OptionProbability
Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)
Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)
Second Muslim ban
Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot
Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position
Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month
Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people
Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA
$TSLA reaches $400 a share
price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)
plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe
Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch
RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position
Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)
Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states
Federal employees are ordered to go to work
Government shutdown
A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken
Trump declassifies JFK files
The US leaves the World Health Organization
John Bolton indicted
A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported
Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)
At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES
NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)
NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker
"The New Norm" ends
trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)
Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE
New James Bond actor is presented
Republican lose a House seat in a special election
Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US
Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives
Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants
Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1
United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)
At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES
p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)
memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park
any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state
Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees
The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)
Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more
trump gets hospitalized
A new supreme court justice appointed
doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)
Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire
FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research
A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies
Fair elections in 2028
Approval < 35%
A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal
Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)
3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest
The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems
Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election
USA experiences a recession.
Vances have another kid
DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices
2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart
2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025
The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point
Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs
plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East
Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country
Polymarket becomes legal in the United States
Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi
Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference
there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)
Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days
Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice
A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act
Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader
Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice
John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader
The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25
Russo-Ukrainian War ends
Dow rises above 65,000
Trump gives himself a nickname in third person
At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES
New
US Invasion of any North/South American country
Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries
There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits
Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands
Trump visits Africa
Congress overrides a presidential veto
A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling
At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment
Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)
US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")
The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil
A measurable decrease in chronic disease
Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US
plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)
Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory
Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government
BTC falls below $38,000
IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics
McDonald's reopens in Russia
A major war in Asia occurs
Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve
his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028
Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections
Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary
AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)
Joe Biden dies
Trump says a racial slur
Trump says anything that is pro animal rights
Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide
Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar
inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters
Trump and Obama shake hands
US national bitcoin reserve created
Tesla
Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over
Trump announces he is tired of winning
Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days
The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty
The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)
Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel
Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)
Department of Defense renamed to Department of War
New national park created
transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked
Repeal obamacare
A member of the Trump family runs for Congress
Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory
China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan
Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)
A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress
Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress
Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico
<1.5 million civilian federal employees
China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty
The department of education gets desolved
Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled
Constitutional Amendment
Anthony Fauci is indicted
JD Vance elected President
Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long
Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000
A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations
Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him
War is declared against another nation
10% fewer government agencies
Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding
MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday
Steve Bannon goes to prison again
55 or more Republican senate seats
RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan
A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model
Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC
Iran acquires a nuclear weapon
Trump gets covid (again)
The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump
Approval < 25%
American Manned Lunar Landing
H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared
Trump gets shot
54 or more Republican senate seats
A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress
military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit
Laura Loomer gets any government role
RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point
Record level unemployment
Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats
Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)
Trump dies
Another pandemic
One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government
John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States
Recess appointment to SCOTUS
Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits
Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day
Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year
south park is canceled/discontinued
Trump runs for a third term
The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels
Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide
Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out
Cannabis is federally legalized
Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination
Trump is assassinated
Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)
Trump extends his term past 4 years
Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people
Trump loses the fake tan
Anthony Fauci goes to prison
Trump is seen shirtless
Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets
The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem
The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known
TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD
A national ban on gender-affirming care
Starship lands on Mars
Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them
2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart
Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt
another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)
An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.
"covfefe" posted again
Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten
Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE
Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute
wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate
Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's
30 year treasury rate >15.00%
Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way
Constitutional Amendment
Ann Selzer arrested
Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking
A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically
Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US
Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears
Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle
Trump bans abortion nationwide
Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border
Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program
Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.
Major Yellowstone caldera scare
Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement
Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital
Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)
Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government
Trump and Melania divorce
SpaceX is nationalized
Trump bans all vaccines nationwide
Trump enacts jus primae noctis
Anthony Fauci is convicted
Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r
New US national anthem
Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk
Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"
A hurricane will be nuked
Jimmy Carter dies
Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026
Matt Gaetz is rejected by the Senate for Attorney General, then DeSantis appoints him to Rubio's vacated Senate seat
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0
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OptionProbability
The Jews control at least one nation's government
Imane Khelif is intersex
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
DHMO in the water supply
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
Osama bin Laden didn't act alone
Santa is rigged
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
√-1 isn't real
Smartphones listen in on private conversations
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that the Self-Indication Assumption is true.
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
Groundhog Day is rigged
Gamergate was right
The Church and elites deliberately suppressed and distorted the more Gnostic message of Jesus Christ.
The NBA rigs the draft lottery
The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West
Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.
Annie Altman's abuse claims
An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips
John McAfee didn't kill himself
Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Major deaths, terror, and tragedy events are routinely hoaxes per Miles Mathis.
The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only
Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does
Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations
Eating your veggies is bad for your health
This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba
Eliezer wrote The Erogamer
The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)
Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage
China made covid 19 in a lab
Rory Stewart worked for MI6
At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population
The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022
Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US
FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war
Dead Internet theory
The article "Deliberate Errors" documenting winks connecting Apollo and Kubrick films is correct, because Kubrick played a role in filming some of the Apollo missions.
Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT
Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays
My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.
The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin
Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)
The Clintons assasinated their rivals
@strutheo is @notrickspringfield
China was not genociding Uyghurs
Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.
Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency
Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.
lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀
The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship
The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.
Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.
Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.
The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time
Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen
At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that Trump/Musk model the first/second beast of Revelation.
Epstein was alive as of Jan 2026, but dead in the meantime since his "suicide"
A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products
The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth
Sue Gray was a spy
Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy
We live in an ancestor simulation per Nick Bostrom.
Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.
The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars
The 9/11 terror attack date is meaningfully connected to Ernest Martin's theory that Jesus was born on September 11, 3 BC rather than a coincidence.
Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)
covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese
The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop
As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator
The CIA killed JFK
The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up
Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real
"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024
Princess Diana was assassinated
The NFL is rigged
The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior
Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator
US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily
Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election
Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle
A cure for cancer has already been found
Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot
South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023
Harold Holt murdered
Trump and Netanyahu had Charlie Kirk killed to take control of TPUSA
COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health
Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)
The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws
Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem
Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")
Ogopogo is real
QAnon
Exercise is bad for your health
A support network of close friendships is bad for your health
Israel killed JFK
Trump devolved the government in anticipation of 2020 election fraud and replaced Biden with an actor wearing a mask.
Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so
Allen Iverson invented A.I.
The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around
Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency
Bush did 9/11
Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)
carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming
QR codes are satanic
Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice
Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese
Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme
China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)
Human didnt evolve from apes
Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health
Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension
Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina
Jerry Sandusky is innocent.
Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight
Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics
Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization
South Sudan has had nukes since 2023
Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic
xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition
@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie
Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Rationalussy isn't real.
Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.
Epstein was still alive as of Jan 2026
Tupac is still alive in 2024
Bielefeld does not exist
The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen
Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first
The Mandella Effect in general is real
The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab
The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.
US government is harboring aliens
Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent
Birds aren't real
climate change isn't human caused
Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations
Jeffrey Epstein is still alive
Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil
The Hellenistic civilization invented USB
The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier
Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP
Climate change isn’t real
The moon landing was fake
The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024
You personally live in Truman Show style captivity
The Romance languages are not descended from Latin
The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization
The 9/11 terror attack was a justified false flag to secure a weapon of mass destruction (destabalizing religious text and/or supertechnology) at the tomb of Gilgamesh.
The illuminati runs the world
*All* health care is net negative for health
Michelle Obama is a man
Brazilian money is not real
Yeti is real or similar creature
Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina
The earth is a dodecahedron
Skibidi Toilet is real
Q is Putin
It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears
Africa isn't real
Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team
There is no female orgasm
The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.
The earth is flat
*All* vaccines are net negative for health
End of the world in 2012
Earth is hollow
Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.
Finland isn't real
Australia isn't real.
5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on
Nuclear weapons have never existed
Flossing is bad for your health
Brushing your teeth is bad for your health
HIV doesn’t cause AIDS
Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person
The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.
Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001
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OptionProbability
Is a man
Is under 30 years old
Has military background
Is charged with murder before 2026
Is alive on 12/31/2025
Is cited by Trump administration as a reason for deploying more troops to any city by 12/31/2025
Is white and not hispanic
Is used as a pretext to restrict immigration
Was acting alone
Has ties to extremist groups
Has ever been diagnosed with a mental health condition
Has the death penalty sought against him by the prosecution
Accepts a plea deal instead of going to trial
Is convicted in relation to these crimes by 1/1/2027
Has been awarded for services to the United States
Was motivated by political ideology
Has been convicted of a felony
Was intoxicated at the time of the shooting
Had the firearm used in the crime legally
Is a U.S. citizen
Registered as a Democrat or voted in a Democratic primary
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21
19
12
4
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OptionVotes
NO
YES
13928
7195
OptionProbability
Bowers v. Hardwick
Humphrey's Executor v. United States
Brown v. Entertainment Merchants Association
Locke v. Davey
Carey v. Population Services International (Might be N/A'ed. See Below)
Employment Division v. Smith
Morrison v. Olson
The Slaughter House Cases
The Insular Cases
Carey v. Population Services International (Holding regarding the restrictions on the distribution of contraceptives)
Hill v. Colorado
Kennedy v. Louisiana
Arizona v. United States
Nixon v. General Services Administration
Plyler v. Doe
Carey v. Population Services International (Holding regarding the advertisement of contraceptives)
New York Times v. Sullivan
United States v. Wong Kim Ark (see note in comments)
Mapp v. Ohio
Texas v. Johnson
Jacobson v. Massachusetts
Bivens v. Six Unknown Named Agents
NLRB v. Noel Canning
United States v. Nixon
Griswold v. Connecticut
Gideon v. Wainwright
Miranda v. Arizona
Reynolds v. Sims
Romer v. Evans
Ex parte Young
Lawrence v. Texas
Obergefell v. Hodges
Batson v. Kentucky
Loving v. Virginia
100
95
52
48
46
35
35
35
34
34
31
31
30
27
27
26
22
17
16
16
15
10
10
10
9
9
9
8
6
6
6
5
3
2
OptionProbability
Mass AI-driven job displacement event
A government declaration/statement (any country)
Reports about software
Reports about financial activity
Report about sociological observations
Report about economic observations
AI-related academic achievement
Attack on military target
Attack on civilian target
AI-related weapon announcement/use/threat
A statement from an individual (human)
AI-related fake news
AI-related political movement (pro or anti)
A private company declaration/statement (any company)
Discovery of a spy / mole working for foreign power (or for an AI)
Military activity / posture change
An AI-related apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target
AI-related mass psychosis/hysteria event
An AI uncovers evidence relating to a previous event
A government of a major nation orders the shutdown of a significant AI service
AI-designed cyberweapon
AI makes prediction about future event
Open source model release
Release of a closed-source/closed-weights model
Reports of aerial devices/machines
Reports of market activity
AI-related corruption scandal
AI-related theft
A new war between nation states
AI-related resignation
Reports of activity in online communities
Reports of activity on internet-connected servers
Reports of activity in open source software
A declaration/statement from a military / intelligence agency
Reports of activity on internet media distribution platforms
People receiving messages (text / phone calls / whatsapp / ...)
AI-related diplomacy
Reports about consumer activity
Reports about identity theft
Reports of activity in religious communities
AI-related media (movie/song/book ...)
Reports about industrial activity
Reports about physical machines
Reports about criminal activity
AI-related competition achievement
A viral meme
An announcement from an AI lab similar to o3
AI-related Internet shutdown in some country
AI-related cyberattack
Conventional weapons attack on AI infrastructure / supply chain
A declaration/statement from an AI (any AI)
AI-related sex scandal
A piece of viral AI-generated media that has a strong/unexpected effect on large numbers of people (~psychological)
AI parasitism / Addictive-Persuasive Agent
Attack on Taiwan
AI-related terrorist attack
AI-related assassination
AI-designed pathogen
AI drug discovery
AI material discovery
Death of an individual in suspicious circumstances
AI-related astronomical event / observation / analysis (can also include satellites)
Reports of underwater activity
Reports of activity on blockchain networks
Reports of activity in academic communities
Publication of a research paper (or pre-print / blog post / poster / twitter thread / ... -- about research-related topic)
Reports of activity in online video games
Reports about people getting scammed
AI-related cult
AI system demonstrates general robotic control
AI causes significant stock market event
Major AGI lab whistleblower revelation
AI-related archaeology
Major AI safety incident or accident
AI system makes scientific breakthrough
AI system solves major unsolved math problem
An AI lab demonstrates an automated AI research engineer
AI-related nuclear weapon use
49
45
41
41
41
41
41
40
40
40
39
38
38
36
35
35
35
34
34
30
30
29
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
26
25
25
25
24
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
18
15
15
15
11
11
11
11
10
OptionProbability
Apple gets subjected to financial penalties
Opening Up of NFC and Other Hardware Features - Apple is required to provide third-party developers access to hardware features currently restricted, such as the NFC chip used for tap-to-pay transactions.
IApple gets mandated to implement interoperability measures for messaging and smartwatch functionalities
The ruling forces Apple to allow developers to use their payment systems within their apps, bypassing Apple's in-app purchase system and the associated fees.
The court sets clear deadlines for when Apple must implement these changes, such as within 90 days of the ruling, providing a clear timeline for verification.
The court orders Apple to revise Apple's App Store guidelines to allow for more competition.
Establishment of a mechanism for ongoing oversight of Apple's compliance with the lawsuit's rulings.
Apple is compelled to allow developers more freedom in presentation and monetization of apps, including enabling different app discovery methods (ex : use of icons or tiles for mini programs, categorizing them, or using virtual currencies).
Mandatory Allowance of Third-Party App Stores and Sideloading
The court finds Apple guilty of monopolizing or attempting to monopolize the performance smartphone market and/or the broader smartphone market in the United States in violation of Section 2 of the Sherman Act.
The court defines specific permissible actions for super apps and cloud gaming services on iOS, like not requiring each game or service within a super app to be submitted to the App Store individually.
If state antitrust laws are violated, Apple could be fined a specific dollar amount per incident of anticompetitive conduct, as defined by state statutes. (Conditional market)
The court requires Apple to permit cloud gaming services on its devices
The lawsuit leads to a decision that deems Apple's 30% commission rate as excessive.
The court may issue injunctions to prohibit Apple from continuing the specific practices that are identified as anticompetitive, such as using control over app distribution and private APIs to undermine competition.
The court mandates a specific maximum percentage for App Store commissions, such as reducing the current 30% fee to a lower figure, like 15% or 10%.
The court orders Apple to apply its rules and guidelines fairly across all apps and not enforce them selectively to benefit its services or harm competitors.
Apple gets ordered to give restitution to developers or consumers who have been adversely affected by its policies.
The court could require a measurable increase in the number of apps or services in previously restricted categories, such as digital wallets or cloud gaming, available on iOS within a certain period post-ruling.
Compulsory API Access: Apple gets ordered to provide third-party developers with access to the same APIs and functionalities that its own apps use, which could be tracked by a compliance monitor appointed by the court.
80
66
66
66
65
62
55
55
55
52
48
48
47
47
43
40
36
36
33
32
OptionProbability
Travel Agent - as we know it - to buy the travel packages <2027 (during 2026)
Customer Service Representative < 2028
Market Research Analyst < 2030
Compliance Officer < 2030
Human Resources Manager < 2030
Graphic Designer < 2028
Teacher < 2040
Judges < 2040
55
53
37
35
34
33
33
28
OptionProbability
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (2022 value: 2.0m)
Office Clerks, General (2022 value: 2.5m)
Customer Service Representatives (2022 value: 2.9m)
Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive (2022 value: 1.8m)
Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks (2022 value: 1.6m)
Retail Salespersons (2022 value: 3.6m)
Fast Food and Counter Workers (2022 value: 3.3m)
Cashiers (2022 value: 3.3m)
Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand (2022 value: 2.9m)
Stockers and Order Fillers (2022 value: 2.8m)
Waiters and Waitresses (2022 value: 2.1m)
Software Developers (2022 value: 1.5m)
Home Health and Personal Care Aides (2022 value: 3.5m)
General and Operations Managers (2022 value: 3.4m)
Registered Nurses (2022 value: 3.1m)
Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners (2022 value: 2.1m)
First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers (2022 value: 1.5m)
Maintenance and Repair Workers, General (2022 value: 1.5m)
20
14
12
10
10
8
5
4
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Measles cases triple
Cyber terrorism incident
Blue wave midterms
AI slop completely takes over platforms
More assassinations
Obesity rates dramatically decline
Chain movie theaters close across the country
More governments embrace Bitcoin
Really bad hurricane season
AI bubble pops (but it's not that bad)
Americans become more united
Trump has (another?) stroke
A major merger of streaming services
Solar power doubles
Emo makes a comeback
YouTube surpasses Netflix in paid subscribers
Stagflation
Gen Alpha rebels against digital media
EV sales skyrocket
Twitter shuts down
Robot restaurant trend
A new nonpartisan political movement starts
War with Venezuela
Everyone becomes a hipster
80
72
66
66
66
66
50
50
45
41
41
37
34
34
34
34
24
24
24
24
24
21
17
17
OptionProbability
MaiaSpace
HyPrSpace
Latitude
Sirius Space Services
34
32
32
32
OptionVotes
NO
YES
144
69
