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Prediction markets for Iranian

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.79%chance

5511142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7908

2969

Will the Iranian protests end tragically?

Jan 9, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.79%chance

286634

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1596

627

How many Iranians will be killed by it's regime in 2026?

Jan 11, 12:53 PMJan 12, 2:59 AM

446583

OptionProbability

40000+

20000-39999

10000-19999

6000-9999

3000 - 5999

2000- 2999

0 - 1999

53

25

10

6

4

1

0

How many people will die as a part of the 2025-26 Iranian protests before March 20th (up to 10k)?

Jan 11, 8:23 PMMar 20, 11:59 PM

156532

OptionProbability

10,000+

5,000 - 9,999

1,000 - 4,999

0 - 99

100 - 499

500 - 999

94

4

1

0

0

0

🇮🇷🇮🇱 Will Iranian leadership or Israeli leadership change first?

Oct 2, 12:56 PMMar 8, 4:59 AM

796447

OptionProbability

Iran - Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei

Israel - Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

62

38

Will conclusive evidence emerge that Nuno Loureiro was killed by the Iranian government or its agents before 2027?

Dec 18, 3:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.63%chance

146297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6081

164

How many people will die as a part of the 2025-26 Iranian protests before March 20th (up to 100k)?

Jan 14, 5:06 PMMar 20, 11:59 PM

163388

OptionProbability

Above 100,000

90,000 - 100,000

50,000 - 59,999

60,000 - 69,999

80,000 - 89,999

30,000 - 39,999

40,000 - 49,999

70,000 - 79,999

20,000 - 29,999

Below 10,000

10,000 - 19,999

23

12

10

10

10

9

9

8

4

2

2

Will Manifold look positively at the US bombing of Iranian nuclear sides on June 21st 2025 at their anniversary?

Jun 22, 1:15 AMJun 22, 6:59 AM

56.88%chance

231907

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1149

871

When will the Iranian protests end?

Jan 15, 9:56 PMFeb 17, 2:59 AM

9354

OptionProbability

Before January 1, 2027

Before April 1, 2026

Before July 1, 2026

Before March 1, 2026

Before February 15, 2026

Before February 1, 2026

89

85

85

71

43

19

Will the Iranian regime survive the date it predicted for Israel's destruction?

Oct 6, 12:43 PMSep 9, 8:59 PM

22.71%chance

10261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

185

54

Will Iranian protest successfully over Ali Khamenei's term before 1st march

Jan 14, 11:34 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

13.17%chance

7178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

257

39

Conditional on complete oil & gas sector destruction: would the iranian regime collapse within 5 years?

Jun 21, 8:56 PMJun 21, 8:54 PM

62.81%chance

585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

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