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Prediction markets for Labour government

Who will be the next British Prime Minister following a General Election?

Sep 29, 9:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9078712

OptionProbability

Nigel Farage

Keir Starmer

Other

Matt Clifford

Robert Jenrick

Kemi Badenoch

Angela Rayner

Andy Burnham

Zack Polanski

Ed Miliband

Wes Streeting

James Cleverly

Ed Davey

Boris Johnson

Louise Haigh

Lawrence Newport

Rachel Reeves

Danny Kruger

Jeremy Clarkson

Jeremy Corbyn

Richard Tice

Rupert Lowe

Idris Elba

35

17

14

5

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

If Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028?

Jun 4, 4:21 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

38.06%chance

3738309

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1276

784

Will a "lifetime smoking ban" become law in the UK before the next General Election after July 2024?

May 31, 1:56 PMMay 7, 10:59 PM

85%chance

5912503

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2380

420

Will Labour form a 2 term government?

May 23, 12:47 PMSep 1, 10:59 PM

45.12%chance

204892

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

907

After the 2026 New Zealand general election, which parties will form a government?

Aug 22, 12:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

194655

OptionProbability

National

ACT

Labour

NZ First

Greens

Te Pāti Māori

Opportunities (TOP)

NewZeal

Legalise Cannabis

New Conservative

55

49

44

44

41

26

5

2

2

2

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2025?

Jul 11, 6:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.43%chance

43450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4870

821

During the next Labour government, will there be a Foreign Secretary serving from the House of Lords?

Apr 17, 4:51 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

14.46%chance

151665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1760

792

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Aug 3, 11:25 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

30.74%chance

231305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

963

Will UK children face a social media curfew before 2029?

Jun 9, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.13%chance

7956

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1823

549

Will all Five Eyes countries be governed by red parties before the end of Trump’s second term?

Apr 28, 10:24 PMJan 20, 5:00 PM

38.58%chance

14433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1143

899

The Labour Party will win the next UK election (2023/4) and then govern for more than 8 contiguous years

Jun 11, 10:06 PMJun 11, 11:59 PM

35.8%chance

675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

154

111

When will the next UK general election be held?

Dec 16, 12:31 AMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2026

Before Jan 2027

Before Jan 2028

Before Jan 2029

Before Jan 2030

50

50

50

50

50

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