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Prediction markets for Justice

Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?

Jan 3, 7:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.94%chance

27874614

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1885

1080

Will the next Supreme Court justice be appointed by a Democrat?

Jul 22, 12:56 PMDec 2, 5:59 AM

8.61%chance

9741510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3135

225

If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?

Mar 10, 12:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.58%chance

11730224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10621

5761

Will Donald Trump appoint at least 2 Supreme Court Justices during his second term?

Nov 7, 6:15 PMJan 20, 8:59 PM

36.49%chance

424923

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1319

758

Who will the next SCOTUS Justice to leave the court be?

Nov 6, 10:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

384481

OptionProbability

Clarence Thomas

Samuel Alito

Sonia Sotomayor

John Roberts

Brett Kavanaugh

Elena Kagan

Neil Gorsuch

Ketanji Brown Jackson

Amy Coney Barrett

A Justice not yet seated

39

36

13

6

2

1

1

1

0

0

Will the Justice Department win its antitrust suit against Google?

Jan 24, 6:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.92%chance

221358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1136

916

Will the first openly LGBTQIA+ SCOTUS Justice be appointed before 2040?

Jul 3, 11:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.13%chance

181101

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1191

714

Will a liberal justice leave the Supreme Court during Trump's presidential term?

Jan 29, 8:51 PMJan 21, 5:59 AM

28.59%chance

151049

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1581

633

Will Clarence Thomas break the record for longest tenured US Supreme Court Justice?

Nov 12, 2:58 AMMay 20, 4:00 PM

50.96%chance

81041

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

981

Will the next Chief Justice of the United States be a woman?

Mar 21, 1:27 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

40.3%chance

17550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1109

913

Will GPT5 be able to accurately generate a list of the 30 oldest US Supreme Court justices?

Nov 7, 11:13 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.98%chance

4525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1493

670

Will the next Supreme Court justice have a Catholic background?

Jul 2, 2:14 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

39.07%chance

5265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1249

801

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