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Prediction markets for Kill Security

Will Google provide security and Android version updates for the Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro until October 2030?

Oct 7, 5:31 AMOct 1, 1:59 PM

81.86%chance

3812057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1943

596

Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies

Mar 2, 4:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.72%chance

2710998

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3725

268

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Nov 18, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

497048

OptionProbability

Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)

Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons

An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task

Other (10m+ deaths)

Worldwide Pandemic

350+ million climate-displaced persons annually

US Treasury payment default or missed obligation

57

34

32

14

12

10

8

will trump be assasinated in US?

Mar 7, 1:13 AMDec 31, 1:12 AM

5.48%chance

334501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

415

24

Will Donald Trump be assassinated before the end of his presidency?

Apr 5, 1:52 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

7.83%chance

473144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

343

29

Will the current wave of Iranian protests be suppressed by the end of 2026?

Jan 4, 10:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.13%chance

291546

OptionVotes

NO

YES

260

38

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

35.26%chance

201078

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

883

Will the US have state-sanctioned death squads by Jan 20th 2029?

Apr 27, 1:34 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

23.94%chance

221036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

56

Will the US deploy ground groups to Iran by…?

Mar 5, 8:18 AMDec 31, 8:17 AM

11876

OptionProbability

Before Dec 2026

Before Oct 2026

Before Nov 2026

Before Aug 2026

Before Sep 2026

Before Jul 2026

Before May 2026

Before Jun 2026

Before Apr 2026

39

35

35

18

13

7

5

5

2

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Jan 13, 1:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

10.48%chance

28869

OptionVotes

YES

NO

292

34

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.21%chance

14835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

943

Before December 31, 2026, will an ICE agent kill another American citizen?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:27 PM

38.02%chance

9200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

97

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