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Prediction markets for Labour
If Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028?
Jun 4, 4:21 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
42%chance
3738376
OptionVotes
1175
851
Will Keir Starmer lead the Labour party into the next General Election?
Jan 6, 4:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
33%chance
6117628
OptionVotes
1425
702
Will the Scottish Labour Party be the second largest party in Holyrood after the next election?
May 17, 5:42 PMMay 7, 10:59 PM
44.66%chance
219741
OptionVotes
1307
689
Will Labour's planned inheritance tax on UK farms over £1m be scrapped before April 2026?
Nov 4, 8:57 AMApr 30, 10:59 PM
96.26%chance
125334
OptionVotes
5076
197
OptionVotes
1447
713
Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?
Jan 24, 6:49 AMOct 14, 11:00 AM
83.3%chance
213615
OptionVotes
2208
285
During the next Labour government, will there be a Foreign Secretary serving from the House of Lords?
Apr 17, 4:51 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
13.99%chance
161715
OptionVotes
1810
784
Will the next female Prime Minister of the UK be from the Labour party?
Feb 13, 5:04 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
59.89%chance
301557
OptionVotes
1363
640
OptionVotes
1506
664
Will "Cheap Labour Everywhere " make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Oct 18, 3:17 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
11.57%chance
4207
OptionVotes
1207
970
Will Labour recieve more party vote than Greens, ACT and NZ first combined in the 2026 NZ election?
Jan 29, 2:27 AMNov 6, 11:59 PM
64.59%chance
4101
OptionVotes
1098
942
Will Labour and National combined recieve 70.00% or more of the party vote in the 2026 NZ election?
Jan 29, 2:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
20.79%chance
211
OptionVotes
1010
962