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Prediction markets for Kickstarter

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.02%chance

748854

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2589

1201

Will AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives?

Jan 26, 9:59 AMJan 2, 10:59 PM

817298

OptionProbability

In 2030 or earlier

In 2029 or earlier

In 2028 or earlier

In 2027 or earlier

In 2026 or earlier

In 2024

In 2025 or earlier

51

47

36

34

6

0

0

Will Worldcoin hit 100$ and if yes when will it happen ?

Dec 17, 7:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

203988

OptionProbability

No never

Yes by 2030

Yes by 2028

Yes by 2025

68

7

5

2

Will any of destiny current orbiters grow their stream around the size of vaush/Hasan?

Jan 11, 7:00 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

26.78%chance

14376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

985

When will the Exalted 3e RPG supplement 'Sidereals: Agents of Heaven' be released?

Aug 15, 5:13 PMJan 29, 7:59 AM

3113

OptionProbability

Jul-Dec 2027

Jan-Jun 2027

Jan-Jun 2028

Jul-Dec 2028

Jan-Jun 2029

Aug-Dec 2026

Jul-Dec 2029

Jan-Jun 2030

Jul-Dec 2030

23

18

10

10

10

9

7

7

7

Will "Conditional Kickstarter for the "Don't Build ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 3, 8:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.64%chance

2107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

984

What tier will Zvi rank Free Stars: Children of Infinity (aka the real Star Control 3)

May 9, 5:01 PMDec 17, 4:59 AM

456

OptionProbability

Tier 2 (Worth It)

Tier 3 (Good)

Tier 1 (Must Play)

Game never releases or unavailable at deadline

Tier 4 (Playable)

Tier 5 (We Don't Talk about Bruno)

40

16

13

12

10

10

Will Hex Heroes be released on any platform before 2030?

Dec 26, 12:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

34.76%chance

337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137

73

When will I get my Virpil flight yoke?

Dec 17, 8:15 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

Jan-Feb 2026

Mar-Apr 2026

May-Jun 2026

Jul-Aug 2026

Sep-Oct 2026

Nov-Dec 2026

17

17

17

17

17

17

Kickstarting futarchy-like systems in liberal democracies: using Manifold to define/evaluate effective roadmaps

Jan 23, 4:18 PM

00

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