OptionProbability
Significant protests are reported in February and March
Iran strikes Israel with missiles
The US launches airstrikes
Iran strikes US bases
The US launches airstrikes on three different days
Israel and Iran go to war again
The rial loses 1/3 the value it had on January 1, 2026 (unofficially / on the black market)
Iran strikes US bases and kills at least one American
Ayatollah Khamenei is removed from power
The Strait of Hormuz is mined or otherwise closed
US ground troops enter Iran
72
51
49
48
46
25
23
11
9
America
Israel
61
39
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1035
963
130
77
1553
644
473
21
100
