OptionProbability
Rams beat Panthers (01/10) 4:30 PM (NFL+)
Bills beat Jaguars (01/11) 1:00 PM (TBD)
49ers beat Eagles (01/11) 4:30 PM (TBD)
Texans beat Steelers (01/12) 8:15 PM (TBD)
Rams beat Bears (01/18) 6:30 PM (NBC)
New England Patriots beat Denver Broncos (01/25) 3:00 PM (TBD)
Seattle Seahawks beat New England Patriots (02/08) 6:30 PM (TBD)
Packers beat Bears (01/10) 8:00 PM (TBD)
Chargers beat Patriots (01/11) 8:15 PM (TBD)
Bills beat Broncos (01/17) 4:30 PM (CBS)
49ers beat Seahawks (01/17) 8:00PM (FOX)
Texans beat Patriots (01/18) 3:00 PM (ESPN/ABC)
LA Rams beat Seattle Seahawks (01/25) 6:30 PM (TBD)
100
100
100
100
100
100
69
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Christian Pulisic
Folarin Balogun
Chris Richards
Matt Freese
Antonee Robinson
Weston McKennie
Malik Tillman
Tyler Adams
Sergiño Dest
Diego Luna
Alex Freeman
Timothy Weah
Tanner Tessmann
Matt Turner
Haji Wright
Gio Reyna
Miles Robinson
Brenden Aaronson
Alejandro Zendejas
Mark McKenzie
Tim Ream
Joe Scally
Aidan Morris
Johnny Cardoso
Max Arfsten
Patrick Schulte
Patrick Agyemang
Cameron Carter-Vickers
Ricardo Pepi
Cristian Roldan
Roman Celentano
Jordan Morris
Auston Trusty
Josh Sargent
Luca de la Torre
Sean Zawadzki
Jack McGlynn
John Tolkin
Walker Zimmerman
Timmy Tillman
Sebastian Berhalter
James Sands
Ethan Horvath
Quinn Sullivan
Damion Downs
Jonathan Klinsmann
Kristoffer Lund
Zack Steffen
Paxten Aaronson
Djordje Mihailovic
Kellyn Acosta
Yunus Musah
Paul Arriola
Emmanuel Sabbi
Jesús Ferreira
Shaq Moore
Tristan Blackmon
Drake Callender
Sean Johnson
Marlon Fossey
Brian White
Taha Habroune
Mauricio Cuevas
Daryl Dike
Brandon Vázquez
Lucho Acosta
Cade Cowell
DeAndre Yedlin
Julian Gressel
96
87
86
84
83
83
81
79
77
75
74
71
71
70
69
68
59
58
58
56
56
54
53
52
52
50
50
49
47
45
45
44
43
41
37
34
32
31
28
28
28
28
24
24
24
24
23
22
22
21
19
17
15
14
13
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
8
7
7
4
4
OptionProbability
Fedez e Masini - Male necessario
Tommaso Paradiso - I romantici
Arisa - Magica favola -
Chiello - Ti penso sempre
Eddie Brock - Avvoltoi
Enrico Nigiotti - Ogni volta che non so volare
Ermal Meta - Stella stellina
Francesco Renga - Il meglio di me
Fulminacci - Stupida sfortuna
Leo Gassmann - Naturale
Levante - Sei tu
Luchè - Labirinto
Malika Ayane - Animali notturni
Mara Sattei - Le cose che non sai di me
Maria Antonietta e Colombre - La felicità e basta
Michele Bravi - Prima o poi
Nayt - Prima che
Sal Da Vinci - Per sempre sì
Sayf - Tu mi piaci tanto
Serena Brancale - Qui con me
Tredici Pietro - Uomo che cade
Dargen D'Amico - Ai ai
Bambole di pezza - Resta con me
Ditonellapiaga - Che fastidio!
Elettra Lamborghini - Voilà
J-Ax - Italia Starter Pack
LDA e AKA 7even - Poesie clandestine
Patty Pravo - Opera
Raf - Ora e per sempre
Samurai Jay - Ossessione
15
12
10
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Idols (hidden individual immunity, whether found at camp, obtained through beware advantages, journeys, or otherwise)
Live Finale and Reunion Show in LA (YES) / Winner Reveal and After show in Fiji (NO)
Tribe Swap (YES) / No Tribe Swap (NO)
Start with rice (YES) / Make them earn rice (NO)
Lots of twists (YES) / Straightforward game (NO)
Final Four Challenge: Option C (Simmotion; the ball track one)
Advantages: Dynamic Power
Advantages: Minimal Power
Advantages: Strategic Power
Final Four Challenge: Option A (Plinko + Puzzle)
Final Four Fire Making (YES) / Final four elimination decided by vote (NO)
Final Four Challenge: Option B (Obstacle course ft mud and puzzle)
93
90
76
50
50
45
41
34
34
32
20
15
OptionProbability
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henley lead Keegan Bradley?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henley lead Keegan Bradley?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henly lead J.J. Spaun?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Keegan Bradley lead Colin Morikawa?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Maverick McNealy?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Corey Conners lead Kristoffer Reitan?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Ben Griffin?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Ben Griffin?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Ben Griffin?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Harry Hall lead Kevin Roy?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ryan Riley lead Chris Gerard?
01-23, After Round 2 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Ryan Gerard lead Patrick Rodgers?
01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Ryan Gerard lead Patrick Rodgers?
01-25, After Round 4 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Ryan Gerard lead Patrick Rodgers?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Robert MacIntyre lead Jacob Bridgeman?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Davis Riley lead Taylor Pendrith?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Lee Hodges lead Harry Hall?
01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Blades Brown lead Scottie Scheffler?
01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Blades Brown lead Si Woo Kim?
01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Jason Day lead Andrew Putnam?
01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Tom Hoge lead Davis Riley?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Stephan Jaeger lead Seamus Power?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Joel Dahmen lead Max McGreevy?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henley lead Keegan Bradley?
01-25, After Round 4 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Nick Taylor?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Nick Taylor?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Nick Taylor?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
91-25, After Round 4 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?
02-06, After Round 2 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Chris Gotterup?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henley lead Keegan Bradley?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
02-15, After Round 4 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
02-22, After Round 4 of the Genesis Invitational in Pacific Pallisades, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
03-01, After Round 4 of the Cognizant Classic in Palm Beach Gardens, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
03-08, After Round 4 of the Arnold Palmer Invitational in Orlando, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?
04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Rory McIlroy lead Justin Rose?
04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Patrick Reed lead Justin Rose?
04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Rory McIlroy lead Patrick Reed?
04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Rory McIlroy lead Scottie Scheffler?
04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Rose?
04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Scottie Scheffler lead Patrick Reed?
01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
02-05, After Round 1 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Chris Gotterup?
02-07, After Round 3 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Chris Gotterup?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Chris Gotterup?
02-05, After Round 1 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Si Woo Kim lead Pierceson Coody?
02-06, After Round 2 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Si Woo Kim lead Pierceson Coody?
02-07, After Round 3 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Si Woo Kim lead Pierceson Coody?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Si Woo Kim lead Pierceson Coody?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Scottie Scheffler?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Nick Taylor?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Robert McIntyre lead Ben Griffin?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Aaron Rai lead Chris Gotterup?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Kevin Roy?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ben Griffin lead Kevin Roy?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ben Griffin lead Chris Gotterup?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Alex Smalley lead John Parry?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Kevin Roy?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Kevin Roy?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ben Griffin lead Kevin Roy?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ben Griffin lead Kevin Roy?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Harry Hall lead Chris Gotterup?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Kevin Roy lead Chris Gotterup?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Russell Henley lead Scottie Scheffler?
01-23, After Round 2 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Russell Henley lead Scottie Scheffler?
01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Russell Henley lead Scottie Scheffler?
01-25, After Round 4 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Russell Henley lead Scottie Scheffler?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Ryan Gerard lead Patrick Rodgers?
01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Matt McCarty lead Si Woo Kim?
01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Ryan Gerard lead Chris Gotterup?
01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Matt McCarty lead Patrick Rodgers?
01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Sam Stevens lead Si Woo Kim?
01-30, After Round 2 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Justin Lower lead Justin Rose?
01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Justin Lower lead Justin Rose?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Justin Lower lead Justin Rose?
01-30, After Round 2 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Max Greyersman lead Hideki Matsuyama?
01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Max Greyersman lead Hideki Matsuyama?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Max Greyersman lead Hideki Matsuyama?
01-30, After Round 2 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Stephan Jaeger lead Seamus Power?
01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Stephan Jaeger lead Seamus Power?
01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Seamus Power lead Justin Rose?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Seamus Power lead Justin Rose?
01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Danny Walker lead Eric Cole?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Danny Walker lead Eric Cole?
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
90
85
69
66
65
59
59
59
59
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
44
41
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Abelardo de la Espriella
Iván Cepeda Castro
Paloma Valencia
Sergio Fajardo (DC)
Roy Barreras
Vicky Dávila (IND)
Other
39
39
8
5
3
3
3
OptionProbability
Susan Collins (Senate - ME): Voted to convict Trump in 2021.
John Cornyn (Senate - TX): With McConnell retiring, Cornyn is the new face of the "Establishment". Trump allies (like Texas AG Ken Paxton) have actively floated primary challenges against him.
David Valadao (House - CA): The only House Republican who voted to impeach Trump who is running for re-election in 2026.
Field (Any other Targeted Incumbent not listed): If a major new target emerges add them as a standalone option.
Thomas Massie (House - KY-04): Voted against the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act"
Bill Cassidy (Senate - LA): Voted to convict Trump in 2021 and was immediately censured by his state party. He is running for re-election and will face a massive Trump-backed primary challenge.
No Targeted Incumbent will survive (Trump Sweep)
79
70
60
44
40
30
19
OptionProbability
A State in the Union
Independent Country with Compact of Free Association (a la Federated States of Micronesia)
Fully Independent Country
United States dissolves (or similar)
61
29
9
1
OptionProbability
≥1 bones (like Denisova 4, Homo denisova, ~60kya)
≥2 bones (like Xiahe mandible, Homo denisova, ~160kya)
≥20 bones (enough for ~complete skull, like La Ferrassie 1, Homo neanderthalensis, ~50kya)
No more fossils found
≥40 bones (like AL 288-1 / Lucy / Dinkʼinesh, Australopithecus afarensis, ~3.2Mya)
≥100 bones (like KNM-WT 15000 / Turkana Boy / Nariokotome Boy, Homo erectus, ~1.5Mya)
≥200 bones (~complete skeleton, like Barum Woman / Bäckaskogskvinna, Homo sapiens, ~9kya)
≥200 bones plus preserved soft tissues (mummified body, like Ötzi / The Iceman, Homo sapiens, ~5.2kya)
71
41
34
31
31
27
20
19
OptionProbability
Rick Caruso
Lindsey Horvath
Other
No LA County Executive elected in 2028 for any reason
27
27
27
20
OptionProbability
Atlanta United
Austin FC
Charlotte FC
Chicago Fire FC
FC Cincinnati
Colorado Rapids
Columbus Crew
D.C. United
FC Dallas
Houston Dynamo FC
Sporting Kansas City
LA Galaxy
Los Angeles Football Club
Inter Miami CF
Minnesota United FC
CF Montreal
Nashville SC
New England Revolution
Red Bull New York
New York City Football Club
Orlando City
Philadelphia Union
Portland Timbers
Real Salt Lake
San Diego FC
San Jose Earthquakes
Seattle Sounders
St. Louis City SC
Toronto FC
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
OptionProbability
Chicago, IL
New Orleans, LA
St. Louis, MO
Los Angeles, CA
Philadelphia, PA
Boston, MA
San Antonio, TX
Atlanta, GA
Denver, CO
Dallas, TX
Other (Comment below for which city - may add to the list)
Other
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
