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Prediction markets for Judge

Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most positively impactful term in the last 68 years?

Nov 9, 7:16 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

8.27%chance

125474759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3330

300

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.25%chance

183266085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17639

7122

If Elon Musk does something as a result of his AI angst by 2025, will Eliezer Yudkowsky judge it to be a positive or neutral initiative (as opposed to negative)?

Feb 26, 6:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.12%chance

17366341

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8877

3516

Will a judge throw out X vs. GARM?

Aug 8, 5:50 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

50.46%chance

7635026

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10102

9898

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Apr 28, 7:29 PMApr 29, 7:28 PM

39.18%chance

207516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12458

8027

Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most damaging term in the last 68 years?

Jan 8, 4:43 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

68.15%chance

366885

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1463

684

If someone launches a competitor to Manifold, will I judge it to have been at least as successful two years later?

Oct 21, 5:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.66%chance

251949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1129

936

Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028?

May 22, 6:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.35%chance

91586

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

916

Will Scott Alexander judge a specific candidate movie to resolve his 2028 AI movie market?

Dec 11, 12:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57.72%chance

361558

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

909

Will an AI system be judged to have killed a human on its own initiative and for no other purpose by 2030?

Mar 10, 10:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.68%chance

14516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

963

Will Donald Trump get more judges appointed in his second term than his first?

Nov 7, 2:42 AMJan 16, 7:59 AM

59.42%chance

5410

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1210

826

In 2028, will I use a chatbot that can win >25% of Turing test games (defined within) where I am the judge?

Mar 9, 7:59 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

35%chance

10338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

995

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