Know Labs News

(When) will we know if COVID came from a laboratory?

Sep 2, 7:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

86.36%chance

3511986

OptionProbability

YES

2498

461

When will we know that COVID-19 came from a laboratory? [Unlinked Multiple Choice Derivative of Existing Market]

Nov 24, 10:12 PMOct 4, 6:59 AM

349917

OptionProbability

By January 2080

[The original market resolves NO before January 2080]

[All open months are continuously over 90% for at least 7 days because of new information linked in the comments, before January 2026]

By January 2040

[The original market resolves NO before January 2030]

By January 2035

[The original market resolves N/A and remains N/A for at least a year, before January 2026]

By January 2030

By January 2026

By January 2024

By March 2024

By July 2024

By January 2025

By July 2025

7. Major progress will be made on building AI systems that can themselves autonomously build better AI systems.

Dec 27, 8:18 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

79.78%chance

258443

OptionVotes

YES

1987

503

Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?

Sep 17, 4:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

238297

OptionProbability

Mistral

DeepSeek

Alibaba (Qwen)

Moonshot (Kimi)

AI21 Labs (Jamba)

Safe Superintelligence / SSI

Reka AI

NexusFlow (Athene)

01 AI (Yi)

Cohere (Command R+)

Nvidia

thinking machines

100

In 5 years will I think the org Conjecture was net good for alignment?

Dec 18, 8:22 PMDec 18, 11:59 PM

57.09%chance

24626

OptionVotes

YES

1037

924

Will Google DeepMind hire an AI welfare researcher before the end of 2025?

Feb 10, 10:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.5%chance

14574

OptionVotes

YES

197

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

YES

1081

928

Will many visual artists in the US be compensated for AI models trained on their work before the end of 2027?

May 6, 8:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7%chance

5267

OptionVotes

YES

365

Will we ever know whether COVID-19 came from a lab?

Mar 16, 3:31 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.31%chance

7201

OptionVotes

YES

109

What organization will win the bid to operate Fermilab?

Jan 27, 3:51 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

643

OptionProbability

Fermi Research Alliance

Associated Universities, Inc.

Other

When will bioelectricity be used for organ or tissue regeneration?

Nov 19, 7:31 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

231

OptionProbability

Before 2050

Before 2040

Before 2030

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

122

Know Labs News

Prediction markets for Know Labs

Prediction markets for Know Labs

Prediction markets for Know Labs

(When) will we know if COVID came from a laboratory?

When will we know that COVID-19 came from a laboratory? [Unlinked Multiple Choice Derivative of Existing Market]

7. Major progress will be made on building AI systems that can themselves autonomously build better AI systems.

Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?

In 5 years will I think the org Conjecture was net good for alignment?

Will Google DeepMind hire an AI welfare researcher before the end of 2025?

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Will many visual artists in the US be compensated for AI models trained on their work before the end of 2027?

Will we ever know whether COVID-19 came from a lab?

What organization will win the bid to operate Fermilab?

When will bioelectricity be used for organ or tissue regeneration?

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

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