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Prediction markets for Key

Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?

Mar 26, 7:52 PMMar 27, 6:59 AM

95.33%chance

9910950

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2946

41

Will Allan Lichtman (creator of the 13 Keys) correctly predict the 2028 election?

Oct 14, 12:17 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM

68.56%chance

187360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1477

677

Will we "lose public key cryptography" by EoY 2028?

Oct 8, 7:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.76%chance

606165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2504

399

Will we discover superconductivity in biological systems as key part of memory, perception or language, before 2040?

Aug 2, 2:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.62%chance

224037

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1437

935

By 2034, will most Americans leave the house with only their phones (no wallet or keys)?

Apr 3, 10:02 PMApr 11, 3:59 AM

20.1%chance

372468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1503

804

Will a replacement bridge for Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore be opened to traffic within 10 years of destruction?

Mar 29, 3:08 PMMar 28, 3:59 AM

82.68%chance

392256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3072

1633

Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?

Nov 3, 6:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.43%chance

291989

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1206

883

Will the New York Times positively cover Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys prediction in 2028?

Sep 5, 7:19 PMNov 13, 7:59 AM

22.88%chance

71550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1836

545

Will Lula be a key actor in the peace between Ukraine and Russia?

Feb 23, 5:28 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

4.98%chance

161505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2046

896

[Humanoid Bots] Will the USA (or China) be the key player?

Mar 6, 10:42 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

29.14%chance

181069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1683

407

Will any California bridges receive additional physical protection due to the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse?

Mar 28, 5:05 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

9.65%chance

6965

OptionVotes

YES

NO

426

53

What will be the final cost of the Francis Scott Key bridge replacement (in 2024 $millions)

Mar 30, 3:47 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

4492

OptionProbability

At least 8000 and less than 16000

At least 4000 and less than 8000

At least 2000 and less than 4000

At least 16000

At least 1000 and less than 2000

At least 500 and less than 1000

Less than 500

44

39

6

5

3

2

1

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