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Prediction markets for Know Labs

(When) will we know if COVID came from a laboratory?

Sep 2, 7:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

86.36%chance

3511986

OptionProbability

NO

YES

2498

461

7. Major progress will be made on building AI systems that can themselves autonomously build better AI systems.

Dec 27, 8:18 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

73.96%chance

203037

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1685

593

Which will be the first hybrid-propellant rocket to reach orbit?

Apr 4, 1:46 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

7729

OptionProbability

Eris (Gilmour Space)

None (resolves if none have reached orbit by question end - EOY 2035)

Other

Kestrel V (ATSpace)

Aurora (Reaction Dynamics)

SL1 (HyImpulse)

61

18

7

6

5

4

In 5 years will I think the org Conjecture was net good for alignment?

Dec 18, 8:22 PMDec 18, 11:59 PM

56.65%chance

23616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

914

Will a SOTA model be trained with Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks by 2029?

May 3, 2:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7.59%chance

15503

OptionVotes

YES

NO

349

29

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

Will Google DeepMind hire an AI welfare researcher before the end of 2025?

Feb 10, 10:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.54%chance

12342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

291

34

Will many visual artists in the US be compensated for AI models trained on their work before the end of 2027?

May 6, 8:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7%chance

5267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

365

27

Will OpenAI hire an AI welfare researcher before the end of 2025?

Feb 6, 9:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.14%chance

7169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

49

Will we ever know whether COVID-19 came from a lab?

Mar 16, 3:31 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40%chance

5121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

When will bioelectricity be used for organ or tissue regeneration?

Nov 19, 7:31 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

231

OptionProbability

Before 2050

Before 2040

Before 2030

61

44

32

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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