Know Labs News

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

Mar 4, 3:00 AMJan 1, 3:50 AM

26.46%chance

132156180

OptionVotes

YES

166720

59981

(When) will we know if COVID came from a laboratory?

Sep 2, 7:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

85.24%chance

3612006

OptionProbability

YES

2377

481

When will we know that COVID-19 came from a laboratory? [Unlinked Multiple Choice Derivative of Existing Market]

Nov 24, 10:12 PMOct 4, 6:59 AM

3510464

OptionProbability

By January 2080

[The original market resolves NO before January 2080]

By January 2040

[The original market resolves NO before January 2030]

By January 2035

By January 2030

By January 2026

[All open months are continuously over 90% for at least 7 days because of new information linked in the comments, before January 2026]

[The original market resolves N/A and remains N/A for at least a year, before January 2026]

By January 2024

By March 2024

By July 2024

By January 2025

By July 2025

Will I be vegan for the remainder of 2026?

Jan 2, 12:10 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

89%chance

234835

OptionVotes

YES

2060

771

Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?

Nov 27, 9:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

184149

OptionProbability

Moonshot (Kimi)

Baidu (Ernie)

OpenAI

Anthropic

Google

DeepSeek

Alibaba (Qwen)

Z.ai

Nvidia

Mistral

Thinking Machines Lab

Reka AI

Cohere (Command R+)

Safe Superintelligence / SSI

NexusFlow (Athene)

AI21 Labs (Jamba)

01 AI (Yi)

100

Which will be the first hybrid-propellant rocket to reach orbit?

Apr 4, 1:46 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

8789

OptionProbability

Eris (Gilmour Space)

None reach orbit by EOY 2035

Other

Kestrel V (ATSpace)

Aurora (Reaction Dynamics)

SL1 (HyImpulse)

In 5 years will I think the org Conjecture was net good for alignment?

Dec 18, 8:22 PMDec 18, 11:59 PM

57.09%chance

24626

OptionVotes

YES

1037

924

Will a SOTA model be trained with Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks by 2029?

May 3, 2:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6.85%chance

16523

OptionVotes

YES

369

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

YES

1081

928

Will we ever know whether COVID-19 came from a lab?

Mar 16, 3:31 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.44%chance

14391

OptionVotes

YES

134

Will many visual artists in the US be compensated for AI models trained on their work before the end of 2027?

May 6, 8:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.48%chance

6268

OptionVotes

YES

352

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

122

Know Labs News

Prediction markets for Know Labs

Prediction markets for Know Labs

Prediction markets for Know Labs

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

(When) will we know if COVID came from a laboratory?

When will we know that COVID-19 came from a laboratory? [Unlinked Multiple Choice Derivative of Existing Market]

Will I be vegan for the remainder of 2026?

Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?

Which will be the first hybrid-propellant rocket to reach orbit?

In 5 years will I think the org Conjecture was net good for alignment?

Will a SOTA model be trained with Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks by 2029?

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Will we ever know whether COVID-19 came from a lab?

Will many visual artists in the US be compensated for AI models trained on their work before the end of 2027?

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

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