OptionProbability
call someone retarded through text or speech
Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)
A literal red line on the ground/floor
complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Initiates low intensity conflict with Venezuela
classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire
Weaponize Federal Procurement: Launch a DOJ criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell’s $2.5B renovation probity, while simultaneously accepting $400M in private corporate donations for the White House 'State Ballroom'.
Not pardon SBF
repeal or reform the dietary guidelines
explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue
request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts
Causes Tina Peters' early release
complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Says 6 7 (or variant)
pass 500 or more executive orders
intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican
put his name on a ship in the navy
new blockade of a country
Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)
refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state
have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally
sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission
forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc
request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts
Pardon himself
Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest
complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Stays alive
request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts
sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries
File lawsuit against a congressperson
declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country
resume buying oil from Russia
Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws
Dep
call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician
have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025
Revoke ten or more citizenships
ten or more protestors killed during term
Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities
Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program
Mandate teaching Arabic numerals in East (American) Samoan schools
Raise the retirement age for social security
closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)
order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen
Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)
Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)
Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)
Nominate a family member to high office
Appoint a crony, such as Bondi, or his personal lawyers, to SCOTUS
have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason
Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson
Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture
get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia
Call for the end of the Senate
Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025
Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)
Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.
add a new federal holiday in his honor
have a journalist arrested
Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress
Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere
Postpone the elections due to emergency
Trump will pardon those involved before the sentencing - medical fraud schemes
Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO
call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech
remove a major non NATO ally from the current list
Pardon a convicted pedophile
repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025
End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)
host putin at mar a lago
Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)
Salute Putin
Enforce the Comstock Act at least once
Raise contribution limits (FEC)
federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)
force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt
complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
postpones or cancels 2026 senate elections in at least one state
Announce he’s running for a third term
repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)
Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill
issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future
department of defense renamed to Dept of war
Get rid of Noaa.
force a former president to testify before Congress
appoint a family member to lead any federal agency
Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime
Kidnap *another* head of state (after Maduro)
enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like
Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground
Deploy US troops into any of 83 Federal subjects of Russian Federation (or announce that)
Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment
Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)
revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like
Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics
Implement a federal age of consent
Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps
Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.
Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election
federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms
All 10 of the 10 largest protests in the USA happen under trump
Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis
repeal Obamacare
pardon derek chauvin
admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely
Add a citizenship question to the census
confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person
debank a congressperson governor or mayor
Enact price controls on groceries
announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA
expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new
Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025
Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons
actually disinter bodies from another country
Call for the end of child marriage
Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day
stops all sanctions on Russia
Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906
change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again
orders arrests of any Biden family member
delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday
Prosecute someone for flag burning
His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory
cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down
Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.
Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education
Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security
Prevent the VA from covering abortion services
Replace his Vice President
Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt
Causes derek chauvin's early release
declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon
Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection
cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason
Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture
Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)
Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)
Attack a NATO ally.
Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)
expand the borders of the usa
remove tax exempt from only certain religions
have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed
threaten to disinter bodies from another country
all time high unemployment reached
Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)
fauci in jail at least one week
take control of a part of ukraine
pardon george santos
take state ownership in an airline
Withdraw from NATO
Call for the death penalty of any former president by name
Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990
Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency
ban trans people from holding federal offices
changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)
change or add a face on Mount Rushmore
Annex any part of Mexico
ends black history month
Eliminate the DOE Loan Program
Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act
take control of a part of greenland
ban all new incoming students from china and/or india
Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard
Call for the end of gay marriage
Fully or partially privatize Social Security
Call for the end of the House of Reps
Pardon p diddy
make statements that are negative about labubu
Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation
Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment
breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza
Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war
fully nationalize an airline
New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)
Pardon ghislaine maxwell
stop California from hosting the Olympics
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics
Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
declares a white history month
Implement a federal abortion ban
Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC
Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation
confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself
Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA
change the borders of a state
breaks ground on a trump building in Russia
repeal an amendment
Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.
give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia
add a new state
enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea
After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy
Call for the end of interracial marriage
Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
bans anime
Wearing a white dress after labor day
Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace
bans 6 7
Kidnap the Pope
100
100
100
100
100
95
95
91
88
88
88
86
83
81
80
80
76
75
72
71
71
70
70
69
69
66
64
62
62
60
57
55
53
52
50
49
48
47
44
42
42
40
39
38
38
37
36
36
36
36
35
34
34
34
33
33
33
33
31
30
30
30
30
30
29
29
29
29
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
26
26
26
26
26
26
25
24
24
24
22
22
22
21
21
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
OptionProbability
On Earth
Before 2045
Before WW3
Before we have an universal flu vaccine
Before me
In the US
Before we get ASI
After his presidency
After Mitch McConnell
In the Eastern time zone
Natural causes
When BTC is above $80.000
When TRUMP Coin is below $1.0
Surrounded by his friends and loved ones
Before potato2017 gets a world record in any competitive achievement leaderboard in the online game tetr.io
In a hospital
Before we get AGI
Closer to Venus than to Mars
in bed
At or greater than 20m above sea level (using https://en-gb.topographic-map.com/map-nb18/United-States/ to verify if necessary)
After Joe Biden
After Chuck Grassley
After Bernie Sanders
When BTC is below $100.000
While he is on a GLP-1
After Jim Risch
After Angus King
After Dick Durbin
In his sleep
In Florida
Closer to Venus than to the Sun
After he announced he is sick
After my Manifold account has been inactive for 12+ months
Mar-a-Lago
In a way that Manifold finds suspicious, according to a Manifold poll
Before 2030
Closer to Mars than to the Sun
While in office
In front of a camera
While mercury is in retrograde
Within 6 months of leaving office
On a Sunday
On a Monday
On a Tuesday
On a Wednesday
On a Thursday
On a Friday
On a Saturday
By assassination
After 2035
The White House
After a stroke in public
2034
Outside (not in a vehicle or building)
After 2040
While doing a speech
2030
During WW3
With a bullet inside his body
2032
2029
2031
2033
On an airplane
2035
2037
In New Jersey
2035
On TV
2038
2028
2027
2039
After J D Vance dies
Killed because a deal went sideways
2026
While doing a funny dance
In Qatar
While having sex
On a gold toilet
In Russia
He will become effectively immortal
Food poisoning
In Greenland
Before the midterms 2026
2025
Q2, 2026
Before ending World Cup 2026
99
98
97
96
95
93
84
83
82
79
79
78
77
76
75
72
70
68
65
61
53
50
47
45
45
45
45
45
43
38
37
33
31
27
25
23
23
20
18
17
16
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
13
13
12
11
10
10
10
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
6
5
5
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
0
0
0
OptionProbability
❤️ Heart disease
😨 Stroke
Dementia
Other
He dies in Mar a Lago, but details don't get public.
🔫 Assassination
💊 Cancer
👴 Peacefully in his sleep (old age)
🏊Drowning (non assasination)
✈️Aircraft crash
🚗 Car crash
🦾 Shoggoth/AI
22
21
13
11
9
8
7
3
2
2
1
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2525
57
OptionProbability
NY state criminal trial
GA state criminal trial
Mar-a-Lago documents trial
January 6 trial in DC
100
5
1
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1381
886
OptionProbability
Bibi Netanyahu
MBS
Recep Erdogan
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Vladimir Putin
Victor Orban (again)
Xi Jinping
Rishi Sunak
100
60
60
59
36
36
29
7
OptionVotes
YES
NO
254
111
OptionVotes
YES
NO
224
45
OptionVotes
YES
NO
265
38
OptionProbability
Other
Delhi, India
Dhaka, Bangladesh
Tokyo, Japan
Kinshasa, DRC
Kolkata, India
Karachi, Pakistan
Lagos, Nigeria
Mumbai, India
Shanghai, PRC
26
22
9
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
OptionVotes
YES
NO
134
75
