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Kimi Moonshot News

September 2026 AI model releases

Aug 30, 8:15 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

6414612

OptionProbability

Claude Fable 5.x

GPT-5.7 or GPT-6

Claude Opus/Sonnet/Haiku 5.x

Muse Spark 1.x (or any Meta model)

Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash/Flash-Lite

Kimi K3.x (or any Moonshot AI model)

Minimax M3.x (or any Minimax model)

TML-Large (or any Thinking Machines model)

Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Pro

Deepseek V4.x Pro/Lite

100

100

100

100

100

64

43

18

11

9

Kimi Moonshot AI valuation on MNX (October 1st)

Aug 9, 10:39 PMOct 1, 7:00 AM

3211008

OptionProbability

Above $50B

Above $100B

Above $200B

Above $400B

92

46

11

5

Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?

Nov 27, 9:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

215995

OptionProbability

Moonshot (Kimi)

Baidu (Ernie)

OpenAI

Anthropic

Google

Alibaba (Qwen)

DeepSeek

Z.ai

Mistral

Thinking Machines Lab

Nvidia

Cohere (Command R+)

Reka AI

NexusFlow (Athene)

01 AI (Yi)

AI21 Labs (Jamba)

Safe Superintelligence / SSI

100

100

100

100

100

62

58

41

39

36

17

9

5

4

4

4

2

Kimi K3 Thinking METR 50% time horizon

Dec 13, 6:39 PMOct 10, 12:00 AM

124736

OptionProbability

Other

1.5h - 2h

2.5h - 3h

3h - 3.5h

4h - 4.5h

4.5h - 5h

<1h

1h - 1.5h

2h - 2.5h

3.5h - 4h

5h - 5.5h

84

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

Kimi K4 released in 2026?

Jul 25, 12:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.6%chance

134235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1905

525

Which model family will rule the LMSYS Arena in 2026?

Dec 28, 11:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

93332

OptionProbability

Claude (Anthropic)

GPT (OpenAI)

Gemini (Google)

Kimi (Moonshot)

DeepSeek

Llama (Meta)

Grok (xAI)

Qwen (Alibaba)

Mistral (Mistral AI)

Test

83

62

33

21

5

5

5

5

4

0

2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)

Jul 24, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.9%chance

91750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2623

2468

Kimi K3.1+ (Moonshot) release date

Aug 31, 2:57 PMDec 16, 4:59 AM

5552

OptionProbability

Before 2026-12-16

Before 2026-12-01

Before 2026-11-16

Before 2026-11-01

Before 2026-10-16

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2026-09-16

74

69

68

67

50

47

20

Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027?

May 31, 5:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.82%chance

8325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

66

Which LLM Maker will have the largest Emotional Intelligence Benchmark Elo Score on https://eqbench.com on Jan 1, 2027?

Jan 6, 7:18 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1109

OptionProbability

Moonshot AI (E.g. Kimi K series)

OpenAI (E.g. ChatGPT series)

Google (E.g. Gemini series)

Antropic (E.g. Claude series)

Nous Research (E.g. Hermes series)

X.AI (E.g. Grok Series)

Other

44

32

5

5

5

5

5

Which LLM Maker will hold the top Safety Score for Spiral-Bench on https://eqbench.com/spiral-bench.html on Jan1, 2027?

Jan 6, 7:30 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

160

OptionProbability

Antropic (E.g. Claude series)

OpenAI (E.g. ChatGPT series)

Moonshot AI (E.g. Kimi K series)

Google (E.g. Gemini series)

X.AI (E.g. Grok Series)

Alibaba (E.g. Qwen series)

Mistral AI (E.g. Mistral series)

DeepSeek (E.g. deepseek series)

Other

34

31

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

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