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Top stories

Big Tech’s ‘Reverse Acquihires’ Drain AI Startups of Talent

Authors

16

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Japan Times

Obama arrested in 2025?

Jul 21, 2:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1.01%chance

4047450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18697

1998

Will the Bank of Japan have a negative interest rate again before the end of 2025?

Mar 19, 6:30 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.45%chance

327470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4604

474

Will Trump threaten to cancel AUKUS before 2029?

Feb 7, 8:18 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

65.96%chance

91972

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1392

718

Will a human walk on Mars before we get a cure for cancer?

Feb 3, 7:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

71.82%chance

241775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

956

Will we have a terrestrial space elevator by 2085?

Aug 29, 8:39 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

15.04%chance

231268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1067

965

Will Japan no longer be a developed country by 2050?

Aug 27, 2:11 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

10.34%chance

151222

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

710

Will Russia rejoin G7/G8 before EOY 2050?

Jun 12, 3:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

46.5%chance

15800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

932

Will Japan gain de facto control of Shikotan island (one of the Kuril islands) from Russia before 2031?

Jan 5, 11:13 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.01%chance

13414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1016

840

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?

Apr 17, 7:54 PMDec 14, 12:00 PM

72%chance

14346

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

949

Full VR Brain Computer Interface before 2033?

Mar 12, 11:05 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

15.28%chance

7329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

311

99

Will life expectancy in any prefectures of Japan reach 90 years before end of 2040?

May 30, 12:31 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

54.5%chance

3105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

914

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

51%chance

759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

143

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