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Top stories

Big Tech’s ‘Reverse Acquihires’ Drain AI Startups of Talent

Authors

16

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Japan Times

Will the Bank of Japan have a negative interest rate again before the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 5:26 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.23%chance

122249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3137

319

Will Trump threaten to cancel AUKUS before 2029?

Feb 7, 8:18 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

65.96%chance

91972

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1392

718

Will a human walk on Mars before we get a cure for cancer?

Feb 3, 7:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

68.25%chance

241825

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

924

Will we have a terrestrial space elevator by 2085?

Aug 29, 8:39 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

15.04%chance

231268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1067

965

Will Japan no longer be a developed country by 2050?

Aug 27, 2:11 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

10.34%chance

151222

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

710

Will Russia rejoin G7/G8 before EOY 2050?

Jun 12, 3:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

46.5%chance

15800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

932

will my taiwanese grandma (86) pass away before china invades taiwan?

Feb 26, 12:46 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

62.33%chance

6535

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1286

777

Will Japan gain de facto control of Shikotan island (one of the Kuril islands) from Russia before 2031?

Jan 5, 11:13 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.01%chance

13414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1016

840

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?

Apr 17, 7:54 PMDec 14, 12:00 PM

72%chance

14346

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

949

Will I publish more Substack articles in 2026 than in 2025?

Jan 10, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54%chance

7236

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1084

923

Will life expectancy in any prefectures of Japan reach 90 years before end of 2040?

May 30, 12:31 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

54.5%chance

3105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

914

Will the top public OpenAI assistant rate China as more military powerful than the US in 2020?

May 27, 5:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.97%chance

242

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

88

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