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Prediction markets for Kickstarter

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

728703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2438

1224

Will AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives?

Jan 26, 9:59 AMJan 2, 10:59 PM

715068

OptionProbability

In 2030 or earlier

In 2029 or earlier

In 2028 or earlier

In 2027 or earlier

In 2026 or earlier

In 2025 or earlier

In 2024

71

62

54

40

25

8

0

Will LoveFrom + OpenAI ship a consumer product in 2025

Sep 25, 3:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.39%chance

73567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4188

239

Will Worldcoin hit 100$ and if yes when will it happen ?

Dec 17, 7:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

192434

OptionProbability

No never

Yes by 2030

Yes by 2028

Yes by 2025

68

43

41

1

Will any of destiny current orbiters grow their stream around the size of vaush/Hasan?

Jan 11, 7:00 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

26.78%chance

14376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

985

When will the LOOPA by ferluht Kickstarter be available?

Aug 23, 12:51 PMJan 1, 1:44 PM

2280

OptionProbability

Before September 30, 2025

October 2025

November 2025

December 2025

76

50

50

50

Will "The Wayward Realms" be released as Early Access by EOY 2025?

Jun 6, 4:19 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10%chance

1200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

What tier will Zvi rank Free Stars: Children of Infinity (aka the real Star Control 3)

May 9, 5:01 PMDec 17, 4:59 AM

456

OptionProbability

Tier 2 (Worth It)

Tier 3 (Good)

Tier 1 (Must Play)

Game never releases or unavailable at deadline

Tier 4 (Playable)

Tier 5 (We Don't Talk about Bruno)

40

16

13

12

10

10

Will Hex Heroes be released on any platform before 2030?

Dec 26, 12:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

34.76%chance

337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137

73

Kickstarting futarchy-like systems in liberal democracies: using Manifold to define/evaluate effective roadmaps

Jan 23, 4:18 PM

00

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