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Prediction markets for Iranian

Will Trump apologize for bombing Iranian school?

Mar 12, 3:18 PMMar 31, 3:14 PM

2%chance

10834830

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7000

143

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.7%chance

8325746

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8494

2739

New Iranian Supreme Leader is chosen in March 2026 and killed in March 2026.

Mar 4, 12:57 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

11.55%chance

16120670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2767

361

Will the Iranian protests end tragically?

Jan 9, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.24%chance

297862

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1182

847

Will conclusive evidence emerge that Nuno Loureiro was killed by the Iranian government or its agents before 2027?

Dec 18, 3:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.63%chance

146297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6081

164

Death toll of Iranian regime killings Jan. 8 and 9, 2026?

Jan 14, 4:49 PMMay 31, 3:00 PM

106069

OptionProbability

16,001+

13,001 - 16,000

5,0001 - 8,000

11,001 - 13,000

8,001 - 11,000

2,001 - 5,000

Below 2,000

61

9

8

8

7

6

1

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Mar 2, 6:03 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

17.41%chance

154046

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2041

596

Will Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi still be alive by June 1st 2026?

Mar 20, 3:17 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

182348

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will the Minab school strike be attributed to an Iranian missile by June 2026?

Mar 1, 12:15 AMJun 30, 4:00 AM

7.49%chance

192278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2535

1094

Will Manifold look positively at the US bombing of Iranian nuclear sides on June 21st 2025 at their anniversary?

Jun 22, 1:15 AMJun 22, 6:59 AM

56.15%chance

241920

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1132

884

Will Iranian-backed sleeper cell activity result in US casualties before 2029?

Mar 10, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.67%chance

221578

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

772

Iranian Regime survives Trump Administration?

Apr 7, 8:59 PMJan 15, 7:59 AM

59.37%chance

19633

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

83

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