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Prediction markets for Jacobs Solutions

Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?

Oct 20, 7:33 PMOct 21, 3:59 AM

16.24%chance

203737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2191

229

What will US GDP growth be 1 year after AI achieves programming competency?

Jan 11, 8:06 PMJan 2, 9:59 AM

35.18%chance

9179

OptionProbability

YES

NO

551

366

Which, if any, GPT-n will outperform AlphaGeometry merely via prompting, by 2030?

Jan 17, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

379

OptionProbability

GPT-6

GPT-5

None

GPT-7

GPT-8

GPT-9

GPT-4

21

19

16

12

12

12

7

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