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Prediction markets for Jan

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

Dec 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

87.72%chance

320730776

OptionVotes

NO

YES

267500

37177

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM

9.8%chance

118231887

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2691

1006

Will Trump pardon Luigi Mangione prior to Jan 20, 2029?

Jan 26, 3:07 AMFeb 25, 7:59 AM

1.01%chance

52150688

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125324

4099

Will Donald Trump or Joe Biden die before Jan 2028?

Jul 27, 7:08 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

33.32%chance

14145141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1403

683

Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)

Jul 5, 9:04 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

71.33%chance

9339766

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2508

1931

Will Vanguard bring a Bitcoin ETF to market before Jan 1 2030?

Jan 11, 6:45 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

32.79%chance

10433498

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1594

1007

Resolves YES on Jan 1 2029

Jun 14, 4:57 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

99%chance

3024238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9950

101

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

Sep 24, 9:28 AMOct 3, 2:59 PM

46.22%chance

5521013

OptionVotes

YES

NO

52682

46084

Will the war in Ukraine still be ongoing on Jan 1 2030?

May 14, 1:21 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

16%chance

9414030

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1896

1068

Will Tesla have more autonomous vehicles providing ridehailing than Waymo on Jan 2nd 2027

Jun 25, 10:30 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM

47.06%chance

7113621

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1061

943

Will the next U.S. President (elected in Nov. 2024 & inaugurated in Jan. 2025) serve their full 4-year term?

Feb 2, 3:07 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

74.84%chance

715649

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1731

1114

"Donald Trump US president at any point between Jan 21, 2029, and Jan 20, 2033?"

Apr 1, 4:08 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

19.62%chance

14805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3083

2459

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