Iran International News

Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Dec 31, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

17542357047

OptionVotes

YES

13150

8346

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

Dec 16, 2:35 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

55.33%chance

193358831

OptionVotes

YES

1114

899

USA x Iran ceasefire by end of march 31?

Feb 28, 6:14 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

10.43%chance

25282240

OptionVotes

YES

2930

341

Iran vs US (props)

Mar 7, 10:55 AMMar 7, 10:55 AM

38960825

OptionProbability

US military casualties exceed 100 by May 1, 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei named Supreme Leader by March 31, 2026

Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major facilities causing ≥5% production/export disruption) on energy infrastructure in ≥1 Gulf Cooperation Council state by June 30, 2026.

At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of March 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.

US or Israel strikes an Iranian power plant by May 1, 2026 (UTC)

Mojtaba Khamenei dies by December 31, 2026

Iran kinetically strikes the territory of any NATO member other than the US, excluding military bases, after March 22, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium (approx. 440kg at 60% or higher purity) is reported missing by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, IAEA, or equivalent major international outlet by June 30, 2026

US ground troops enter Iran by May 1, 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei is confirmed dead by the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2026

Iran takes at least one non-Iranian citizen hostage, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet before January 1, 2027

US launches a ground operation to seize highly enriched uranium from Fordow or another underground Iranian nuclear site before January 1, 2027, but fails to seize or destroy Iran's entire HEU stockpile per IAEA reports.

US ground troops are present on Kharg Island by April 30, 2026 (UTC)

Brent crude closes above $100/bbl on more calendar days than below from March 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026

US military casualties exceed 500 by December 31, 2026

US Congress passes a formal declaration of war on Iran or its proxies before January 1, 2027, reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major outlet.

The US-Iran war is ongoing as of December 31, 2026

US attacks Kharg Island's oil terminals by March 31, 2026 (UTC)

Saudi Arabia, Iraq, or Turkey deploys combat troops or conducts airstrikes against Iranian forces by June 1, 2026

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reaches at least 80% of pre-conflict (Jan-Feb 2026) average daily levels by April 15, 2026 (UTC), per MarineTraffic, Reuters, or equivalent AIS data.

More than 100 US citizens die in a single attack by Iran or its proxies (excluding lone wolves without direct support), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026

Iran inflicts widespread damage on US tech firm (e.g. Amazon, Microsoft) outposts or data centers in the Middle East by May 1, 2026

FBI or DHS publicly attributes a terrorist attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) causing 10+ deaths or equivalent major damage to Iran or Iran-backed groups (IRGC, Hezbollah, Houthis) by December 31, 2026

Reza Pahlavi is confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet to have entered Iran by December 31, 2026

Iranian regime (Islamic Republic government) collapses by July 1, 2026, via significant security force defections or opposition control of Tehran.

US national average regular gasoline price exceeds $5/gallon by June 1, 2026

Iran launches a drone attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) by December 31, 2026

Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major desalination plants causing ≥5% national water supply disruption) on desalination infrastructure in Israel or ≥1 GCC state by December 31, 2026

US military fatalities exceed 100 by May 1, 2026

The FCC revokes a US broadcast station's license explicitly citing its coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026

The US administration (via DOJ indictment or equivalent formal charge) indicts a US-based journalist or news organization with treason explicitly citing their coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026

Iran produces a functional nuclear weapon using primarily indigenous capabilities before January 1, 2027

US activates military draft by December 31, 2026

Brent crude's official daily settlement price exceeds $200/bbl before April 1, 2026

US or Israel detonates a nuclear weapon targeting Iran in 2026

Brent crude stays above $100/bbl through December 31, 2026

100

Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?

Mar 22, 1:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2358262

OptionProbability

Yes

US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?

Feb 3, 3:21 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

16%chance

8434744

OptionVotes

YES

2291

436

Prediction markets for Iran International

Prediction markets for Iran International

Prediction markets for Iran International

Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

USA x Iran ceasefire by end of march 31?

Iran vs US (props)

Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?

US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?

First to lose power: Khomeini, Trump or Netanyahu?

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Will Iran's regime fall before end of 2027?

Will Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi still be alive by June 1st 2026?

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

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