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Prediction markets for Labour government

If Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028?

Jun 4, 4:21 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

27.3%chance

4142059

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1632

613

What will be the outcome of the 2026 New Zealand General Election?

Jan 2, 2:49 AMOct 16, 11:59 PM

1013909

OptionProbability

National coalition

Labour coalition

No government formed

Other

53

38

5

4

Will a "lifetime smoking ban" become law in the UK before the next General Election after July 2024?

May 31, 1:56 PMMay 7, 10:59 PM

76.1%chance

6613871

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1784

560

Hipkins+Luxon+Peters all leaders on day of next election?

Dec 23, 6:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.64%chance

99909

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3601

677

Will Labour form a 2 term government?

May 23, 12:47 PMSep 1, 10:59 PM

32.55%chance

235236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1462

706

After the 2026 New Zealand general election, which parties will form a government?

Aug 22, 12:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

234806

OptionProbability

National

NZ First

ACT

Labour

Greens

Te Pāti Māori

Opportunities (TOP)

NewZeal

Legalise Cannabis

New Conservative

55

50

49

43

41

26

7

2

2

2

During the next Labour government, will there be a Foreign Secretary serving from the House of Lords?

Apr 17, 4:51 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

13.99%chance

161715

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1810

784

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Aug 3, 11:25 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

30.74%chance

231305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

963

Will UK children face a social media curfew before 2029?

Jun 9, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.13%chance

7956

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1823

549

Will all Five Eyes countries be governed by red parties before the end of Trump’s second term?

Apr 28, 10:24 PMJan 20, 5:00 PM

38.58%chance

15583

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1143

899

The Labour Party will win the next UK election (2023/4) and then govern for more than 8 contiguous years

Jun 11, 10:06 PMJun 11, 11:59 PM

35.8%chance

675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

154

111

Labour rules out Te Pati Maori for 2026 nz election?

Dec 23, 6:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.76%chance

268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

154

87

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