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Prediction markets for Labour
If Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028?
Jun 4, 4:21 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
27.3%chance
4142059
OptionVotes
1632
613
Will Keir Starmer lead the Labour party into the next General Election?
Jan 6, 4:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
20%chance
7120586
OptionVotes
2000
500
Will the Scottish Labour Party be the second largest party in Holyrood after the next election?
May 17, 5:42 PMMay 7, 10:59 PM
36.88%chance
219863
OptionVotes
1485
567
Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?
Jan 24, 6:49 AMOct 14, 11:00 AM
74.2%chance
248144
OptionVotes
1780
399
OptionVotes
1638
630
During the next Labour government, will there be a Foreign Secretary serving from the House of Lords?
Apr 17, 4:51 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
13.99%chance
161715
OptionVotes
1810
784
Will the next female Prime Minister of the UK be from the Labour party?
Feb 13, 5:04 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
59.89%chance
301557
OptionVotes
1363
640
New Zealand Labour forms a government in 2026 without requiring support from Te Pāti Māori
Mar 21, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24.62%chance
5854
OptionVotes
1750
571
OptionVotes
1506
664
If Labour wins the 2026 NZ general election, they are dependent on support from Te Pāti Māori to govern
Mar 21, 5:34 PMNov 21, 11:59 PM
62.64%chance
4411
OptionVotes
1295
772
Will "Cheap Labour Everywhere " make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Oct 18, 3:17 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
11.57%chance
4207
OptionVotes
1207
970
OptionVotes
182
55