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Top stories

US Ends $800 Duty Exemption, Global Postal Services Suspend Deliveries

US Domestic Policy

US Ends $800 Duty Exemption, Global Postal Services Suspend Deliveries

Authors

86

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Japan Post

When will human literary translators become unnecessary?

Dec 11, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

12.84%chance

211146

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1153

1050

Will I publish more Substack articles in 2026 than in 2025 (58)?

Jan 10, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.75%chance

9636

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1484

674

Will China's total Eu exports for June 2025–July 2026 exceed 220000 kg?

Mar 30, 8:52 PMSep 30, 4:00 AM

78.36%chance

7624

OptionVotes

NO

YES

190

53

Will China's total Eu exports for June 2025–July 2026 exceed 140000 kg?

Mar 30, 8:52 PMSep 30, 4:00 AM

77.92%chance

10561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

188

53

Will the Northern Raccoon, aka Common Raccoon (Procyon lotor) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 28, 9:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.22%chance

5317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

815

397

Will China's total Eu exports for 14 months ending July 2026 exceed 25000 kg?

Mar 30, 8:52 PMSep 30, 4:00 AM

75.09%chance

3233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

174

58

Epstein-Barr virus vaccine by 2032?

Oct 26, 7:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.53%chance

4208

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

93

Global poverty: Will world life expectancy increase to <5 years of the leading large country's life expectancy by 2050?

Jan 29, 7:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.83%chance

8167

OptionVotes

YES

NO

204

147

Will China's total Eu exports for June 2025–July 2026 exceed 70000 kg?

Mar 30, 8:52 PMSep 30, 4:00 AM

76.58%chance

4133

OptionVotes

NO

YES

181

55

Will Brazil's April–September 2026 ferroniobium exports exceed 80 kt?

Mar 30, 9:43 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

28.37%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

50

Will Brazil's April–September 2026 ferroniobium exports exceed 65 kt?

Mar 30, 9:43 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

45.82%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

92

Will Brazil's April–September 2026 ferroniobium exports exceed 30 kt

Mar 30, 9:42 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

88.16%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

67

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