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Prediction markets for Launch

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.11%chance

991553528

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16108

11756

Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?

Mar 22, 1:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2358262

OptionProbability

No

Yes

97

3

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

Nov 6, 4:14 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

18.58%chance

8245599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12653

6407

Will the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3%chance

10431813

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11415

1071

Will Revolut launch a US Dollar stablecoin in 2026? [Ṁ10k liquidity]

Jan 25, 10:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.08%chance

2523461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10425

9593

Will Polymarket launch a stablecoin before 2027?

Jul 22, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.4%chance

2518604

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17614

5685

Will there be an Atlas V launch failure before retirement?

Jun 11, 2:20 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

18.79%chance

1515784

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10697

2759

Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:55 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM

3.37%chance

3514386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5497

530

When will Kalshi launch a crypto platform?

Aug 25, 5:56 PMDec 31, 6:45 PM

1214366

OptionProbability

2026 H1

2026 H2

After 2027 or never

2027

2025

37

28

18

14

3

Will Sora have ads two years after launch?

Oct 1, 5:16 PMSep 30, 5:12 PM

58.04%chance

2211675

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11762

8502

What range will Polymarket token FDV fall in one week after launch?

Jan 29, 1:58 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

45073

OptionProbability

Over $8B

$4B-$6B

$2B-$4B

$6B-$8B

Under $2B

N/A

51

14

10

10

8

8

Will OpenAI make significant changes OR discontinue Sora due to "long-term user satisfaction," two years after launch?

Oct 1, 6:00 PMSep 30, 5:51 PM

111815

OptionProbability

OpenAI makes significant changes to Sora

OpenAI discontinues Sora

51

36

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