KRA News

How will Krantz's Aella market resolve?

Feb 25, 4:59 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

177048

OptionProbability

N/A

YES

If Krantz goes on a proper date with Robin Hanson, they will win a Nobel Prize in Economics.

Mar 15, 12:47 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

31.88%chance

85445

OptionVotes

YES

1512

841

Should society have pivoted from artificial intelligence to krantz collective intelligence?

Jan 21, 8:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

74.94%chance

41861

OptionVotes

YES

1729

578

Will Jesse Powell (co-founder of Kraken exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Dec 2, 5:12 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

8.9%chance

16897

OptionVotes

YES

1210

953

Will Russia capture Kramatorsk at least once before EOY 2026?

Mar 2, 4:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.67%chance

13850

OptionVotes

YES

1229

622

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

1003

994

If Krantz goes on a proper date with Ben Goertzle, they will win a Nobel Prize in Philosophy.

Mar 15, 12:54 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

42%chance

7619

OptionVotes

YES

118

Will anyone give @Krantz action at 100:1 odds that his algorithm is a solution to alignment?

Jul 22, 6:17 PMJan 1, 7:12 PM

4.74%chance

3536

OptionVotes

YES

448

Which language families will be widely academically recognized in the field of linguistics, by EOY 2035?

Apr 3, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12499

OptionProbability

Dene-Yeniseian (language family that includes both Na-Dene and Yeniseian languages)

Austro-Tai (language family that includes both Austronesian and Kra-Dai languages)

Italo-Celtic (an IE subfamily that includes both Latin and a Celtic language, but no languages from other major extant IE families)

Je-Tupi-Carib (language family that includes both Je, Tupi and Carib languages)

Pontic (language family that includes both Indo-European and Northwest Caucasian languages)

Paleo-Balkan (an IE subfamily that includes all of: Albanian, Ilyrian, Daco-Thracian, Hellenic, Phrygian. Can also include Armenian, but no languages from other major extant IE families)

Uralo-Siberian (language family that includes Uralic, Yukaghir and Eskaleut)

Altaic (or any other language family containing both Turkic, Tungusic and Mongolic languages)

Indo-Uralic (language family that includes both Indo-European and Uralic languages)

Proto-World (all known languages in the world are proven to belong to the same macrofamily)

If @krantz goes on a 'proper date' with Nate Soares, Nate will lower his pdoom to below 0.1 (10%) and have kids.

Jun 24, 11:54 AMJan 1, 12:47 PM

54.91%chance

5206

OptionVotes

YES

110

Will KRAZAM top "microservices" by mid 2029

May 18, 3:51 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

46.73%chance

170

OptionVotes

YES

1068

937

Will the Kra Isthmus Canal open before 2050?

Aug 16, 11:15 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

31%chance

454

OptionVotes

YES

131

KRA News

Prediction markets for KRA

Prediction markets for KRA

Prediction markets for KRA

How will Krantz's Aella market resolve?

If Krantz goes on a proper date with Robin Hanson, they will win a Nobel Prize in Economics.

Should society have pivoted from artificial intelligence to krantz collective intelligence?

Will Jesse Powell (co-founder of Kraken exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Will Russia capture Kramatorsk at least once before EOY 2026?

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

If Krantz goes on a proper date with Ben Goertzle, they will win a Nobel Prize in Philosophy.

Will anyone give @Krantz action at 100:1 odds that his algorithm is a solution to alignment?

Which language families will be widely academically recognized in the field of linguistics, by EOY 2035?

If @krantz goes on a 'proper date' with Nate Soares, Nate will lower his pdoom to below 0.1 (10%) and have kids.

Will KRAZAM top "microservices" by mid 2029

Will the Kra Isthmus Canal open before 2050?

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