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Prediction markets for Labs

Will I deem Donut Lab's solid state battery claims in their video to have been false one year from now?

Jan 6, 7:00 AMJan 6, 9:59 PM

93.18%chance

8926048

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9311

4632

Will HOC beat the big AI labs to AGI?

Sep 8, 4:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.12%chance

2117206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4822

207

Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?

Jul 15, 7:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.03%chance

9112035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2562

536

Will one AI lab pull ahead before 2028?

Sep 27, 1:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.51%chance

868872

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1441

694

Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?

May 10, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.7%chance

298803

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15025

6656

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Jan 8, 2:26 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

268762

OptionProbability

Never or after 1/1/2030

1/1/2028-12/31/2028

1/1/2029-12/31/2029

1/1/2027-12/31/2027

1/1/2026-12/31/2026

Before 2026

83

8

8

7

4

0

In what year will an AI Lab in China build Artificial General Intelligence?

Mar 25, 1:29 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

217452

OptionProbability

2028-2030

2031-2033

2025-2027

2034-2036

2037-2040

31

26

15

15

13

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

17.78%chance

276710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2154

466

Will McDonald's offer a lab-grown / cultivated cell meat product by the end of 2030?

Apr 5, 6:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.35%chance

361816

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2632

1528

Hassabis's Isomorphic Labs will get a drug to FDA stage 3 or better by mid 2031

Jan 23, 6:16 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

44%chance

9898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

886

Any American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?

Feb 25, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.65%chance

24867

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

979

If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?

Sep 27, 10:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.64%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

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