Isomorphic News

An attempt to fix the "Will this close above 50%" market. (READ DESCRIPTION)

Jul 19, 8:37 PMSep 1, 3:59 AM

40%chance

74824

OptionVotes

YES

1225

816

Can quantum computer check isomorphism of graphs in the described way?

Sep 12, 5:09 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM

3%chance

103588

OptionVotes

YES

1247

951

Is Graph Isomorphism NP-Complete?

Nov 18, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

7.11%chance

231255

OptionVotes

YES

1659

886

Which of the following breakthroughs will Deepmind achieve by 2030?

Mar 1, 10:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

271096

OptionProbability

Find a room temperature superconductor, highly efficient photovoltaic cells, or an ultra-strong lightweight material

Find a cure for cancer, Alzheimer's or Diabetis

Is Manifold better-calibrated than financial markets on questions about future asset prices?

Mar 10, 11:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.04%chance

10810

OptionVotes

YES

730

168

Is Graph Isomorphism in P?

Nov 18, 6:50 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

50.64%chance

19719

OptionVotes

YES

1184

729

What is the complexity theoretic status of P vs NP, ETH, and Graph Isomorphism?

Dec 8, 9:26 PMDec 16, 5:59 AM

4610

OptionProbability

ETH true, GI in P

ETH true, GI NP-intermediate

P != NP, ETH false, GI NP-intermediate

P != NP, ETH false, GI in P

P = NP

P != NP, ETH false, GI NP-complete

Is Graph Isomorphism NP-intermediate?

Feb 14, 1:01 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

44%chance

10348

OptionVotes

YES

213

161

Will Diablo V have a non-isomorphic camera?

Mar 21, 7:24 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8.5%chance

3154

OptionVotes

YES

239

Which paper will win the Gödel prize in 2026

Jul 21, 7:03 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

140

OptionProbability

Other

MIP* = RE

The Complexity of Gradient Descent: CLS = PPAD ∩ PLS

Graph Isomorphism in Quasipolynomial Time

A Dichotomy Theorem for Nonuniform CSPs

Superpolynomial Lower Bounds Against Low-Depth Algebraic Circuits

An Average-Case Depth Hierarchy Theorem for Boolean Circuits

Learning Algorithms from Natural Proofs

Deciding Parity Games in Quasi-polynomial Time

A Proof of the CSP Dichotomy Conjecture

Induced subgraphs of hypercubes and a proof of the Sensitivity Conjecture

Is the Generalized Poincaré Conjecture true for 4-dimensional smooth manifolds?

Jul 28, 6:06 PMJan 1, 7:06 PM

52.71%chance

226

OptionVotes

YES

106

Isomorphic News

Prediction markets for Isomorphic

Prediction markets for Isomorphic

Prediction markets for Isomorphic

An attempt to fix the "Will this close above 50%" market. (READ DESCRIPTION)

Can quantum computer check isomorphism of graphs in the described way?

Is Graph Isomorphism NP-Complete?

Which of the following breakthroughs will Deepmind achieve by 2030?

Is Manifold better-calibrated than financial markets on questions about future asset prices?

Is Graph Isomorphism in P?

What is the complexity theoretic status of P vs NP, ETH, and Graph Isomorphism?

Is Graph Isomorphism NP-intermediate?

Will Diablo V have a non-isomorphic camera?

Which paper will win the Gödel prize in 2026

Is the Generalized Poincaré Conjecture true for 4-dimensional smooth manifolds?

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