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Prediction markets for Launch

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.71%chance

1027576874

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16813

13371

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM

5.91%chance

126234905

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4112

889

Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?

Mar 22, 1:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29192203

OptionProbability

No

Yes

99

1

How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?

Aug 2, 1:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61126091

OptionProbability

3 or more

4 or more

5 or more

6 or more

7 or more

10 or more

15 or more

20 or more

97

80

40

8

4

1

1

1

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

Nov 6, 4:14 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

16.88%chance

8748408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13712

6179

Will Revolut launch a US Dollar stablecoin in 2026? [Ṁ10k liquidity]

Jan 25, 10:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.36%chance

4343060

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13822

7235

Will the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.53%chance

10437916

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19138

903

Will Starship launch one hundred times by 2030?

Apr 22, 2:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

49%chance

6526507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1391

1024

Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:55 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM

1.96%chance

3516750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8275

457

Will there be an Atlas V launch failure before retirement?

Jun 11, 2:20 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

18.74%chance

1615804

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10717

2754

Will Polymarket launch its official token in 2026?

May 13, 3:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.47%chance

377219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10111

3469

What range will Polymarket token FDV fall in one week after launch?

Jan 29, 1:58 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

56573

OptionProbability

Over $8B

$4B-$6B

$2B-$4B

$6B-$8B

N/A

Under $2B

53

14

9

9

8

7

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