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Prediction markets for Launch

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.58%chance

1041626074

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16994

12988

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM

6.5%chance

127235217

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3804

910

Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?

Mar 22, 1:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40208144

OptionProbability

No

Yes

99

1

How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?

Aug 2, 1:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66156112

OptionProbability

3 or more

4 or more

5 or more

6 or more

7 or more

10 or more

15 or more

20 or more

99

92

38

7

2

2

2

0

Will Revolut launch a US Dollar stablecoin in 2026? [Ṁ10k liquidity]

Jan 25, 10:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.76%chance

4856873

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12570

7955

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

Nov 6, 4:14 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

18.6%chance

8948759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12640

6410

Will the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.65%chance

10539005

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18052

920

Will Starship launch one hundred times by 2030?

Apr 22, 2:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

49%chance

6526507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1391

1024

Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:55 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM

2.17%chance

3517355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7670

470

Will there be an Atlas V launch failure before retirement?

Jun 11, 2:20 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

18.74%chance

1615804

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10717

2754

Will Polymarket launch its official token in 2026?

May 13, 3:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.61%chance

4011304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13991

2467

What range will Polymarket token FDV fall in one week after launch?

Jan 29, 1:58 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

56573

OptionProbability

Over $8B

$4B-$6B

$2B-$4B

$6B-$8B

N/A

Under $2B

53

14

9

9

8

7

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