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Prediction markets for Kill Security

Is establishing a truth economy that produces more than 50% of the global GDP before AI fooms critical to survival?

May 18, 4:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.1%chance

7636038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1413

731

Will Google provide security and Android version updates for the Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro until October 2030?

Oct 7, 5:31 AMOct 1, 1:59 PM

74%chance

3711541

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1487

723

ICE kills another US citizen by end of February 2026

Jan 28, 10:13 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

18.96%chance

13111224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1948

522

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Nov 18, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

486932

OptionProbability

Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)

Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons

An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task

Other (10m+ deaths)

350+ million climate-displaced persons annually

US Treasury payment default or missed obligation

Worldwide Pandemic

55

37

32

14

10

8

5

Will fatal ICE shooting in the US occur again before March 2026?

Jan 26, 2:31 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

61.27%chance

311396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

627

535

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

34.36%chance

201053

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1126

908

Would Trump get a second assassination attempt 2026

Jan 28, 9:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27%chance

6699

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1218

24

When will the Iranian protests end?

Jan 15, 9:56 PMFeb 17, 2:59 AM

9353

OptionProbability

Before January 1, 2027

Before April 1, 2026

Before July 1, 2026

Before March 1, 2026

Before February 15, 2026

Before February 1, 2026

89

85

85

71

43

21

The End of the Russia–Ukraine War in 2026

Jan 30, 11:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7279

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before Oct 2026

Before Dec 2026

Before Jun 2026

Before Aug 2026

Before Apr 2026

Before Feb 2026

36

28

28

24

24

12

4

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2030?

Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.38%chance

9226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

191

105

Will Iranian protest successfully over Ali Khamenei's term before 1st march

Jan 14, 11:34 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

13.17%chance

7178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

257

39

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Jan 13, 1:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

20.73%chance

6149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

196

51

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