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Prediction markets for Labour government

If Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028?

Jun 4, 4:21 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2.25%chance

4949542

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6598

152

What will be the outcome of the 2026 New Zealand General Election?

Jan 2, 2:49 AMOct 16, 11:59 PM

1721294

OptionProbability

Labour coalition

National coalition

No government formed

Other

52

43

3

2

Hipkins+Luxon+Peters all leaders on day of next election?

Dec 23, 6:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.27%chance

1210412

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3492

47

Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?

Jun 20, 10:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

155857

OptionProbability

**Assuming Burnham is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

**Assuming Starmer is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

30

6

Will Labour form a 2 term government?

May 23, 12:47 PMSep 1, 10:59 PM

28.76%chance

245388

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1599

645

Will UK children face a social media curfew before 2029?

Jun 9, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.3%chance

101832

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1259

795

During the next Labour government, will there be a Foreign Secretary serving from the House of Lords?

Apr 17, 4:51 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

13.99%chance

161715

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1810

784

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Aug 3, 11:25 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

30.74%chance

231305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

963

New Zealand Labour forms a government in 2026 without requiring support from Te Pāti Māori

Mar 21, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.79%chance

81263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1432

698

Will Andy Burnham lead Labour to the next general election?

Jun 19, 8:41 PMAug 15, 11:59 PM

74.47%chance

8575

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1341

854

If Labour wins the 2026 NZ general election, they are dependent on support from Te Pāti Māori to govern

Mar 21, 5:34 PMNov 21, 11:59 PM

64.4%chance

5461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1345

744

The Labour Party will win the next UK election (2023/4) and then govern for more than 8 contiguous years

Jun 11, 10:06 PMJun 11, 11:59 PM

35.8%chance

675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

154

111

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