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Prediction markets for LA Times

"Shangri-La diet" theory becomes widely accepted by scientists before 2030.

Nov 30, 9:36 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

8.78%chance

193924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

945

The first human to be declared “immortal” will be from which generation?

Dec 10, 9:08 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

372082

OptionProbability

Other

Zoomer

Alpha

Millennial

Gamma

Beta

67

9

9

6

5

4

Who will be elected mayor of Los Angeles in 2026?

Jul 14, 4:30 AMMay 3, 10:59 PM

41580

OptionProbability

Rick Caruso

Other

Karen Bass

Asaad Alnajjar

40

32

24

5

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

67.69%chance

191382

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1299

799

Will the 538 brand be active again by the end of the year?

Mar 5, 3:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.99%chance

201255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

654

Will Usain Bolt be exposed as a drugs cheat by 2050?

Jun 1, 3:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.68%chance

19650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

794

Will there be a 538 election model for the 2028 election?

Mar 5, 3:52 PMNov 6, 4:59 AM

25.94%chance

10398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

59

In what year will Equatorial Guinea move its capital to Ciudad de la Paz?

Feb 1, 1:04 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2332

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

Never (scrapped)

Other

2025

2024

17

17

17

17

17

12

1

What will be the established name for the phenomenon of AI-driven job loss?

Jun 1, 4:59 PMJan 1, 5:53 PM

8306

OptionProbability

No convergence on a term by EOY 2027

The Jobpocalypse

Other

AI job displacement

The Great Automation

Jobquake(s)

40

28

24

4

2

2

How many stages will Jonas Vingegaard win at the 2025 Vuelta a Espana?

Aug 1, 1:56 AMSep 14, 11:59 PM

5201

OptionProbability

3

2

0

1

4

6 or more

5

27

25

22

13

6

4

3

What will be the established name for AI-fueled psychosis/acute mental illness/delusional behavior?

May 7, 8:59 PMJan 1, 9:15 PM

9178

OptionProbability

No established term by EOY 2026

AI-induced psychosis

Other

Cyberpsychosis

To Be "Glazed"

ChatGPT-induced psychosis

Sycophancy Syndrome

Simulacra Syndrome

Promptosis

57

14

14

4

3

2

2

2

2

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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