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Prediction markets for Later

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.74%chance

4615921

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15753

6501

If I infect myself with Alpha-Gal syndrome, will I regret it 6 months later?

Dec 2, 4:27 AMJan 2, 5:04 AM

81.06%chance

6510347

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2069

483

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 50% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 9:55 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

28.72%chance

677738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1576

635

If the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran falls by 2030, will Reza Pahlavi lead the new government a year later?

Jan 8, 12:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.29%chance

252294

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1624

788

If someone launches a competitor to Manifold, will I judge it to have been at least as successful two years later?

Oct 21, 5:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.66%chance

251949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1129

936

Will "Store Now Decrypt Later" attacks be responsible for the theft of >$1B of funds by 2030?

Mar 20, 10:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.82%chance

11682

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1566

812

Will the first $10 Trillion company be one that started Jan 1st 2024 or later?

Mar 22, 4:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.16%chance

16579

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1456

892

On April 13, 2029 will Apophis’ approach “thread the keyhole” such that it will impact earth 7 years later?

Apr 15, 12:23 AMApr 22, 3:59 AM

4.81%chance

7480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

676

135

Will a third party get more than 25% of the popular vote in a presidential election no later than 2040?

Sep 15, 1:33 AMDec 2, 7:59 AM

33.45%chance

9450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1410

709

If I update my Manifold FAQ, will I think it was time well spent a month later?

Nov 18, 5:05 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

47.79%chance

20362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

891

If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 10 years later?

Nov 7, 9:06 PMNov 15, 7:59 AM

5135

OptionProbability

>8x FLOP/s per dollar

2-4x FLOP/s per dollar

4-8x FLOP/s per dollar

0.5-1x FLOP/s per dollar

1-2x FLOP/s per dollar

<0.5x FLOP/s per dollar

29

24

18

11

11

8

Manifold+Goodreads - mc-ul - I add new books to read, later resolve to my rating. I won't look at your positions

Dec 3, 11:44 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2120

OptionProbability

The King of Elfland's Daughter

Theft of Fire by Michael Edelson

Invisible China - Rozelle & Hell

The Idiot - Dostoyevsky

The Conservative Futurist - Pethokoukis

Burn Math Class

90

83

80

55

50

50

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