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Prediction markets for Iron

Will global iron + steel slag output exceed 600 million tonnes in 2030?

Nov 26, 5:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.07%chance

1517421

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13650

7326

Will Trump build an American Iron Dome?

Jul 19, 3:55 AMJan 20, 3:59 AM

75%chance

13418

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

58

Global iron + steel slag output exceeds 595M tonnes by end-2026?

Nov 26, 5:13 AMApr 28, 10:59 PM

65.06%chance

5367

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1364

733

Will iron-air battery additions (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 13.0 GWh by Dec 2028?

Feb 10, 9:37 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

57.68%chance

3302

OptionVotes

NO

YES

117

86

World blast-furnace iron slag output ≥355M tonnes by end-2026?

Nov 26, 5:15 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

58.92%chance

4200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1198

835

Global iron + steel slag intensity ≥ 0.31 tonnes per tonne of crude steel in 2026?

Nov 26, 5:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.1%chance

3190

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

903

Will iron-air battery additions (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 19.0 GWh by Sep 2029?

Feb 10, 9:40 PMSep 30, 4:00 AM

72.01%chance

2119

OptionVotes

NO

YES

160

62

When will Primitive Technology on Youtube create his next useful iron item?

Apr 4, 2:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5114

OptionProbability

Aug-Dec 2025

Jan-Jun 2026

2028 or Never

Jul-Dec 2027

Jan-Jun 2027

Jul-Dec 2026

25

21

16

14

13

11

Will “flash iron making” replicate by 2027?

Dec 17, 9:01 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38.46%chance

3110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

126

79

Will iron-air battery additions (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 7.0 GWh by Mar 2028?

Feb 10, 9:34 PMMar 31, 4:00 AM

77.41%chance

3109

OptionVotes

NO

YES

185

54

Will iron-air battery additions (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 17.0 GWh by Jun 2029?

Feb 10, 9:39 PMJun 30, 4:00 AM

78.66%chance

292

OptionVotes

NO

YES

192

52

Non-celebrity Vintage Boss Katana amplifier sells for more than price of 20 metric tons of iron ore or scrap by 2050

Dec 21, 12:12 AMDec 28, 2:59 PM

51.5%chance

440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

102

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