Kill Security News

Will Google provide security and Android version updates for the Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro until October 2030?

Oct 7, 5:31 AMOct 1, 1:59 PM

81.86%chance

3812057

OptionVotes

YES

1943

596

Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies

Mar 2, 4:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.72%chance

2710998

OptionVotes

YES

3725

268

Will Donald Trump be assassinated before the end of his presidency?

Apr 5, 1:52 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

12%chance

462098

OptionVotes

YES

271

Specific Events in the Iran War

Mar 2, 11:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

202003

OptionProbability

US/Israeli announce Iran navy annihilated. All surface ships bigger than 10 tons. Small subs also not counted

Regular opposition broadcasts hacking Iran TV 3 more times. Like the State TV/IRIB satellite hack.

A brigade or base commander in any city switches sides

Interim council fractures, or all current dead or one member defects publicly

One or more Town(s), city(s), declare as free of iran regime control for over 2 days

High Profile flips - 2+ named officers go on video via Starlink calling on units to stand down or defect.

100

Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026):

Mar 12, 3:08 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

191671

OptionProbability

Unyielding Islamic Regime

Deal with minimal concessions

Deal with major concessions

Military coup (Artesh)

Popular takeover

Balkanization/long civil war

Venezuela-style puppet state

Voluntary transition of power

will trump be assasinated in 2026

Feb 28, 8:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5%chance

181196

OptionVotes

YES

280

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

35.26%chance

201078

OptionVotes

YES

1139

883

When will the Iranian protests end?

Jan 15, 9:56 PMFeb 17, 2:59 AM

10906

OptionProbability

Before January 1, 2027

Before July 1, 2026

Before April 1, 2026

Before March 1, 2026

Before February 15, 2026

Before February 1, 2026

Will the US deploy ground groups to Iran by…?

Mar 5, 8:18 AMDec 31, 8:17 AM

11876

OptionProbability

Before Dec 2026

Before Oct 2026

Before Nov 2026

Before Aug 2026

Before Sep 2026

Before Jul 2026

Before May 2026

Before Jun 2026

Before Apr 2026

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Jan 13, 1:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

18.66%chance

26756

OptionVotes

YES

209

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

YES

1031

884

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2030?

Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

25.47%chance

11279

OptionVotes

YES

171

112

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Prediction markets for Kill Security

Prediction markets for Kill Security

Prediction markets for Kill Security

Will Google provide security and Android version updates for the Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro until October 2030?

Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies

Will Donald Trump be assassinated before the end of his presidency?

Specific Events in the Iran War

Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026):

will trump be assasinated in 2026

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

When will the Iranian protests end?

Will the US deploy ground groups to Iran by…?

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2030?

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