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Prediction markets for Launch

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.28%chance

1007559653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17140

12691

Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?

Mar 22, 1:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24148516

OptionProbability

No

Yes

99

1

When will MNX mainnet launch?

Feb 18, 9:37 PMDec 31, 9:35 PM

3656278

OptionProbability

Other

July 2026

August 2026

September 2026

June 2026

May 2026

March 2026

April 2026

26

22

18

17

12

3

1

1

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

Nov 6, 4:14 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

20.12%chance

8245799

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11819

6607

Will Sora have ads two years after launch?

Oct 1, 5:16 PMSep 30, 5:12 PM

9.36%chance

4843292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31117

3214

How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?

Aug 2, 1:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3142700

OptionProbability

4 or more

5 or more

6 or more

7 or more

10 or more

15 or more

20 or more

79

60

35

19

8

5

2

Will the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.91%chance

10434916

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16138

955

Will Revolut launch a US Dollar stablecoin in 2026? [Ṁ10k liquidity]

Jan 25, 10:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.56%chance

3025188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11155

8965

Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:55 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM

1.96%chance

3516750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8275

457

Will there be an Atlas V launch failure before retirement?

Jun 11, 2:20 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

18.79%chance

1515784

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10697

2759

What range will Polymarket token FDV fall in one week after launch?

Jan 29, 1:58 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

45573

OptionProbability

Over $8B

$4B-$6B

$2B-$4B

$6B-$8B

Under $2B

N/A

53

13

9

9

8

8

Will there be any successful manned mission to Mars launched by any country/private company by 2040 ?

Mar 8, 2:27 PMDec 16, 2:59 AM

40.49%chance

21686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

947

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