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Prediction markets for Launch

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.41%chance

1012562053

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16960

13059

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM

6%chance

125234855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4062

893

Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?

Mar 22, 1:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27167060

OptionProbability

No

Yes

99

1

When will MNX mainnet launch?

Feb 18, 9:37 PMDec 31, 9:35 PM

5381931

OptionProbability

July 2026

August 2026

Other

September 2026

June 2026

March 2026

April 2026

May 2026

40

34

10

9

5

1

1

1

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

Nov 6, 4:14 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

17.86%chance

8447650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13082

6312

Will the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.53%chance

10437916

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19138

903

Will Revolut launch a US Dollar stablecoin in 2026? [Ṁ10k liquidity]

Jan 25, 10:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.59%chance

3431249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15425

6483

Will Starship launch one hundred times by 2030?

Apr 22, 2:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

47.59%chance

6524407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

992

Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:55 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM

1.96%chance

3516750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8275

457

Will there be an Atlas V launch failure before retirement?

Jun 11, 2:20 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

18.79%chance

1515784

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10697

2759

What range will Polymarket token FDV fall in one week after launch?

Jan 29, 1:58 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

56573

OptionProbability

Over $8B

$4B-$6B

$2B-$4B

$6B-$8B

N/A

Under $2B

53

14

9

9

8

7

Will Polymarket launch its official token in 2026?

May 13, 3:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.36%chance

324703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7741

4591

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