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Labour government News

Who will be the next British Prime Minister following a General Election?

Sep 29, 9:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9282055

OptionProbability

Nigel Farage

Keir Starmer

Other

Andy Burnham

Kemi Badenoch

Angela Rayner

Wes Streeting

Matt Clifford

Rupert Lowe

Zack Polanski

Ed Miliband

Robert Jenrick

James Cleverly

Ed Davey

Boris Johnson

Louise Haigh

Lawrence Newport

Rachel Reeves

Danny Kruger

Jeremy Clarkson

Jeremy Corbyn

Richard Tice

Idris Elba

30

13

13

9

8

5

5

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

If Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028?

Jun 4, 4:21 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

36.37%chance

3838776

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1323

756

Will a "lifetime smoking ban" become law in the UK before the next General Election after July 2024?

May 31, 1:56 PMMay 7, 10:59 PM

76.1%chance

6613871

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1784

560

What will be the outcome of the 2026 New Zealand General Election?

Jan 2, 2:49 AMOct 16, 11:59 PM

812404

OptionProbability

National coalition

Labour coalition

No government formed

Other

50

40

6

5

Will Labour form a 2 term government?

May 23, 12:47 PMSep 1, 10:59 PM

33%chance

235221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1447

713

During the next Labour government, will there be a Foreign Secretary serving from the House of Lords?

Apr 17, 4:51 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

13.99%chance

161715

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1810

784

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Aug 3, 11:25 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

30.74%chance

231305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

963

Will UK children face a social media curfew before 2029?

Jun 9, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.13%chance

7956

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1823

549

Will all Five Eyes countries be governed by red parties before the end of Trump’s second term?

Apr 28, 10:24 PMJan 20, 5:00 PM

38.58%chance

15583

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1143

899

Hipkins+Luxon+Peters all leaders on day of next election?

Dec 23, 6:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.65%chance

4119

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

978

The Labour Party will win the next UK election (2023/4) and then govern for more than 8 contiguous years

Jun 11, 10:06 PMJun 11, 11:59 PM

35.8%chance

675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

154

111

Labour rules out Nz First for 2026 nz election?

Dec 23, 6:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70%chance

562

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

84

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