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Prediction markets for Jan

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

Dec 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

83%chance

353786796

OptionVotes

NO

YES

221279

45002

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM

8.49%chance

118232237

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3041

971

Will Donald Trump or Joe Biden die before Jan 2028?

Jul 27, 7:08 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

35.75%chance

14546605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

721

Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)

Jul 5, 9:04 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

71.33%chance

9339766

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2508

1931

Will Vanguard bring a Bitcoin ETF to market before Jan 1 2030?

Jan 11, 6:45 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

32.79%chance

10433498

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1594

1007

Resolves YES on Jan 1 2029

Jun 14, 4:57 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

99%chance

3024238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9950

101

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

Sep 24, 9:28 AMOct 3, 2:59 PM

49.12%chance

6123758

OptionVotes

YES

NO

49676

48822

Will Tesla have more autonomous vehicles providing ridehailing than Waymo on Jan 2nd 2027

Jun 25, 10:30 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM

24.62%chance

8421974

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1751

572

Will the war in Ukraine still be ongoing on Jan 1 2030?

May 14, 1:21 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

16.71%chance

9714405

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1823

1082

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $2 Trillion before Jan 1st, 2030?

Feb 4, 12:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.02%chance

162655

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1199

834

"Donald Trump US president at any point between Jan 21, 2029, and Jan 20, 2033?"

Apr 1, 4:08 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

18.66%chance

15955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3233

2424

Supreme Court Justice Out/New Justice Confirmed by EOD Jan 3 2027?

Mar 25, 8:12 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM

1250

OptionProbability

No Supreme Court Justice Leaves

Supreme Court Justice Leaves + New Justice Confirmed

Supreme Court Justice Leaves + No Justice Confirmed

43

36

21

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