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Prediction markets for Later

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.86%chance

4515871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15703

6520

If I infect myself with Alpha-Gal syndrome, will I regret it 6 months later?

Dec 2, 4:27 AMJan 2, 5:04 AM

86.68%chance

649599

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2551

392

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 50% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 9:55 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

30%chance

667690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

If someone launches a competitor to Manifold, will I judge it to have been at least as successful two years later?

Oct 21, 5:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.66%chance

251949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1129

936

If the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran falls by 2030, will Reza Pahlavi lead the new government a year later?

Jan 8, 12:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.13%chance

181543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1341

866

Will "Store Now Decrypt Later" attacks be responsible for the theft of >$1B of funds by 2030?

Mar 20, 10:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.82%chance

11682

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1566

812

Will the Grand Theft Auto 6 release be delayed until December 1st 2026 or later?

May 5, 9:15 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

27.72%chance

12570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

161

62

Will the first $10 Trillion company be one that started Jan 1st 2024 or later?

Mar 22, 4:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.96%chance

16549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1486

889

Will a third party get more than 25% of the popular vote in a presidential election no later than 2040?

Sep 15, 1:33 AMDec 2, 7:59 AM

35.08%chance

8400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

735

Will the first $10 Trillion company be one that started Jan 1st 2020 or later?

Mar 22, 4:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.31%chance

9315

OptionVotes

YES

NO

583

192

If I update my Manifold FAQ, will I think it was time well spent a month later?

Nov 18, 5:05 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

50.26%chance

19312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1053

939

Manifold+Goodreads - mc-ul - I add new books to read, later resolve to my rating. I won't look at your positions

Dec 3, 11:44 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2120

OptionProbability

The King of Elfland's Daughter

Theft of Fire by Michael Edelson

Invisible China - Rozelle & Hell

The Idiot - Dostoyevsky

The Conservative Futurist - Pethokoukis

Burn Math Class

90

83

80

55

50

50

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