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Prediction markets for Iranian

Iranian strike on U.S. soil in 2025?

Jun 23, 6:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.14%chance

207769

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4869

212

Will conclusive evidence emerge that Nuno Loureiro was killed by the Iranian government or its agents before 2027?

Dec 18, 3:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.54%chance

136294

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6194

161

US boots on Iranian soil in 2025?

Jun 23, 6:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.49%chance

165016

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4613

217

Will Manifold look positively at the US bombing of Iranian nuclear sides on June 21st 2025 at their anniversary?

Jun 22, 1:15 AMJun 22, 6:59 AM

37.22%chance

211474

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1299

770

Will Iranian government action cause the deaths of at least 10 Americans within the borders of the US in 2025?

Jun 22, 1:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.45%chance

24925

OptionVotes

YES

NO

329

30

🇮🇷🇮🇱 Will Iranian leadership or Israeli leadership change first?

Oct 2, 12:56 PMMar 8, 4:59 AM

25918

OptionProbability

Israel - Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

Iran - Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei

55

45

Iranian Regime survives Trump Administration?

Apr 7, 8:59 PMJan 15, 7:59 AM

87.34%chance

16571

OptionVotes

NO

YES

263

38

Number of alleged Iranian spies caught in Israel from 7.10.2023 until the 31.12.2025

Jun 30, 8:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5436

OptionProbability

50-75

40-49

76-100

30-39

100+

54

26

8

6

6

Iranian fuel & gunpowder factory explosions caused by foreign actors?

Apr 29, 4:29 PMDec 31, 5:07 PM

21.44%chance

7135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

191

52

Conditional on complete oil & gas sector destruction: would the iranian regime collapse within 5 years?

Jun 21, 8:56 PMJun 21, 8:54 PM

62.81%chance

585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

Any of the Iranian National Jewels is stolen or destroyed or lost through 2031

Aug 31, 4:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.94%chance

273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

96

83

Will the two US citizens involved in the Iranian plot to kill Donald Trump be convicted?

Nov 8, 6:01 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

67.77%chance

465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

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