Know Labs News

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

Mar 4, 3:00 AMJan 1, 3:50 AM

16.52%chance

163614986

OptionVotes

YES

224803

44483

(When) will we know if COVID came from a laboratory?

Sep 2, 7:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

85.24%chance

3612006

OptionProbability

YES

2377

481

When will we know that COVID-19 came from a laboratory? [Unlinked Multiple Choice Derivative of Existing Market]

Nov 24, 10:12 PMOct 4, 6:59 AM

3510464

OptionProbability

By January 2080

[The original market resolves NO before January 2080]

By January 2040

[The original market resolves NO before January 2030]

By January 2035

By January 2030

By January 2026

[All open months are continuously over 90% for at least 7 days because of new information linked in the comments, before January 2026]

[The original market resolves N/A and remains N/A for at least a year, before January 2026]

By January 2024

By March 2024

By July 2024

By January 2025

By July 2025

Will I be vegan for the remainder of 2026?

Jan 2, 12:10 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

92.3%chance

277716

OptionVotes

YES

2767

699

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

39.72%chance

20807

OptionVotes

YES

1328

683

Which will be the first hybrid-propellant rocket to reach orbit?

Apr 4, 1:46 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

8789

OptionProbability

Eris (Gilmour Space)

None reach orbit by EOY 2035

Other

Kestrel V (ATSpace)

Aurora (Reaction Dynamics)

SL1 (HyImpulse)

In 5 years will I think the org Conjecture was net good for alignment?

Dec 18, 8:22 PMDec 18, 11:59 PM

57.09%chance

24626

OptionVotes

YES

1037

924

Will we ever know whether COVID-19 came from a lab?

Mar 16, 3:31 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

37%chance

14392

OptionVotes

YES

132

Will many visual artists in the US be compensated for AI models trained on their work before the end of 2027?

May 6, 8:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.48%chance

6268

OptionVotes

YES

352

Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?

May 22, 11:08 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

3180

OptionProbability

Apr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work

Dec '28: AI systems able to autonomously design their successors (RSI)

Nov '26: AI good enough at biology to both advance science and potentially proliferate bioweapon risks

Nov '27: Autonomous companies exist and generate $10m+ revenues

Apr '27: A team of humans collaborating with AI will make a Nobel-winning discovery

When will bioelectricity be used for organ or tissue regeneration?

Nov 19, 7:31 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

231

OptionProbability

Before 2050

Before 2040

Before 2030

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

122

Know Labs News

Prediction markets for Know Labs

Prediction markets for Know Labs

Prediction markets for Know Labs

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

(When) will we know if COVID came from a laboratory?

When will we know that COVID-19 came from a laboratory? [Unlinked Multiple Choice Derivative of Existing Market]

Will I be vegan for the remainder of 2026?

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Which will be the first hybrid-propellant rocket to reach orbit?

In 5 years will I think the org Conjecture was net good for alignment?

Will we ever know whether COVID-19 came from a lab?

Will many visual artists in the US be compensated for AI models trained on their work before the end of 2027?

Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?

When will bioelectricity be used for organ or tissue regeneration?

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

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