Just Group News

Predictle / any forecasting game

Charity lottery

User calibration

Better Explore page / Feed

Subscription plan

Interest on all positions

Merch store

Improved liquidity handling

Market Creator can approve/deny/vet user submitted answers to their markets

interesting comment notifications

Space the "X" and "Add" buttons farther apart on M.C./Set markets (or change the UI for this altogether)

Early resolve NO for sum-to-1 multi-choice options

UI/UX changes that favor limit orders

Negative risk conversion

First class N/A resolution

Market comment section search/filter

finer resolution betting near 0%/100%

Re-implement "Unlinked Multiple Choice" as "A bunch of full binary markets that happen to be displayed on the same page"

Groups / communities

An update to the loans / margin / capitalization system that Evan Actually Likes

Any A/B tested UI change

Non third-party sign in

Private manifold instances

Clans

Poker

Parlays

Lee Harvey Oswald (acting alone)

CIA

Other US government agency or official

Cuban exiles (anti-Castro)

Mafia

Other

Cuban government

KGB / Soviets

LBJ

US military

FBI

Other US leftwing group

Other US rightwing group

US company

Foreign company

Mossad / Israeli government

Other foreign government

Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs.

There was an alignment breakthrough allowing humanity to successfully build an aligned AI.

One person (or a small group) takes over the world and acts as a benevolent dictator.

Multiple competing AIs form a stable equilibrium keeping each other in check.

At a sufficient level of intelligence, goals converge towards not wanting to harm other creatures/intelligences.

There's a fundamental limit to intelligence that isn't much higher than human level.

High intelligence isn't enough to take over the world on its own, so the AI needs to work with humanity in order to effectively pursue its own goals.

Gauss

Archimedes

Euler

@121

Other

Von Neumann

Alexander Grothendieck

Newton

Kurt Gödel

David Hilbert

Augustin-Louis Cauchy

Pythagoras

Euclid (of Geometry)

Galois (died at 20 fighting for a girl he loved)

Erdos (on amphetamines)

Alonzo Chuch (lambda calculus)

Matt Damon (of Good Will Hunting)

Ramanujan

Poincare

Finkelstein (of the levi finkelstein conjecture)

Mandelbrot (The B in Benoit B Mandelbrot is Benoit B Mandelbrot)

Trick question; there are no mathematicians.

Idk, your mom seemed pretty good at multiplying last night

sixtynine, you filthy casuals

David A. Cox (Cox-Zucker machine)

The solver of the Riemann Hypothesis

Ludwig Wittgenstein

John Conway (group theory, among others)

the unknown ancient egyptian who invented zero

Descartes

Leibniz

Bourbaki

Laplace

@Mira

Georg Cantor

Frank Ramsey

Fermat

Emmy Noether

Ada Lovelace

.

p

Terry Tao

DottedCalculator

GPT8

Riemann

Claude Shannon

God

Alan Turing

Grigori Perelman

Olga Ladyzhenskaya

Weyl, Weyl

John Gabriel

“Manifold pro” or similar status w perks

Profile hats

Profile pic borders

Profile Hovercard borders

Leverage (loan) rate increases

Bonus streak forgiveness / freezes

Coolfold's Jester hat

Top hat

Crystal ball icon on pfp

Wizard hat

Cat ears

Stonks arrow (over pfp)

Monocle

Halo

Devil horns

Bull/Bear horns/ears

Cosmetic badges

Some kind of Whale design on pfp, or on hovercard, gated behind 1m all-time volume

Consumable market decorations

Additional site themes

A unique hat that can only be owned by one person but can be stolen

Fire-themed hovercard (requires Streak >100days to buy)

Profile page layout customization

Spoiler mode (hide current probabilities)

trader bonus multiplier

MtG mana color symbols

Create a clan / community / group

Consumable item that lets you highlight a comment

Custom league cohort packs for inviting friends to compete

Extra predictle sets

Access to detailed Predictle stats (eg of past games, or of other players' performance)

Boost discounts (limited purchase, e.g. 2/ mo)

Discord perks

YES

Sexism and racism, among other forms of prejudice, are responsible for worse health outcomes, and it’s not overly dramatic for people to treat those issues as public health/safety concerns.

Prediction markets are good

Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated

[*] ...and things will improve in the future

Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)

We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.

The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.

The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.

Authoritarian populism is bad actually

Prolonged school closures because of COVID were socially devastating.

Nuclear power is by far the best solution to climate change. [N]

Most organized religion are false

The Many Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics

Humans have a responsibility to figure out what if anything we can do about wildlife suffering.

Pineapple pizza tastes good

First-past-the-post electoral systems are not merely flawed but outright less democratic than proportional or preferential alternatives

Liberal-democracy is good actually

Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries

Peeing in the shower is good and everyone should do it

It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.

We need a bigger welfare state than we have now.

Many amphetamines and psychedelics have tremendous therapeutic value when guided by an established practitioner.

The proliferation of microplastics will be viewed as more harmful to the environment than burning fossil fuels, in the long term

Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.

Metaculus will take over Manifold in more serious topics, and Manifold will be known as the "unserious" prediction market site

American agents are in the highest positions in government for more than half the world.

We should give every American food stamps, in a fixed dollar amount, with no means testing or work requirements or disqualification for criminal convictions.

Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.

Dreams analysis is a legitimate means of gaining personal insight.

Given what we know about the social and health effects of being fired, even if abolishing at will employment has efficiency costs it is likely worth it.

Mobile UX will be a key explaining factor in explaining the stories of Manifold and Metaculus.

The overall state of the world is pretty good... [*]

If a developed nation moves from democratic to authoritarian government today, it should be expected to end up poorer, weaker, sicker, and stupider.

California is wildly overrated.

Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.

The United States doesn't need a strong third party.

Political libertarianism

Racial Colorblindness is the only way to defeat racism

People will look back on using animal products as a moral disgrace on the level of chattel slavery.

There's a reasonable chance of a militant green/communist movement that gains popular support in the coming decade.

[N], and to the extent climate activists are promoting other kinds of solutions, they are actively making the situation worse by diverting attention and resources from nuclear power.

Being a billionaire is morally wrong.

Eating meat is morally wrong in most cases.

You should bet NO on this option

The Windows kernel is better than Linux; it’s just all the bloat piled on top that makes it worse

White people are the least racist of any racial group

Technology is not making our lives easier or more fulfilling.

COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.

Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites

Some people have genuine psychic capabilities

God is evil

A sandwich is a type of hot dog

Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development.

Astrology is a legitimate means of gaining personal insight.

It's acceptable for our systems of punishment to be retributive in part

Mereological nihilism (composite objects don't exist)

China not having real democracy does more good than harm

AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns

Governments should not support parents for having children that they cannot take care of

Reincarnation is a real phenomenon

Dentistry is mostly wasted effort.

Moral Hazard isn’t real, and all the purported instances of it can be chalked up to coincidence or confounding variables

Donald Trump would have been a better president than Joe Biden

Mass surveillance (security cameras everywhere) has more positives than negatives

Future generations will say that on balance the world reacted appropriately after learning that fossil fuels cause climate change. That the balance between addressing the problem and slowing economies was just about right.

The next American moon landing will be faked

SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud

Humans don't have free will.

AI art is better than human art

Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes

Communism just wasn't implemented well, next time it will work

The first American moon landing was faked

The human race should voluntarily choose to go extinct via nonviolent means (antinatalism).

LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025

NO

The Democrat party has directly asked mainstream media to promote or repress a news story, and they followed (Only counting incidents in or after 2015)

TikTok is controlled by the Chinese government

Someone working for a US intelligence agency was a regular user of Manifold before this option was made

The culture war has been intentionally amplified by the wealthy to distract from class conflict

The US has spies working in the North Korean government

"The Agency" on Manifold was known to the whole Manifold staff team before it started

The idea of aliens is used by the US to distract people from secret military projects

The Republican party has been making the illegal immigrant problem worse during 2020-2024 to blame it on Joe Biden during election season

The Premier League delayed punishing Manchester City for breaking FFP regulations to protect its own self-interests

The Chinese government planned their Wuhan lockdowns to protect their own country from Covid-19 but spread it to other countries

Mattress Firm is a money laundering front

The UK did Nordstream

The earth and/or universe was created by a God, deity, supernatural being, or some other sentient/conscious entity in the beginning

Creationism (second try): The earth and/or universe was INTENTIONALLY created and designed by an INDIVIDUAL god or deity at the VERY BEGINNING of its existence

The US created Covid-19 in a lab in China

The CIA systematically edits Wikipedia articles to present the US in a better light

Putin was threatened by a member of his cabinet to invade Ukraine

John Barnett (Boeing whistleblower) was assassinated

COVID-19 vaccines permanently change one's DNA or genome

Creationism (third try): Genesis 1 prima facie is an accurate description of the earth and/or universe's origins

Vladimir Putin died in 2014 and was secretly replaced by a body double

In the Tucker & Carlson interview, the dubbed voice of Putin in english is not actually saying what Putin is saying, but instead something completely different

The 2024 Donald Trump assassination attempt was a hoax or setup

COVID-19 vaccine is fatal or lethal in the long term

Phantom Time Hypothesis: A substantial portion of the Middle Ages was made up and never happened

There is a firmament, dome, or ceiling above the earth

Viruses/viral particles don't actually exist

A group of giant people known as the Nephilim once inhabited the earth and cut down the colossal trees, leaving stumps that the general public understands as geological formations like Devils Tower in Wyoming and Giant’s Causeway in Ireland

Palantir

Other

OpenAI

Tesla

Lockheed Martin

Boeing

Facebook

Mistral AI

Shield AI

Deepmind

Inflection

Alibaba Group

EluetherAI

Waymo

Raytheon Technologies

Anthropic

Meta

State Administration Council or successor military junta

National Unity Government in exile (Aung San Suu Kyi)

A majority nondemocrtic coalition of ethnic armed groups

Other

A majority democratic coalition of ethnic armed groups

Completion (Status Quo): Finishes term; no major political victories or failures occur.

Completion + Political Prosecution: Finishes term and a high-profile political opponent is convicted or imprisoned before January 1, 2030.

Completion + Charter Change (Cha-Cha): Finishes term and the Constitution is successfully amended/ratified.

Completion + Popularity Surge: Finishes term and his final net approval rating is above 60%.

Completion + Geopolitical Victory: Finishes term and achieves a formal, diplomatic, or legal victory in the West Philippine Sea.

Completion + Succession Path: Finishes term and a key member of the Marcos-Romualdez bloc is elected to the Vice Presidency or Senate Presidency by June 30, 2028.

Completion + External War/Victory: Finishes term and successfully navigates a short, decisive external conflict, resulting in a clear geopolitical victory by June 2028.

Completion + Internal Stabilization: Finishes term and achieves a definitive peace agreement or complete military defeat of all major internal insurgency groups by June 2028.

Completion + AI Governance Success: Finishes term and the Philippines becomes an internationally recognized leader in AI governance or ethical adoption, significantly attracting foreign investment by June 2028.

Completion + AI Economic Boom: Finishes term and the economic boost from AI integration (as a percentage of GDP growth) demonstrably meets or exceeds the most optimistic projections (e.g., $92 Billion estimate) by the end of his term.

Removal by Impeachment (Corruption): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Graft and Corruption.

Removal by Impeachment (Betrayal of Trust): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Betrayal of Public Trust.

Removal by People Power / Junta: Term ends due to a successful People Power mobilization or a military coup/junta.

Removal by Supreme Court: Term ends via a Supreme Court ruling (e.g., a successful quo warranto petition) that invalidates his election or eligibility.

Removal by Death, Disability, or Resignation: Term ends due to health reasons or voluntary resignation.

Removal by Secession / Government Collapse: Term is rendered invalid due to the successful secession of a major region (e.g., Mindanao).

Removal by External War/Loss: Term ends early due to a major external conflict (e.g., WPS conflict) that leads to significant political destabilization and his removal.

Removal by Internal War/Chaos: Term ends early due to a major internal civil conflict or renewed, large-scale insurgency.

Removal by AI Disinformation Crisis: Term ends early due to a widespread, uncontained AI-driven disinformation crisis (e.g., deepfake scandals) that completely erodes public trust and leads to institutional failure and early removal.

Removal by AI Job Disruption: Term ends early due to massive, immediate job displacement from rapid AI automation, leading to widespread social unrest, economic collapse, and his removal.

Extension by Con-Ass: 8-Year Term Congress (Con-Ass) amends the Constitution to change the single 6-year term to a single 8-year term.

Extension by Con-Con: Parliamentary Shift Constitutional Convention changes the system to Parliamentary, making the incumbent Prime Minister with a flexible term.

Extension by Federalism Transitional Clause: A new Federal Constitution is passed, with a clause designating the incumbent as the Transitional President for two additional years.

Extension by SC Rules on Term Interruption: The Supreme Court rules that the current term was interrupted by a crisis, legally restarting the 6-year clock.

Extension by Legislative Deferment of Polls: Congress passes a simple law postponing the 2028 election due to logistics or calamity.

Extension by Emergency Declaration: The President declares a severe National Emergency (non-war) and Congress concurs, suspending the election.

Extension by New Statutory Office Creation: Congress creates a powerful new, non-constitutional role (e.g., Chief Development Officer) with a long statutory term for the incumbent.

Extension by Succession Incapacit Legal/political chaos incapacitates all legal successors (VP, etc.), forcing the incumbent to hold over.

Extension by Election Invalidation: A court ruling or technicality voids the 2028 election, forcing the incumbent to remain until a valid re-run.

Extension by Cabinet Appointment: The incumbent resigns, the successor is sworn in, and immediately appoints the former President to a powerful, unelected executive post that maintains command.