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Prediction markets for Later

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.86%chance

4515871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15703

6520

If Trump is elected President in 2024, will he have an approval rating higher than 50% one year later?

Jan 20, 1:23 AMJan 20, 3:59 PM

2.46%chance

3912263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3668

833

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 50% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 9:55 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

30%chance

667690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

If someone launches a competitor to Manifold, will I judge it to have been at least as successful two years later?

Oct 21, 5:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.66%chance

251949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1129

936

Will the Grand Theft Auto 6 release be delayed until August 1st 2026 or later?

May 5, 3:01 PMAug 2, 3:59 AM

32.39%chance

241118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2099

1666

Will "Store Now Decrypt Later" attacks be responsible for the theft of >$1B of funds by 2030?

Mar 20, 10:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.82%chance

11682

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1566

812

Will the first $10 Trillion company be one that started Jan 1st 2024 or later?

Mar 22, 4:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.29%chance

15499

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1436

894

Will a third party get more than 25% of the popular vote in a presidential election no later than 2040?

Sep 15, 1:33 AMDec 2, 7:59 AM

35.08%chance

8400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

735

If I set up a Twitter account that posts a Magic: The Gathering rules question every day, will it have at least 200 followers a month later?

Dec 17, 3:34 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

74.25%chance

16326

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1184

918

If I update my Manifold FAQ, will I think it was time well spent a month later?

Nov 18, 5:05 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

50.26%chance

19312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1053

939

If I set up a Twitter account that posts a Magic: The Gathering rules question every day, will it have at least 400 followers a month later?

Dec 17, 2:59 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

57.96%chance

14273

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1092

926

Will the new CEO of 3M (Bill Brown) still be the CEO 2 years later?

Mar 12, 6:42 PMMar 14, 3:59 AM

70.07%chance

553

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

65

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