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Prediction markets for Kill Security

Will Google provide security and Android version updates for the Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro until October 2030?

Oct 7, 5:31 AMOct 1, 1:59 PM

73%chance

3711557

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1443

738

Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies

Mar 2, 4:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.49%chance

2710441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3282

305

Would Trump get a second assassination attempt 2026

Jan 28, 9:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

99.02%chance

237876

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4908

920

ICE agent murdered on duty by end of 2026?

Jan 24, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.25%chance

847545

OptionVotes

YES

NO

192

52

Will Donald Trump be assassinated before the end of his presidency?

Apr 5, 1:52 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

12%chance

422020

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

Will the current wave of Iranian protests be suppressed by the end of 2026?

Jan 4, 10:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.19%chance

281531

OptionVotes

NO

YES

250

40

Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026):

Mar 12, 3:08 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

181345

OptionProbability

Deal with minimal concessions

Unyielding Islamic Regime

Deal with major concessions

Balkanization/long civil war

Military coup (Artesh)

Popular takeover

Venezuela-style puppet state

Voluntary transition of power

43

36

8

6

3

3

1

1

will trump be assasinated in 2026

Feb 28, 8:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.45%chance

151089

OptionVotes

YES

NO

222

87

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

35.26%chance

201078

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

883

Will the US have state-sanctioned death squads by Jan 20th 2029?

Apr 27, 1:34 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

23.94%chance

221036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

56

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.32%chance

10544

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

784

Will the US deploy ground groups to Iran by…?

Mar 5, 8:18 AMDec 31, 8:17 AM

9345

OptionProbability

Before Dec 2026

Before Jul 2026

Before Aug 2026

Before Sep 2026

Before Jun 2026

Before Oct 2026

Before Nov 2026

Before May 2026

Before Apr 2026

83

77

77

77

76

76

76

74

25

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