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Prediction markets for Iron

Will global iron + steel slag output exceed 600 million tonnes in 2030?

Nov 26, 5:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.07%chance

1317391

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13649

7327

Will iron-air battery additions (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 0.8 GWh by Sep 2026?

Feb 10, 9:31 PMSep 30, 4:00 AM

36.6%chance

7406

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

76

Global iron + steel slag output exceeds 595M tonnes by end-2026?

Nov 26, 5:13 AMApr 28, 10:59 PM

65.06%chance

5367

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1364

733

Will iron-air battery additions (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 5.0 GWh by Dec 2027?

Feb 10, 4:18 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

41.56%chance

3266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

Will Robert Downey Jr. appear as Iron Man again in the MCU?

Nov 5, 6:31 PMNov 12, 10:59 PM

89.71%chance

9258

OptionVotes

NO

YES

207

25

Will iron-air battery additions (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 11.0 GWh by Sep 2028?

Feb 10, 9:36 PMSep 30, 4:00 AM

67.64%chance

3232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

World blast-furnace iron slag output ≥355M tonnes by end-2026?

Nov 26, 5:15 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

58.92%chance

4200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1198

835

Global iron + steel slag intensity ≥ 0.31 tonnes per tonne of crude steel in 2026?

Nov 26, 5:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.1%chance

3190

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

903

Will iron-air battery additions (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 17.0 GWh by Jun 2029?

Feb 10, 9:39 PMJun 30, 4:00 AM

78.66%chance

292

OptionVotes

NO

YES

192

52

When will Primitive Technology on Youtube create his next useful iron item?

Apr 4, 2:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

492

OptionProbability

Aug-Dec 2025

Jan-Jun 2026

2028 or Never

Jul-Dec 2027

Jan-Jun 2027

Jul-Dec 2026

36

18

14

12

11

10

Will iron-air battery additions (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 25.0 GWh by Jun 2030?

Feb 10, 9:43 PMJun 30, 4:00 AM

73.35%chance

285

OptionVotes

NO

YES

166

60

Non-celebrity Vintage Boss Katana amplifier sells for more than price of 20 metric tons of iron ore or scrap by 2050

Dec 21, 12:12 AMDec 28, 2:59 PM

51.5%chance

440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

102

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