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Labs News

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Jun 2, 10:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.29%chance

14818058

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10070

9929

Will HOC beat the big AI labs to AGI?

Sep 8, 4:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.62%chance

1913344

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3256

307

Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?

Jul 15, 7:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.28%chance

8911284

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3759

339

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Jan 8, 2:26 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

216394

OptionProbability

Never or after 1/1/2030

1/1/2026-12/31/2026

1/1/2029-12/31/2029

1/1/2027-12/31/2027

1/1/2028-12/31/2028

Before 2026

68

8

8

7

7

0

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not

Jan 6, 1:02 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

394773

OptionProbability

Never or on/after 1/1/2029

1/1/2027 - 12/31/2028

1/1/2025 - 12/31/2026

Before 2025

69

26

4

1

In what year will an AI Lab in China build Artificial General Intelligence?

Mar 25, 1:29 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

184469

OptionProbability

2025-2027

2028-2030

2031-2033

2034-2036

2037-2040

29

26

21

13

11

If Covid is a lab leak, which lab did it leak from?

Dec 30, 11:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

221641

OptionProbability

Wuhan Institute of Virology, Wuchang campus

Wuhan Institute of Virology, Jiangxia campus

Wuhan CDC

UNC

Fort Detrick

Wuhan Institute of Biological Products

Wuhan University

Other

VECTOR lab in Russia

Canadian National Microbiology Lab in Winnipeg, Manitoba

Huazhong Agricultural University in Wuhan

30

15

15

13

11

5

4

3

2

2

2

Will McDonald's offer a lab-grown / cultivated cell meat product by the end of 2030?

Apr 5, 6:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.89%chance

341434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2250

1738

Will a top US AI lab be nationalized by 2030?

Aug 27, 3:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.45%chance

301170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1211

542

WIll I work (at some point) at a top AI lab on safety in the next 5 years?

May 27, 2:14 PMMay 26, 11:59 PM

73.57%chance

12508

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1234

1021

Hassabis's Isomorphic Labs will get a drug to FDA stage 3 or better by mid 2031

Jan 23, 6:16 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

54%chance

3180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1083

923

If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?

Sep 27, 10:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.64%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

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