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Prediction markets for Launch

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.78%chance

940538591

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16043

11887

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

Nov 6, 4:14 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

20.63%chance

7944509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11563

6673

Will the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.44%chance

10026053

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5568

1357

Will Starship launch one hundred times by 2030?

Apr 22, 2:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

39%chance

5322554

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1659

813

Will Polymarket launch a stablecoin before 2027?

Jul 22, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.5%chance

2318351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17567

5700

Will there be an Atlas V launch failure before retirement?

Jun 11, 2:20 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

18.53%chance

1515688

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10793

2737

When will Kalshi launch a crypto platform?

Aug 25, 5:56 PMDec 31, 6:45 PM

1214216

OptionProbability

2026 H1

2026 H2

After 2027 or never

2027

2025

38

27

18

14

3

Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:55 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM

2.52%chance

3213321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6849

490

Will Revolut launch a US Dollar stablecoin in 2026? [Ṁ10k liquidity]

Jan 25, 10:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.03%chance

107323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11745

8514

Will Sora have ads two years after launch?

Oct 1, 5:16 PMSep 30, 5:12 PM

53.33%chance

156620

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10689

9355

What range will Polymarket token FDV fall in one week after launch?

Jan 29, 1:58 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

45073

OptionProbability

Over $8B

$4B-$6B

$2B-$4B

$6B-$8B

Under $2B

N/A

51

14

10

10

8

8

Will OpenAI make significant changes OR discontinue Sora due to "long-term user satisfaction," two years after launch?

Oct 1, 6:00 PMSep 30, 5:51 PM

8735

OptionProbability

OpenAI makes significant changes to Sora

OpenAI discontinues Sora

51

44

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