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Top stories

US Ends $800 Duty Exemption, Global Postal Services Suspend Deliveries

US Domestic Policy

US Ends $800 Duty Exemption, Global Postal Services Suspend Deliveries

Authors

86

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Japan Post

When will human literary translators become unnecessary?

Dec 11, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

12.84%chance

211146

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1153

1050

Will I publish more Substack articles in 2026 than in 2025 (58)?

Jan 10, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.75%chance

9636

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1484

674

Will China HS 2805.30 exports for January–April 2026 exceed 6000 kg?

Mar 30, 10:07 PMJun 30, 4:00 AM

35.1%chance

6406

OptionVotes

YES

NO

126

83

Will the Northern Raccoon, aka Common Raccoon (Procyon lotor) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 28, 9:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.22%chance

5317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

815

397

Will China's total Eu exports for June 2025–July 2026 exceed 140000 kg?

Mar 30, 8:52 PMSep 30, 4:00 AM

47%chance

4197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

94

Will China's total Eu exports for June 2025–July 2026 exceed 220000 kg?

Mar 30, 8:52 PMSep 30, 4:00 AM

36.17%chance

3171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

Global poverty: Will world life expectancy increase to <5 years of the leading large country's life expectancy by 2050?

Jan 29, 7:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.83%chance

8167

OptionVotes

YES

NO

204

147

Epstein-Barr virus vaccine by 2032?

Oct 26, 7:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.12%chance

376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

Will China's total Eu exports for 14 months ending July 2026 exceed 25000 kg?

Mar 30, 8:52 PMSep 30, 4:00 AM

70.61%chance

255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

155

65

Will China's total Eu exports for 14 months ending April 2026 exceed 70000 kg?

Mar 30, 8:51 PMJun 30, 4:00 AM

66.22%chance

240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

71

Will Brazil's April–September 2026 ferroniobium exports exceed 65 kt?

Mar 30, 9:43 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

45.82%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

92

Will Brazil's April–September 2026 ferroniobium exports exceed 80 kt?

Mar 30, 9:43 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

30.94%chance

115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

45

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