Know Labs News

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

Mar 4, 3:00 AMJan 1, 3:50 AM

22.57%chance

183788836

OptionVotes

YES

185221

53989

(When) will we know if COVID came from a laboratory?

Sep 2, 7:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

85.24%chance

3612006

OptionProbability

YES

2377

481

When will we know that COVID-19 came from a laboratory? [Unlinked Multiple Choice Derivative of Existing Market]

Nov 24, 10:12 PMOct 4, 6:59 AM

3510464

OptionProbability

By January 2080

[The original market resolves NO before January 2080]

By January 2040

[The original market resolves NO before January 2030]

By January 2035

By January 2030

By January 2026

[All open months are continuously over 90% for at least 7 days because of new information linked in the comments, before January 2026]

[The original market resolves N/A and remains N/A for at least a year, before January 2026]

By January 2024

By March 2024

By July 2024

By January 2025

By July 2025

Will I be vegan for the remainder of 2026?

Jan 2, 12:10 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

93.53%chance

298290

OptionVotes

YES

3188

667

Will there be another HuggingFace like public incident (of the same scale) before Sep 2027?

Aug 31, 12:01 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

91.05%chance

278286

OptionVotes

YES

3190

314

Will AI progress slow down before July 2027 due to an agreement to 'pace the frontier'?

Sep 12, 3:14 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

27.62%chance

101309

OptionVotes

YES

1619

618

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

28.12%chance

251306

OptionVotes

YES

1669

510

Which will be the first hybrid-propellant rocket to reach orbit?

Apr 4, 1:46 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

8789

OptionProbability

Eris (Gilmour Space)

None reach orbit by EOY 2035

Other

Kestrel V (ATSpace)

Aurora (Reaction Dynamics)

SL1 (HyImpulse)

In 5 years will I think the org Conjecture was net good for alignment?

Dec 18, 8:22 PMDec 18, 11:59 PM

57.09%chance

24626

OptionVotes

YES

1037

924

Will we ever know whether COVID-19 came from a lab?

Mar 16, 3:31 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

48.17%chance

16423

OptionVotes

YES

105

When will bioelectricity be used for organ or tissue regeneration?

Nov 19, 7:31 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

231

OptionProbability

Before 2050

Before 2040

Before 2030

Will any frontier AI lab publicly commit to a Human Preservation constraint in model architecture before 2029?

Oct 21, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

Know Labs News

Prediction markets for Know Labs

Prediction markets for Know Labs

Prediction markets for Know Labs

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

(When) will we know if COVID came from a laboratory?

When will we know that COVID-19 came from a laboratory? [Unlinked Multiple Choice Derivative of Existing Market]

Will I be vegan for the remainder of 2026?

Will there be another HuggingFace like public incident (of the same scale) before Sep 2027?

Will AI progress slow down before July 2027 due to an agreement to 'pace the frontier'?

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Which will be the first hybrid-propellant rocket to reach orbit?

In 5 years will I think the org Conjecture was net good for alignment?

Will we ever know whether COVID-19 came from a lab?

When will bioelectricity be used for organ or tissue regeneration?

Will any frontier AI lab publicly commit to a Human Preservation constraint in model architecture before 2029?

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