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Prediction markets for IQ

What's the average IQ of active manifold users? (PERMANENT)

Apr 27, 8:33 PMDec 27, 10:59 PM

56.58%chance

141101372

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1447

1232

Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]

Jan 15, 8:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

57%chance

9585361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1368

299

What is Elon Musk's IQ?

Sep 18, 7:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

61.44%chance

7915381

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1133

897

Will GPT-5 score at least 100 in an IQ test?

Feb 27, 9:20 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

93.15%chance

9911535

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4224

443

What's my IQ?

Jan 29, 7:26 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

63.19%chance

725684

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1418

1076

What's my IQ? [Ṁ500 subsidy]

Jun 1, 2:20 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

57.45%chance

393870

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1402

1037

How much greater is Donald Trump's IQ than Kamala Harris's?

Oct 26, 3:57 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM

63.25%chance

142456

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1362

100

Will any AI consistently get a perfect score on Maxim Lott's offline IQ test by the end of 2027?

Nov 1, 10:18 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

69.78%chance

391862

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1520

658

By the end of 2050, will it be possible to quickly increase an adult human’s IQ by at least two standard deviations?

Mar 27, 1:00 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

28.04%chance

24603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

891

Will there be an academic paper written on the total effect of microplastics on human IQ loss by 2026? (in the same way there are papers written on organophosphate pesticides and air pollution on human IQ loss)?

Jan 7, 7:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.49%chance

14583

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1340

435

Are we getting less intelligent? Will our IQ scores get lower from now onwards? Are we headed for idiocracy?

Sep 3, 8:52 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.22%chance

23500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1097

893

Will a European Union member state be one of the first 10 countries to select 10% of its population for IQ?

Jun 30, 1:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46%chance

16284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1036

965

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