OptionProbability
Israel and Iran go to war
The U.S. goes to war with Iran
Ayatollah Khamenei is deposed
The US sinks at least one Iranian navy vessel
Crude oil prices top $100
The Strait of Hormuz is closed
At least 10,000 Iranian civilians are killed
Benjamin Netanyahu is deposed
At least 1,000 Israeli civilians are killed
World War 3 starts
A nuclear weapon is used offensively
98
72
39
34
20
15
11
10
3
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
257
