27, 10:59 PM

56.23%chance

140101362

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1436

1240

Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]

Jan 15, 8:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

53.23%chance

9083678

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1321

337

What is Elon Musk's IQ?

Sep 18, 7:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.19%chance

7814254

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1118

858

Will GPT-5 score at least 100 in an IQ test?

Feb 27, 9:20 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

92.63%chance

979689

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4035

457

What's my IQ?

Jan 29, 7:26 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

64.44%chance

715659

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1462

1051

What's my IQ? [Ṁ500 subsidy]

Jun 1, 2:20 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

57.45%chance

393870

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1402

1037

How much greater is Donald Trump's IQ than Kamala Harris's?

Oct 26, 3:57 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM

56.51%chance

121342

OptionProbability

NO

YES

2029

1210

By the end of 2050, will it be possible to quickly increase an adult human’s IQ by at least two standard deviations?

Mar 27, 1:00 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

28.04%chance

24603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

891

Will there be an academic paper written on the total effect of microplastics on human IQ loss by 2026? (in the same way there are papers written on organophosphate pesticides and air pollution on human IQ loss)?

Jan 7, 7:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.98%chance

13533

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1290

481

Are we getting less intelligent? Will our IQ scores get lower from now onwards? Are we headed for idiocracy?

Sep 3, 8:52 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.22%chance

23500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1097

893

Will a European Union member state be one of the first 10 countries to select 10% of its population for IQ?

Jun 30, 1:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46%chance

16284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1036

965

Will I believe that Klotho gene therapy in adults is a nontrivial cognitive enhancer (order of >5 IQ pts) EOY 2025?

Nov 9, 5:50 PMDec 31, 2:59 PM

38.87%chance

3256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1254

797

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