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Prediction markets for KYC

Will Manifold leak KYC information by the end of 2026?

Sep 20, 9:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.89%chance

2320529

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17934

4842

Will Claude Fable 5 be re-enabled for Non-Americans before July 1st, 2026?

Jun 13, 9:47 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

15.42%chance

7011191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2021

685

Polymarket generally available to UK customers by when?

Dec 7, 10:03 PMJan 1, 10:02 PM

31213

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2028

Before Jul 2027

Before Oct 2027

Before Apr 2027

Before Jan 2027

Before Oct 2026

Before Jul 2026

Before Apr 2026

76

71

71

50

36

28

14

1

Kalshi generally available to UK customers by when?

Dec 7, 10:01 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

3950

OptionProbability

Before Apr 2027

Before Jul 2027

Before Oct 2027

Before Jan 2028

Before Jan 2027

Before Oct 2026

Before Jul 2026

Before Apr 2026

50

50

50

50

47

36

17

1

Will OpenAI delay OR withdraw a model release due to demands by the US US government by EOY 2026?

Jun 13, 5:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.05%chance

5379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

484

89

Will I have to show my ID to get full access to Discord or Twitter at the time of the next UK election?

Jul 29, 1:57 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

83.86%chance

10260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

228

44

Will the US ban businesses/merchants from receiving large crypto transfers from non-'KYC'ed self-hosted wallets?

Mar 24, 3:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.56%chance

14166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

996

When will I be able to use Polymarket in the US?

Mar 11, 10:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

150

OptionProbability

Before 2028-01-01

Before 2027-01-01

69

31

Will Amazon in the US be legally permitted to accept bitcoin without additional KYC before 2030?

Mar 28, 4:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39.25%chance

545

OptionVotes

YES

NO

213

154

If Cons win next election, I have to show ID for Discord & Twitter full access at time of the election after that?

Jul 29, 2:04 AMJan 1, 3:03 AM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

When will Polymarket disable permissionless pUSD withdrawals?

May 4, 1:36 PMDec 31, 2:02 PM

00

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028 or later

33

33

33

Should Manifold require KYC / age verification to allow users under 16, for children’s protection?

Dec 13, 6:41 PMJan 13, 9:59 PM

210

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