LA Times News

Who will break 2:00 in the marathon?

Dec 10, 3:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

187336

OptionProbability

Other

No one by market close

Jacob Kiplimo

Sabastian Sawe

John Korir

Sisay Lemma

Alexander Mutiso Munyao

Eliud Kipchoge

Evans Chebet

Kelvin Kiptum

Pacific Coast Highway: can it be driven from SF to LA on these days? (CA Route 1 closures/washouts/fires), til 2030

Jan 9, 9:03 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

96153

OptionProbability

May 1 2026

July 1 2026

March 1 2026

Jan 1 2027

July 1 2027

July 1 2028

Jan 1 2028

Jan 1 2029

July 1 2029

Sep 1 2025

Jan 1 2026

Dec 1 2025

August 1 2025

July 1 2025

March 1 2025

June 1 2025

"Shangri-La diet" theory becomes widely accepted by scientists before 2030.

Nov 30, 9:36 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

8.78%chance

193924

OptionVotes

YES

1259

945

Attempt on Candace Owens' life before end of 2026?

Nov 24, 7:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.84%chance

142720

OptionVotes

YES

2605

384

Cycling, Israel-Premier Tech and Pro-Palestinian Protests Megamarket

Sep 16, 12:53 AMNov 3, 1:29 AM

112409

OptionProbability

A rider leaves Israel-Premier Tech and explicitly cites political reasons or concern for their safety due to protests as a reason for doing so

Israel-Premier Tech voluntarily ends their partnership with Israel

The Israel-Premier Tech team dissolves or completely changes ownership

Another WorldTour cycling race in Spain is disrupted by pro-Palestine protests

A WorldTour cycling race outside of Spain is disrupted by pro-Palestine protests

The Grand Depart of the 2026 Tour de France takes place in Spain, but at least one stage is disrupted by pro-Palestine protests

A significant cycling race (.1 or higher) is boycotted by at least 25% of participating riders because of the participation of Israel-Premier Tech

The organizer or overseeing government of a WorldTour race bars Israel-Premier Tech from participating, in contradiction to the regulations of the UCI

The Grand Depart of the 2026 Tour de France is moved outside of Spain

The UCI takes action to sanction Israel-Premier Tech, such as barring them from UCI races or requiring them to end their partnership with Israel or remove Israel from the title of their team

100

The first human to be declared “immortal” will be from which generation?

Dec 10, 9:08 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

372082

OptionProbability

Other

Zoomer

Alpha

Millennial

Gamma

Beta

Video generation model solves Sudoku puzzles by EOY 2026?

Sep 28, 6:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.94%chance

171993

OptionVotes

YES

1782

561

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

68.62%chance

211582

OptionVotes

YES

1331

784

Will Usain Bolt be exposed as a drugs cheat by 2050?

Jun 1, 3:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.59%chance

201150

OptionVotes

YES

1662

602

Will there be a 538 election model for the 2028 election?

Mar 5, 3:52 PMNov 6, 4:59 AM

25.94%chance

10398

OptionVotes

YES

169

What will be the established name for the phenomenon of AI-driven job loss?

Jun 1, 4:59 PMJan 1, 5:53 PM

8306

OptionProbability

No convergence on a term by EOY 2027

The Jobpocalypse

Other

AI job displacement

The Great Automation

Jobquake(s)

Will Simone Biles compete in the 2028 L.A. Olympic Summer Games?

Aug 28, 9:46 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

37.93%chance

478

OptionVotes

YES

128

LA Times News

Prediction markets for LA Times

Prediction markets for LA Times

Prediction markets for LA Times

Who will break 2:00 in the marathon?

Pacific Coast Highway: can it be driven from SF to LA on these days? (CA Route 1 closures/washouts/fires), til 2030

"Shangri-La diet" theory becomes widely accepted by scientists before 2030.

Attempt on Candace Owens' life before end of 2026?

Cycling, Israel-Premier Tech and Pro-Palestinian Protests Megamarket

The first human to be declared “immortal” will be from which generation?

Video generation model solves Sudoku puzzles by EOY 2026?

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Will Usain Bolt be exposed as a drugs cheat by 2050?

Will there be a 538 election model for the 2028 election?

What will be the established name for the phenomenon of AI-driven job loss?

Will Simone Biles compete in the 2028 L.A. Olympic Summer Games?

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