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Prediction markets for Kickstarter

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

728703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2438

1224

Will AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives?

Jan 26, 9:59 AMJan 2, 10:59 PM

714966

OptionProbability

In 2030 or earlier

In 2029 or earlier

In 2028 or earlier

In 2027 or earlier

In 2026 or earlier

In 2025 or earlier

In 2024

71

62

54

45

29

8

0

Will LoveFrom + OpenAI ship a consumer product in 2025

Sep 25, 3:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.67%chance

61742

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2513

398

Will Worldcoin hit 100$ and if yes when will it happen ?

Dec 17, 7:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

181634

OptionProbability

No never

Yes by 2030

Yes by 2028

Yes by 2025

68

43

41

5

Prop Bets on Massimo's Game

Apr 12, 7:24 PMJan 1, 8:20 PM

4522

OptionProbability

Demo releases by EOY 2025

has amazing tree branches simulation

Released by EOY 2027

Makes at least $1m USD by EOY 2028 (N/A if not released by EOY 2027)

Demo releases by end of August

Gets at least $100k USD in funding from Kickstarter

71

60

48

48

45

24

Will any of destiny current orbiters grow their stream around the size of vaush/Hasan?

Jan 11, 7:00 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

26.49%chance

13372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1031

981

What tier will Zvi rank Free Stars: Children of Infinity (aka the real Star Control 3)

May 9, 5:01 PMDec 17, 4:59 AM

456

OptionProbability

Tier 2 (Worth It)

Tier 3 (Good)

Tier 1 (Must Play)

Game never releases or unavailable at deadline

Tier 4 (Playable)

Tier 5 (We Don't Talk about Bruno)

40

16

13

12

10

10

Will Hex Heroes be released on any platform before 2030?

Dec 26, 12:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

34.76%chance

337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137

73

Will the GC Ultimate Kickstarter be shut down by Nintendo before the end of 2025?

Aug 27, 4:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.39%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will the GC Ultimate Kickstarter reach its goal and ship their first batch of preorder units by the end of 2025?

Aug 27, 4:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.27%chance

17

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

94

Will "The Wayward Realms" be released as Early Access by EOY 2025?

Jun 6, 4:19 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Kickstarting futarchy-like systems in liberal democracies: using Manifold to define/evaluate effective roadmaps

Jan 23, 4:18 PM

00

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