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Top stories

Sensex Drops 693.86 Points, Nifty Falls 213.65 Points After Six-Day Rally Amid ₹11,801.70 Crore FII Selling

Sensex Drops 693.86 Points, Nifty Falls 213.65 Points After Six-Day Rally Amid ₹11,801.70 Crore FII Selling

Authors

3

4 months ago

India Clears Rs 9,814 Crore Airport and Ring Road Projects

Authors

3

4 months ago

Prediction markets for IT

Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by December 31, 2025?

Jan 7, 1:57 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2.61%chance

1289646285

OptionVotes

YES

NO

686149

27379

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

31.21%chance

687290137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5548

3791

State Farm announces it is leaving the California residential insurance market, announcement before December 31, 2025

Feb 15, 2:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.95%chance

38206065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237954

20492

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Jul 13, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

85.71%chance

85131873

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3204

808

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3757067

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

32

28

25

15

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

31.25%chance

5818669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14461

7017

Will SCOTUS strike down the preemptive pardons if it considers the case?

Jan 20, 2:01 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

20%chance

3814920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18124

6187

Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in Nov. 2025 than it was in Nov. 2024

Jan 22, 9:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.43%chance

128234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15509

5886

Will Waymo One expand its SF Bay Area service area to Marin County by December 31, 2026?

Jan 3, 9:53 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

64.35%chance

607115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13407

7472

If I buy physical indium for investment, will I regret it in 5 years from now?

May 24, 1:59 AMMay 5, 3:59 AM

63.04%chance

796801

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14151

8635

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.22%chance

213184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11698

8549

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

Jul 2, 11:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71040

OptionProbability

Other "loud" outcome

non-hedonic utilitronium

Orgasmium

Matrioshka brains to simulate zillions of ems

initiate vacuum collapse

It will be "quiet" and not significantly alter the rest of the universe.

Paperclips or widgets

Matrioshka brains to simulate torture of everyone who didn't help create it

Literal rats on literal heroin

Wait till carbon white dwarfs cool enough to turn to diamond and then cut them into cool shapes

29

28

13

7

7

5

4

3

2

1

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