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Prediction markets for Kill Security

Will Google provide security and Android version updates for the Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro until October 2030?

Oct 7, 5:31 AMOct 1, 1:59 PM

79.26%chance

3812236

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1764

639

Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies

Mar 2, 4:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.3%chance

2711498

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4225

237

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Nov 18, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

497096

OptionProbability

Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)

An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task

Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons

Other (10m+ deaths)

Worldwide Pandemic

350+ million climate-displaced persons annually

US Treasury payment default or missed obligation

62

32

31

14

12

10

8

will trump be assasinated in US?

Mar 7, 1:13 AMDec 31, 1:12 AM

5.24%chance

355565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

425

24

Will Donald Trump be assassinated before the end of his presidency?

Apr 5, 1:52 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

7.83%chance

473144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

343

29

Will the current wave of Iranian protests be suppressed by the end of 2026?

Jan 4, 10:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.93%chance

291557

OptionVotes

NO

YES

363

28

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

30.41%chance

221229

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

1030

Will the US have state-sanctioned death squads by Jan 20th 2029?

Apr 27, 1:34 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

23.94%chance

221036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

56

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Jan 13, 1:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6.57%chance

311019

OptionVotes

YES

NO

377

27

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.17%chance

16992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

977

Will the US deploy ground groups to Iran by…?

Mar 5, 8:18 AMDec 31, 8:17 AM

11876

OptionProbability

Before Dec 2026

Before Oct 2026

Before Nov 2026

Before Aug 2026

Before Sep 2026

Before Jul 2026

Before May 2026

Before Jun 2026

Before Apr 2026

39

35

35

18

13

7

5

5

2

Before December 31, 2026, will an ICE agent kill another American citizen?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:27 PM

19.34%chance

11334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

185

66

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