Know Labs News

(When) will we know if COVID came from a laboratory?

Sep 2, 7:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

86.36%chance

3511986

OptionProbability

YES

2498

461

When will we know that COVID-19 came from a laboratory? [Unlinked Multiple Choice Derivative of Existing Market]

Nov 24, 10:12 PMOct 4, 6:59 AM

349917

OptionProbability

By January 2080

[The original market resolves NO before January 2080]

[All open months are continuously over 90% for at least 7 days because of new information linked in the comments, before January 2026]

By January 2040

[The original market resolves NO before January 2030]

By January 2035

[The original market resolves N/A and remains N/A for at least a year, before January 2026]

By January 2030

By January 2026

By January 2024

By March 2024

By July 2024

By January 2025

By July 2025

Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?

Nov 27, 9:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

133919

OptionProbability

Baidu (Ernie)

OpenAI

Anthropic

Google

DeepSeek

Alibaba (Qwen)

Z.ai

Moonshot (Kimi)

Mistral

Nvidia

AI21 Labs (Jamba)

Thinking Machines Lab

Cohere (Command R+)

Reka AI

NexusFlow (Athene)

01 AI (Yi)

Safe Superintelligence / SSI

100

Will I be vegan for the remainder of 2026?

Jan 2, 12:10 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

77%chance

152159

OptionVotes

YES

683

555

Which will be the first hybrid-propellant rocket to reach orbit?

Apr 4, 1:46 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

7739

OptionProbability

Eris (Gilmour Space)

None reach orbit by EOY 2035

Other

Aurora (Reaction Dynamics)

Kestrel V (ATSpace)

SL1 (HyImpulse)

In 5 years will I think the org Conjecture was net good for alignment?

Dec 18, 8:22 PMDec 18, 11:59 PM

57.09%chance

24626

OptionVotes

YES

1037

924

Will a SOTA model be trained with Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks by 2029?

May 3, 2:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6.85%chance

16523

OptionVotes

YES

369

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

YES

1081

928

Will many visual artists in the US be compensated for AI models trained on their work before the end of 2027?

May 6, 8:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.48%chance

6268

OptionVotes

YES

352

Will we ever know whether COVID-19 came from a lab?

Mar 16, 3:31 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64.14%chance

8226

OptionVotes

YES

135

When will bioelectricity be used for organ or tissue regeneration?

Nov 19, 7:31 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

231

OptionProbability

Before 2050

Before 2040

Before 2030

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

122

Know Labs News

Prediction markets for Know Labs

Prediction markets for Know Labs

Prediction markets for Know Labs

(When) will we know if COVID came from a laboratory?

When will we know that COVID-19 came from a laboratory? [Unlinked Multiple Choice Derivative of Existing Market]

Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?

Will I be vegan for the remainder of 2026?

Which will be the first hybrid-propellant rocket to reach orbit?

In 5 years will I think the org Conjecture was net good for alignment?

Will a SOTA model be trained with Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks by 2029?

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Will many visual artists in the US be compensated for AI models trained on their work before the end of 2027?

Will we ever know whether COVID-19 came from a lab?

When will bioelectricity be used for organ or tissue regeneration?

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

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