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Bond will be a man

Gunplay

Bond drives a car

Bond wears a suit/tuxedo

On screen fatalities

London will appear on screen

Car chase scene

Urban scene

Bond tells ≥1 joke

Blue-eyed Bond

Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"

World capital other than London appears on screen

A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.

A named character speaks in a language other than English

Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.

Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.

Bond drinks a martini

Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer

Opening action sequence

The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.

Gun Barrel Sequence

Sex scene

Q appears

Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently

Hacking electronics of some form

Bond uses explosives

The plot will be predominantly set in present day

Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts

The main theme song will be sung by a female

The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

Fatal-if-missed aerial jump

A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds

Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.

Asia will appear on screen

It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)

Someone goes through a pane of glass

A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent

"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned

Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)

Someone in the movie says the title

@HenriThunberg enjoys the film

It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die

The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.

>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release

The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.

Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall

South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen

The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.

Bond rides a motorcycle

>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release

Critics will say it's a return to classic bond

A sniper rifle is fired

At least a portion filmed in Canada

There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting

Bond wields a Walther PPK

Interracial sex scene

Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)

Jungle / forest scene

Bond flys an aircraft

James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government

Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.

Casino game scene

Bond parachutes

It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)

Bond wears shorts

Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present

>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release

Arctic scene

Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing

Bond gets slapped

M will be played by Ralph Fiennes

Prison/jail scene

Black market trafficking

A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it

Someone climbs around on the outside of a building

Released in 2028

Skydiving

The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.

A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)

Bond licks something

Bond and a pond shown on screen together

someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)

Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)

Bond slaps someone

A scene shows James Bond naked

Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth

Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)

Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.

There will be a voiced character that is an AI

Bond rides a bicycle

Torture

James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.

Bond receives a gunshot wound

A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens

Wilhelm scream

Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)

The title will refer to life and/or death

@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand

Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack

Bond drives a boat

A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne

Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)

James Bond plays poker

Bond commits arson

Oral sex

Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar

Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen

Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time

Bond has facial hair

Terrorists

US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)

Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case

A safe is cracked (any means possible)

Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen

Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)

Desert scene

The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)

A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot

Ski chase scene

Drug use

Someone/something is x-rayed

Thunderstorm

Dessert scene

An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)

President of the United States is mentioned

IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...

Robots

Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail

Death of a Bond love interest

It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)

Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick

Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)

There will be a promotional event in Fortnite

Bond wears a mask

Sharks

Cocaine or caviar appears on screen

Bond will be in a submarine

James Bond plays baccarat

Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses

Cryptocurrency is referenced

Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage

Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet

Bond is LQBTQ+

Bond rides an animal

James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't

Main villain speaks Russian on screen

Bond has a disability

Nazis (neo- counts)

Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage

Mexico is shown on screen

Jetpack

The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)

An EMP device plays a central role.

Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned

At least one named character below 18 years old

Orgy

Canada is shown on screen

Will feature something that can turn invisible

A hamburger appears on screen

Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen

Underwater combat

Bond goes to space

The word "fuck" is said more than once.

With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖

Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)

Bond is blond

Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone

Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)

Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift

A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)

Assplay

Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)

Bond plays Russian roulette

Bond uses a VR headset

Bond has a neck tattoo

Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond

The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.

Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.

fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name

A pinball machine will appear.

Gay sex scene

Pirates

Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene

Emilia Clarke portrays a character

A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"

Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)

Theme song is performed by The Weeknd

San Francisco is shown on screen

Pegging

Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)

Horse cock on screen (flaccid)

Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine

Satanism

Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz

A clocks shows the time 4:20

It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.

Feature Nightcore music

Supernatural entities

There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American

ChatGPT is referenced by any character

Bond uses chopsticks

Released in 2026

Nuclear explosion

Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)

Any character says the word "anime"

Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)

Vampires

Bond vapes

Bond won't be Caucasian

The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.

Bond dies

Scat play

Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)

Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme

Horse cock on screen (erect)

Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.

Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).

The handkerchief code is a major plot element

James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."

Bond is vegan

The fourth wall is broken

It will be directed by a woman

Bond plays League of Legends

Destiny appears on screen

Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”

Dragons

Dinosaurs

It will be directed by Christopher Nolan

NO

The existence of Dark Matter explains the anomaly in galaxy rotation curves (85%)

COVID-19 was natural in origin (80%).

The Lost Colony of Roanoke colonists have living decedents (55%)

The Mar Saba letter discovered by Morton Smith and containing excerpts from the "Secret Gospel of Mark" is a modern forgery (25%)

D.B. Cooper survived his parachute jump and escaped (30%)

The Hubble Tension can be resolved without new physics or changes to cosmological models (55%)

JonBenét Ramsey was killed by a member of her family (10%)

Lizzie Borden killed her parents (10%)

Aaron Kosminski was Jack the Ripper (35%)

Fingerprint

Harp

Shovel

Trombone

Leafless Tree

Splatter

Root Vegetable

Face with Bags Under Eyes

Ballet shoes

Food Cart

Origami/Paper Crane

Bowl of Blended Soup / Smooth Soup (NOT POT OF FOOD or RAMEN)

Pepper shaker

stained glass window

Armadillo

Candy Cane

Hot Air Balloon

Triceratops

Toucan

Vulture

Windmill

Seahorse

Tumbleweed

Chainsaw

Mime

Gnome

cotton candy

Seatbelt

Gull

Quintuple jump landed in figure skating competition

Shot put thrown >24.00 meters

15+ balls juggled successfully

110+ mph fastball thrown in professional baseball game

Stone skipped 89+ times

90+ yard field goal kicked in American football

Quintuple corkscrew landed in tricking

>60 kilometers cycled in one hour

100 meter dash completed in <9.00 seconds

YES

Isaac likes experimenting

You'd say you're more of a dog person than a cat person

You've been in a desert once

You regret ever making WvM (feel free to n/a if you'd rather not say)

You have ever looked through list of a Manifold user's bets to determine their position on some question

You've been vegetarian for >1 continuous year

(if you're not married) you've thought about marrying your current partner (if you're in a relationship)

You like listening to violin more than you like listening to piano

You're older than me (I'm 23)

you consider your partner to be your best friend as well

You're younger than 30

You think it's fine for minors to date adults

You consider yourself part of the rationality sphere

You think of yourself as a dog person more than a cat person

You seem to enjoy indie stuff more than the average person does

you've defected on some sort of deal you made with another person

The first book you remember reading in your life has an animal as its main character

You tend to wear the same outfit every day.

You think the effective altruism philosophy is good but the community overall is ineffective in implementing that philosophy

You've spent a day in which you read a (single) book (or similar) for 10+ hrs

You're an effective altruist

You are qorrenqial

You've read the CFAR Handbook

You've held a gun in your hands before

You've fired a gun at a target before

You've jumped out of a plane

You have attended some program or camp organised by MIRI

You've knowingly misresolved a market once even though you didn't get called out for it

You've been to a nightclub

You've passed out from drinking alcohol

You like to eat out more than you like to cook and eat

You've worked with LED strip lights

You've wondered what it'd be like to have a different name

*You* have more than 6 stuffed animals

You know >4 programming langauges

You know >= 3 natural languages (in at least one of reading, speaking, or hearing understanding)

You've felt desires to purchase a car with mana

You have a political belief that'd cause at least one close friend to cut ties if they knew about it

You wish you spent significantly less time on Manifold

You sleep more during 7am->7pm hours than during 7pm->7am hours

You prefer if these answers start with "You" than with "isaac"

You feel you're the smartest member of your close family (mother, father, siblings)

You have thought about shooting lasers from your eyes at traffic lights

You have once made a joke about your name's similarity with Martin Luther King Jr.

You think the effective altruism community is ineffective at PR and image management

YES

NO

YES

Lead author of the series is a man

There are threats in the universe that can destroy the planet/realm the main character lives on that they have to fight against

Has at least 6 animated episodes of an accompanying anime or OVA

published in Shonen Jump

Some sort of magic is used

Cute animal sidekick to the main character or their allies

Guns exist in the universe

'power of friendship' trope

'enemies to Lovers' trope

One of the top 2 main characters has green hair

'Time Travel' trope or a part of the key storyline

Set in the future

Psychic powers are used by an enemy or antihero character

Cloning technology exists in the universe

Has had a related skin in fortnite

NO