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Prediction markets for Iron

Will global iron + steel slag output exceed 600 million tonnes in 2030?

Nov 26, 5:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.05%chance

916287

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13949

7169

Will Iron Lung have a higher IMDB rating than The Edge of Sleep?

Dec 16, 4:51 AMFeb 8, 4:49 AM

5.9%chance

5329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

400

25

Will Trump build an American Iron Dome?

Jul 19, 3:55 AMJan 20, 3:59 AM

30.91%chance

11271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Will Robert Downey Jr. appear as Iron Man again in the MCU?

Nov 5, 6:31 PMNov 12, 10:59 PM

89.71%chance

9258

OptionVotes

NO

YES

207

25

Global iron + steel slag output exceeds 595M tonnes by end-2026?

Nov 26, 5:13 AMApr 28, 10:59 PM

60.73%chance

4246

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1243

804

World blast-furnace iron slag output ≥355M tonnes by end-2026?

Nov 26, 5:15 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

57.18%chance

3158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

865

Will the FDA approve skin patches for iron deficiency anemia by EOY 2026?

Dec 1, 6:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.08%chance

5148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

242

50

Will “flash iron making” replicate by 2027?

Dec 17, 9:01 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38.46%chance

3110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

126

79

Global iron + steel slag intensity ≥ 0.31 tonnes per tonne of crude steel in 2026?

Nov 26, 5:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.11%chance

2108

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

903

When will Primitive Technology on Youtube create his next useful iron item?

Apr 4, 2:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

492

OptionProbability

Aug-Dec 2025

Jan-Jun 2026

2028 or Never

Jul-Dec 2027

Jan-Jun 2027

Jul-Dec 2026

36

18

14

12

11

10

Will Hearts of Iron 5 (HoI5) have Donald Trump in it?

Jan 20, 9:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.69%chance

390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

53

Non-celebrity Vintage Boss Katana amplifier sells for more than price of 20 metric tons of iron ore or scrap by 2050

Dec 21, 12:12 AMDec 28, 2:59 PM

51.5%chance

440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

102

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