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Prediction markets for Land Forces

Will Ukraine control any part of Crimea for at least a week before the end of 2025?

Jan 1, 8:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7%chance

4819466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3645

274

War with Iran, China, or Russia? (+ US president 2024)

May 11, 3:20 PMJan 7, 7:59 AM

449210

OptionProbability

Republican in 2024 + War pre-2029

Republican in 2024 + NO War pre-2029

Democrat in 2024 + NO War pre-2029

Democrat in 2024 + War pre-2029

75

24

1

0

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

42%chance

372766

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1206

796

Will a Boom Supersonic beat SpaceX to COMMERCIAL super-sonic suborbital flight? (see description for terms)

Dec 9, 4:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.83%chance

121672

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1011

970

By when will the Israel-Iran ceasefire be broken? [Polymarket]

Jun 26, 1:41 AMSep 1, 3:59 AM

19989

OptionProbability

Wednesday, December 31

Friday, October 31

Sunday, August 31

Friday, June 27

Friday, July 11

Thursday, July 31

50

41

10

0

0

0

What organization will be the first to land a human on Mars?

Aug 4, 11:42 PMDec 28, 7:59 AM

18650

OptionProbability

SpaceX

US government

Chinese government

Other

European Space Agency

Blue Origin

Russian government

Indian government

Turkish Space Agency

Japanese government

46

30

21

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

Biden passes away in a foreign country or in flight on Air Force One by end 2026

Oct 16, 8:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.67%chance

7488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

511

97

If the US defends Taiwan from Chinese invasion, will there be American strikes on Chinese soil?

Dec 17, 1:09 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

82.9%chance

6195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

217

64

Great Hwan Empire or Proto-Finnic Holy Roman Khaganate reformation attempt?

Jul 8, 3:45 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

43.14%chance

3164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1148

871

Will GPT-5 be able to come up with a carefully strategic plan for the game of Colonel Blotto?

Dec 7, 11:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.37%chance

8123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

357

290

Which European countries will deploy naval vessels to the Pacific in 2024 and/or 2025?

Jan 17, 9:12 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

658

OptionProbability

Russia

UK

France

Italy

Germany

Spain

Poland

Netherlands

Norway

Greece

Denmark

Portugal

Turkey

Belgium

100

100

100

100

64

60

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

24

What is the probability of dying in Snake Eyes Variant NNN?

Jun 24, 6:58 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

339

OptionProbability

≥1/2

1/36

Undefined

Other

44

20

18

18

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