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Prediction markets for Labour
If Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028?
Jun 4, 4:21 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
40.36%chance
3637759
OptionVotes
1216
823
Will Keir Starmer lead the Labour party into the next General Election?
Jan 6, 4:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
40%chance
5514278
OptionVotes
1225
816
If Zack Polanski becomes leader of the Green Party (UK), how many Labour MPs will defect to the Greens?
Jun 3, 10:10 AMJun 3, 10:04 AM
2410177
OptionProbability
44
31
22
2
1
0
Will the Scottish Labour Party be the second largest party in Holyrood after the next election?
May 17, 5:42 PMMay 7, 10:59 PM
47.31%chance
219695
OptionVotes
1232
723
OptionVotes
1103
907
Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?
Jan 24, 6:49 AMOct 14, 11:00 AM
72.03%chance
212874
OptionVotes
1705
426
Will Labour's planned inheritance tax on UK farms over £1m be scrapped before April 2026?
Nov 4, 8:57 AMApr 30, 10:59 PM
7.01%chance
102777
OptionVotes
3641
275
Neural Nets will be better at typical manual labour tasks than humans by the end of 2025
Mar 28, 10:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4.13%chance
282581
OptionVotes
3462
765
During the next Labour government, will there be a Foreign Secretary serving from the House of Lords?
Apr 17, 4:51 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
14.46%chance
151665
OptionVotes
1760
792
Will the next female Prime Minister of the UK be from the Labour party?
Feb 13, 5:04 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
59.89%chance
301557
OptionVotes
1363
640
OptionVotes
1506
664
Will "Cheap Labour Everywhere " make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Oct 18, 3:17 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
11.57%chance
4207
OptionVotes
1207
970